Production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds may be 7.6% lower than the one obtained in the previous year (145.8 million metric tons).  The area to be harvested may reach 47.6 million hectares, 0.8% major than the one of 2008 (47.2 million hectares).  In the analysis by regions, the production and the changes expected for 2009, in relation to the previous harvest will be: North, 3.8 million metric tons (-1.8%), Northeast, 13.0 million metric tons (4.7%), Southeast, 16.9 million metric tons (-3.5%), South, 53.5 million metric tons (-12.7%) and Central West, 47.5 million metric tons (-6.3%).

In January, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production ¹ , conducted by IBGE estimated that, among the twenty-five products selected, seven recorded hike in the estimate of production in relation to 2008: peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (15.0%), rice in husk (2.2%), sugarcane (0.6%), onions (4.0%), beans in grain 1st harvest (17.7%), castor beans (sector) (14.8%) and cassava (1.4%). A decrease for the other eighteen products is expected: seed cotton (herbaceous) (-16.8%), peanuts in husk 1st harvest (-6.9%), oats in grain (-5.1%), potatoes 1st harvest (-9.9%), potatoes 2nd harvest (-12.8%), potatoes 3rd harvest (-1.6%), cacao (nuts) (-5.2%), coffee in grain (-15.9%), barley in grain (-13.0%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (-0.7%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (-6.5%), orange (-1.0%), corn in grain 1st harvest (-14.8%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (-10.6%), soybeans in grain (-3.6%), sorghum in grain (-8.0%), wheat in grain (-15.5%) and triticale in grain (-17.0%).

Due to the agriculture calendar, the crops of the second and third harvest of some products, as well as the winter crops (wheat, oats, rye and barley), do not yet have a first estimate of production.  The data of these products correspond to a prospect obtained from information of previous years.

In this first evaluation of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2009, a production of 134.7 million metric tons is estimated, lower in 7.6% to the one of the previous year (145.8 million metric tons).  The area to be harvested is 47.6 million hectares, 0.8% bigger than the one of 2008 (47.2 million hectares).  

In the analysis by areas, the volume expected for 2009, in relation to the previous harvest, is distributed as follows: North, 3.8 million metric tons (-1.8%), Northeast, 13.0 million metric tons (4.7%), Southeast, 16.9 million metric tons (-3.5%), South, 53.5 million metric tons (-12.7%) and Central West, 47.5 million metric tons (-6.3%).
 
HERBACEOUS COTTON (in seed) – The first estimate for 2009 is 3.3 million metric tons, compared to 4.0 million metric tons in 2008. This shrinking (-16.8%) occurred, mainly, as a consequence of the diminishment of the area planted, due to the high costs of production, unfavorable financing conditions and low quotations of the plant.  With the exception of Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Pernambuco (with a small participation in the national production) in the other states there were decreases in the tillage.  In Mato Grosso, main producer (48.0% of the national production), there was a decrease of 23.5% in the area planted and 23.4% in the production expected, in relation to 2008.  There, in January, the rains were scarce and badly distributed, with droughts in some areas.

RICE (in husk) - In this first survey of 2009, the production expected is 12.4 million metric tons, with hike of 2.2% compared to 2008.  This trend was already observed in the first evaluations conducted in the end of 2008.  RS, main producer (61.5%), had a hike of 3.4% in the production expected and 2.4% in the area.  In the half south of the state, however, the rains were below the average in November and, in December, there was drought. In the end of December, low temperature at night in some municipalities also might have caused damages.  The evaluations of January for rice are still premature since 68.5% of the area was in a vegetative period and 31.5% in a reproductive development. 

COFFEE (in grain) – The national harvest of coffee to be reaped in 2009 is estimated in 2,363,933 metric tons or 39.4 million bags of 60 kg, compared to 2,809,379 metric tons or 46.8 million bags harvested in 2008, recording a decrease of 15.9%.  The total area planted with the crop is 2,390,438 hectares and the area to be harvested is 2,168,308 hectares.  The average yield is 1,090 kg/ha or 18.1 bags/ha, showing a decrease of 13.8%, characteristic of a year of low production.

The rains of the last quarter of 2008 helped to cause three harvests in the majority of the coffee regions of the Southeast and South (Paraná).  However, with a considerable delay observed in the harvest of  2008 (due to droughts in 2007), a fact which it is not very common in coffee plantations, observing that, in the same coffee plant,  the new harvest had also beans of the harvest 2008.  It is not possible to affirm that this fact caused some damage to the plants.  In some regions the very late grains were not even reaped, increasing the risk of coffee borer beetle, in 2009.  The downturn of the situation of the Brazilian coffee production is more related to the high costs of production of the previous year which contributed to increase the debts of the producers, despite the stability of prices.

BEANS (in grain) 1st harvest – it is expected for 2009 a production of 1.9 million metric tons, higher in 17.7% to the one obtained in 2008 (1.6 million metric tons).  The South Region, even with growth of 24.0% in the area to be harvested, was the only one, until now, to bring an unfavorable scenario, due to damages caused by the drought.  It has been already recorded a reduction of 26.3% in its index of productivity, changing from 1,477 kg/ha reached in 2008 to 1,089 kg/ha estimated for the same period in 2009, which resulted in a decrease in the production of 8.5%.  Paraná is the main producer (15.0% of participation in the first harvest of 2009) and already estimates a reduction of 35.2% in the average yield expected, as a consequence of the drought. 

CORN (in grain) 1st harvest -  A production of 34.1 million metric tons, less in 14.8% to the one of 2008 is expected, mainly due to the lower expectation for the average yield (14.6%), which changed from 4,244 kg/ha obtained in 2008 to 3,624 kg/ha estimated for 2009.  The area cultivated, due to the high costs of production and the low quotation of the product, fell by 2.4% in relation to the same period of planting in 2008.  The drought caused damages to the crop in the main producing areas. 

In Paraná, major national producer (17.6%), there was reduction of 38.2% in the production, as a consequence of the facts presented above and, also due to the drought.  In Rio Grande do Sul, third major producer (13.0%), the crop was affected by the drought, especially in the North and Northeast of the State, resulting in a decrease in the estimate of production of 16.6%. 

SOYBEANS (in grain) - In 2009, the production expected of 57.8 million metric tons recorded a decrease of   3.6% in comparison with 2008.  Similarly to the majority of grains, the crop of soybeans had losses with the unfavorable climatic conditions.  The area to be harvested recorded a hike of 1.0%, while the expected average yield showed a decrease of 4.6%, changing from 2,817 kg/ha, obtained in 2008, to 2,688 kg/ha. 

NOTE

1 - Addressing the demand by users regarding the harvest, the surveys for cereals, legumes and oilseeds now presented were conducted in partnership with the National Food Supply Company – Conab, department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply- MAPA, continuing a process of harmonization of the official estimates of the harvest, initiated in October of 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.