In the series with seasonal adjustment, a decrease of 14.5% was recorded in relation to December 2007.   The industrial production accumulated 3.1% in 2008, with a result below the growth recorded in 2007 (6.0%).

In December 2008, the industrial production decreased by 12.4% compared to November, in the series with seasonal adjustment.  It was the third consecutive negative result in this comparison, accumulating loss of 19.8% from September to December.  In relation to December 2007, the decrease was 14.5% compared to the result of -6.4% recorded in November.  As a consequence, the result for the end of the year was 3.1%, considerably below the result accumulated until September (6.4%).  In the last quarter of 2008 the production decreased by 9.4% in the comparison with the immediately previous period and by 6.2% in relation to Q4, 2007. 

The reduction of 12.4% observed from November to December of 2008 was the most pronounced of the time series (which began in 1991), and led the production to the level recorded in March 2004.  The result showed the negative performance of 27 segments surveyed, with the exception of cellulose and paper (0.4%) and other transportation equipment (6.7%).  The performance of the industry of automotive vehicles, with decrease of 39.7%, was the main negative influence on the overall index, followed by machines and equipment (-19.2%), electronic material and communication equipment (-48.8%), basic metallurgy (-18.3%), rubber and plastic (-20.1%), mining and quarrying (-11.8%) and other chemical products (-9.0%). This scenario of generalized decrease was especially a consequence of the sectors most influenced by credit restrictions and decrease of exports of commodities.

Also in relation to November, the deceleration of the industrial activity increased in December, as confirm the indexes by categories of use, especially durable consumer goods (-20.4% in November and -34.3% in December) and capital goods (-3.9% and -22.2%), with record decreases.  Regarding  intermediate goods (-4.0% and -12.1%), the result of December was the lowest since the result of -13.5% in May/1995 and the fifth consecutive decrease, accumulating loss of 20.6% between July and December; while in semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.0% and -4.2%), the rate of December was the lowest since the value of -4.6% of February / 2005.

In relation to December/2007, the industrial sector decreased by 14.5%, the lowest result of all the time series.  This scenario showed the intensification of the rhythm of decrease and an expansion of the group of segments with negative rates, according to the diffusion index: 70% of the 755 products surveyed recorded decrease in the production, a record result in the time series of this indicator, even with the difference of two more working days in December 2008 in relation to the same month of 2007.  In this comparison, 23 of the 27 segments surveyed recorded decrease with the major influence in the formation of the overall rate coming from automotive vehicles (-59.1%), followed by electronic material and communication equipment (-60.3%), other chemical products (-21.8%), basic metallurgy (-24.5%), mining and quarrying (-21.3%) and rubber and plastic (-31.1%).  It is worth mentioning the collective vacations in some of these segments, particularly the automotive one which is a very important sector regarding intra-industrial production. 

Also in the comparison with December 2007 all the categories of use recorded negative rates.  Durable consumer goods (-42.2%), with a record decrease in the sector, brought the most pronounced fall among the categories, influenced by the items automobiles (-58.9%), mobile telephones (-61.4%) and household appliances (-17.5%), which had record reductions.  The production of intermediate goods (-18.2%) also recorded the lowest time series result, as a consequence of the generalized reduction of its sub-sectors, with the main negative results coming from activities associated to basic metallurgy (-24.5%), automotive vehicles (-49.4%), mining and quarrying (-21.4%), other chemical products (-21.5%) and rubber and plastic (-31.9%).  These numbers show that the most intense adjustments were concentrated in durable and intermediate consumer goods.

The reduction observed in the segment of capital goods (-13.1%) was influenced, mainly, by machines and equipment for industrial use (-31.5%) and for mixed use (-35.0%), this last one influenced mainly by the items of computer equipment and mobile telephones.  The sub-sector of capital goods for transportation (23.3%) maintained a positive result, with the production of airplanes answering for almost the totality of growth, but did not prevent the decrease of the category to break a sequence of twenty-nine months of expansion. The production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.8%) was negative, even that the result was considerably above the decrease observed in the industrial average.  The main negative results came from the groups of semi-durable (-12.0%), with reductions in items of the sectors textiles and footwear; and in other non-durable (-3.4%), with decreases in books and medicines.  On the other hand, the growth of 10.3% in the sub-sector of fuels, influenced by the increase in the production of alcohol, contributed to lessen the overall decrease of the sector.

The quarterly-based indexes confirmed that the industrial sector maintained during 2008 positive rates until the third quarter of the year, even when compared to a base with production in a growing trend, supported in the increase of the domestic demand, in the foreign sales of commodities and in the expansion of investments.  The three first quarters of the year recorded stability in the rhythm of expansion: 6.4% in the first, 6.2% in the second and 6.7% in the third.  In the last quarter of 2008, the industry broke a sequence of 20 quarters of growth, decreasing by 6.2% compared to the same period of  2007, major decrease since the first quarter of 1996 (-9.1%).  For the period October-December, the production of durable consumer goods recorded the most significant loss (-19.5%), followed by intermediate goods (-9.2%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.2%), this category with a negative result, however above the national index (-6.2%). Capital goods (2.9%), although with reduction of rhythm was the only category which maintained a positive result in this comparison.

The semester indicators showed that the index of 3.1% for the year 2008 was a consequence of the percentage of 6.3% of expansion recorded in the first semester, relatively to the same period of 2007, once that in the second semester the growth was almost null (0.2%), influenced by the deceleration of the industrial activity which occurred in a pronounced way in the fourth quarter of the year.  In the end of the year (3.1%), seventeen sectors recorded growth, eleven above the national average.  Among these, the highlight was automotive vehicles (8.2%) followed by machines and equipment (6.0%), other transportation equipment (42.2%), pharmaceuticals (12.7%) and non-metallic minerals (8.3%).  The indexes by categories of use confirmed the major dynamism of the producing segments of capital goods (14.4%), followed by durable consumer goods (3.8%), intermediate goods (1.6%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.4%). 

In summary, the change of the macroeconomic scenario since September had an immediate effect on the industrial activity.  The analysis regarding the performance of the sector in 2008, based on the quarterly moving average indexes, showed two considerably different periods.  In the first one, which covers the period from September 2006 to September 2008, there was a generalized hike of the level of production, with the total sector increasing by 13.6% and all the categories recording gains: capital goods (43.4%), durable consumer goods (20.9%), intermediate goods (9.1%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (6.5%).  In the next period, since October 2008, a significant decrease in the overall production was observed, with a decrease of 9.4% between September and December, a trend recorded by all the categories of use: consumer durable goods (-25.1%), intermediate goods (-10.6%), capital goods (-8.4%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-3.3%).  Deceleration became more evident with the results of the quarterly indexes, in the series seasonally adjusted.  Q4, 2008 compared to the previous quarter, with decrease of 9.4%, broke a sequence of twelve consecutive quarters of increase, a period in which the industrial sector accumulated 16.5%, showing a reversal in a short period of time.  Among the categories of use the deceleration results were: consumer durable goods (-25.1%), intermediate goods (-10.6%), capital goods (-8.4%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-3.3%).