In November 2008, the industrial production fell by 5.2% compared to October, second consecutive negative result, accumulating loss of 7.9% between September and November, in the series with seasonal adjustment.

In November 2008, the industrial production fell by 5.2% compared to October, second consecutive negative result, accumulating loss of 7.9% between September and November, in the series with seasonal adjustment.  In the comparison with November 2007, a reduction of 6.2% was recorded, which broke a cycle of 28 months with positive rates in this comparison. With this, the index accumulated for the period January-November/ 2008 was 4.7%, and the index accumulated in the last 12 months (4.8%) decelerated compared to the result of October (6.0%).

The decrease of 5.2% observed from October to November was the most significant since May 1995 (-11.2%), and made the level of Brazilian industrial production to return to a level close to the one of May/ 2007.  This result reflected the negative performance of 21 among 27 segments surveyed and reached all the categories of use.

The main negative impact came from the industry of automotive vehicles, with decrease of 22.6%, followed by machines and equipment (-11.9%), edition and printing (-14.8%), mining and quarrying (-10.9%) and basic metallurgy (-10.2%).  In November, all these sectors intensified the rhythm of decrease already registered in October, of, respectively, -1.6%, -5.1%, -5.1%, -0.3% and -0.3%.

Also in the comparison with October, the indexes by categories of use confirmed the generalization of the decrease.  Durable consumer goods decreased by 20.4% in the comparison with seasonal adjustment, major reduction since December 1997 (-21.2%), reflecting the influence on this segment of the credit conditions. Capital goods decreased by 4.0%; and intermediate goods, by 3.9%, fourth consecutive reduction, accumulating, between July and November, a loss of 9.6%. The production of semi and non-durable consumer goods, registered a slighter decrease (-0.7%).

The effect of the industrial deceleration in November was clearly negative on the quarterly moving average index (trend indicator).  For the overall industry the rhythm of decrease intensified between October (-0.8%) and November (-2.1%), when the major reduction was recorded since January /1998 (-2.4%).  The result was mainly influenced by the decrease of the production of durable consumer  goods (-7.9%) and intermediate goods (-2.5%), once semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) and capital goods (-0.4%) registered lower reductions.

In the comparison with November 2007, the reduction of 6.2% was the most significant since the result of -6.4% of December 2001, showing an intensification of the rhythm of decrease and an enlargement of the group of segments with decrease in the production.

Among the 27 industrial segments surveyed, 22 brought negative indexes, with the main impacts coming from automotive vehicles (-18.3%), other chemical products (-13.0%), electronic material and communication equipment (-20.5%), office machines and computer equipment (-29.7%) and rubber and plastic (-16.5%).  Among the five segments with expansion stood out other transportation equipment (73.0%) and pharmaceutical industry (17.0%) supported by the major production of airplanes and medicines.

The diffusion index also recorded the increase of the negative scenario: 64% of the 755 surveyed products recorded decrease in the production, a record level since January 2003, month of the beginning of the series of this index.

In the analysis by categories of use, also in the comparison November 08/ November 07, only capital goods had expansion (3.6%), while durable consumer goods (-22.1%), intermediate goods (-7.5%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-2.8%) recorded negative rates.  It is mainly in durable consumer goods that may be observed the effects of the collective vacations and of non-programmed shutdowns already recorded in October.

The segment of capital goods was positively influenced by the performance of capital goods for transportation (39.1%) and agriculture (13.6%), while machines and equipment for industrial use (-10.9%), for construction (-8.0%) and for mixed use (-20.1%) brought significant decreases.  Among the durable consumer goods, all the groups recorded a strong reduction, especially automobiles (-34.2%), followed by household appliances (-12.9%) and mobile telephones (-4.6%).  Sector of major participation in the industrial structure, intermediate goods brought, in November 2008, a record diffusion index: 68% of the 410 surveyed products recorded decrease, mainly those associated  to the activities of other chemical products (-12.6%), basic metallurgy (-8.9%), rubber and plastic (-16.8%) and  automotive vehicles (-15.2%).  The production of semi and non-durable consumer goods decreased by 2.8%, influenced, mainly, by the segments of semi-durable (-16.0%) and food products and elaborated beverages for domestic consumption (-2.8%).  The growth of fuels (4.5%) and of other non-durable (0.3%) hindered a more negative overall result.

The indicator of industrial production accumulated from January to November (4.7%) lost, in two months 1.7 percentage points. The leadership, in terms of impact, continued with automotive vehicles (12.6%), followed by other transportation equipment (37.9%) and machines and equipment (8.5%). On the other hand, the decreases which mostly pressured the overall index came from office machines and computer equipment (-7.0%), wood (-9.8%) and footwear and leather articles (-6.2%).

According to the categories of use, also in the index accumulated, capital goods had the major expansion (17.0%), confirming the cycle of investments during the year of 2008.  The sector of durable consumer goods (7.3%) also recorded growth above the average (4.7%), supported mainly in the strong expansion of the domestic demand for automobiles observed until September, while the performances of intermediate goods (3.3%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.7%) brought results below the average.