The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is expected to be 7.3% lower than in the previous year (145.8 million metric tons). The estimated figure for planted area is 47.4 million hectares, 0.3% more than in 2008 (47.2 million hectares). By area, the total output and the changes expected for 2009, compared to results in 2008 are: South Region, 54.7 million metric tons (-10.8%); Central West Region, 47.1 million metric tons (-7.1%); Southeast Region, 16.8 million metric tons (-4.1%); Northeast Region, 12.9 million metric tons (3.4%) and North Region, 3.8 million metric tons (–1.8%).

In February, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), conducted by IBGE, estimated that, among the 25 products selected, seven faced increase in the estimated output compared to 2008: 2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (16.6%), rice in husk (3.7%), sugarcane (1.1%), onions (4.6%), 1^st harvest beans (grain) (15.8%), 2^nd harvest bens (grain) (11.0%) and cassava (0.3%). Production decrease is expected for eighteen products: herbaceous seed cotton  (17.2%), 1st harvest peanuts in husk (5.2%), oats (grain) (5.1%), 1st harvest potatoes (8.3%), 2nd harvest potatoes (6.6%), 3rd harvest potatoes (1.6%), cacao nuts (5.2%), coffee (grain) (16.0%), barley (grain) (13.0%), 3^rd harvest beans (grain) (6.5%), oranges (1.1%), castor beans (segment) (2.9%), 1^st harvest corn (grain) (15.7%), 2^nd harvest corn (grain (6.2%), soybeans (grain) (3.9%), sorghum (grain) (10.1%), wheat (grain) (15.5%) and triticale (grain)  (17.0%).  

In the February edition of LSPA, the highlights were the positive changes in the estimated production of six products, in comparison with results in January: rice in husk (1.4%), 1^st harvest beans (grain) (-1.6%), 2^nd harvest corn (grain) (11.8%), 1^st harvest corn (grain) (-1.1%), 2^nd harvest corn (grain) (4.9%) and soybeans (grain) (-0.3%).

The harvesting of the main temporary summer crops (soybeans and corn) has already started, specifically in the areas where planting started sooner. The coming surveys will monitor the harvesting of summer crops and the development of the second and third harvests of some products, besides winter crops, whose estimates are based on projections obtained according to the agricultural calendar.

RICE (in husk) – For rice, in this second survey of 2009, the estimated production is 12.6 million metric tons, with increase of 1.4% compared to January. This hike is a consequence of reevaluations in the figures for average yield in the three states of the South Region (RS, SC and PR). The figures obtained in this evaluation are above the ones in 2008. In Rio Grande do Sul, the main producer (with 61.9% of the national production), this crop has had adequate development, favored by the rainy period which, although irregular and of varied intensity, has contributed to maintain moisture levels stable and complete the capacity of reservoirs. It is worth mentioning that, in some areas, especially in Campanha and Fronteira Oeste, there is deficit of water resources and subsequent emptying of dams, which may cause damage to irrigation. Harvesting has already started and, in crops are in the phase of flowering and grain growth. 

BEANS (grain – 1st harvest) -  For 1^st harvest beans, the estimated figure for production in February is about 1.9 million metric tons, surpassing by 15.8% the amount obtained in 2008 (when a total 1.6 million metric tons were harvested), but still 1.6% below the amount reported in the previous month. The slight decrease is probably related to the participation of the Northeast of the country, which was the only area, in this evaluation, to have unfavorable results for this product. This fact reflects the revision of data of Bahia, since, due to the dry period, this state reduced the production figures reported previously by about 30.9%.

BEANS (grain – 2nd harvest) – In terms of 2^nd harvest beans, there has been increase of 11.8% in production in comparison with January (and now estimated as 1.5 million tons), and of 11.0% when compared to the 2008 harvest due, in general, to the good prices of this product in the market. This favorable perspective, at the moment, is clearly influenced by the participation of Paraná, the main producer, which has an increment of production of 40.2%. It is also worth mentioning, however, that the numbers of the national harvest must be analyzed with care, once, due to the agricultural calendar, results of most of the informing Federative Units are based on projections.

Corn (grain – 1st harvest) – In relation to 1st harvest corn, production is expected to reach 33.7 million tons, indicating decrease of 1.1% in relation to the previous estimate. The four main producing Regions (South, South, Northeast and Central West) account for 41.6%, 28.7%, 13.5% and 12.7% of participation in the national production, respectively. An unfavorable scenario has occurred since the beginning of the harvesting period, when the product was affected by the existence of big amounts in stocks and low prices charged. The situation has become worse now, due to the occurrence of climactic irregularities, such as dry periods in the flowering and fruiting phases, which are sensitive to water deficit. Another problem is the occurrence of rain in the beginning of harvests, which can lead to a lower-quality product.

CORN (grain – 2nd harvest) – The estimated production of 2nd harvest corn is 17.6 million tons, 49% above the figure in January. This increment is basically due to the new data relative to Paraná, where there is an estimated production increase of 13.7%, compared to the previously reported figure. It is worth mentioning that, in this state, although planted area has faced decrease of 3.9%, the expected productivity has grown 18.4%. This year, opposite to 2008, the planting of this crop has occurred in the proper period. As a consequence, average yield is expected to have a better performance, as shown in the evaluation. Another important fact is that, in Paraná, the current estimate has surpassed that of Mato Grosso, thus changing the result of main producing state.

SOYBEANS (grain) – For soybeans the estimated production of 57.6 million tons in 2009 is 0.3% lower than that of January. This decrease also includes the damages that harsh climactic conditions (dry period) caused to the crops, especially in the western area of states in the South Region, as well as the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul. The better prices of soybeans reflect the lower world production, and the reduced harvests in Brazil and Argentina.