Since the 1960’s the growing rate of the Brazilian population has been recording constant decreases, which have accelerated with the significant decrease of fertility ¹  .   The growing rate of the population decreased from 3.04% per year in the period 1950-1960, to 1.05% in 2008.  In 2050, the growing rate will decrease to -0.291%, which will represent a population of 215.3 million inhabitants.  According to projections, the population will increase until 2039, when it is expected that the population shall reach “growth zero”.  From this year on, negative growing rates will be recorded, and the total population will decrease.  It is worth observing that if the rhythm of population growth continued in the same level observed in the 1950’s  (approximately 3% per year), the Brazilian population would have reached, in 2008, 295 million persons and not 189.6 million persons as reported by IBGE. 

This information may be found in the study “A demographic approach to estimate the historical pattern and the levels of sub-enumeration of persons in the demographic censuses and population counts”, which brings also the population projection of Brazil, by sex and age for the period 1980 – 2050.  The Review 2008 includes the review of the trend of recent and future fertility, based on information of the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) from 2002 to 2006, with a limit level which stabilizes in 1.5 child per woman (recommended hypothesis).  IBGE releases also the methodology of the annual and monthly estimates of the population of Brazil and Federative Units from 1980 to 2030 and the methodology of the estimates of the municipal population.

Total fertility rate decreases, but in the age group from 15 to 19 years old it increases

The birth rates ²  began the trend of decrease in the mid-sixties, with the introduction and diffusion of oral anti-conceptive methods in Brazil.  As a consequence, in the decade 1960 – 1970, a slight diminishment of the population growing rate (2.89%) was recorded. This phenomenon was verified also in the following ten years, when a growing rate of 2.48% was recorded. 

The fertility rate in Brazil diminished during the years, basically as a consequence of transformations which occurred in the Brazilian society, in a general way, and especially in the family.  As a consequence, the fertility rate, in 1991, summed 2.89 children per woman and, in 2000, 2.39 children per woman.  The PNADs 2006 and 2007 already brought estimates which recorded a fertility rate in Brazil below the level of Generation replacement (1.99 and 1.95 children per woman, respectively). By using this group of estimates in order to project the current fertility level, the rate estimated and correspondent to the year 2008 is 1.86 children per woman.

Based on the group of fertility estimates in Brazil, it was possible to establish the probable future trend of this demographic variable.  With the needed adjustments typical of a modeling process, the limit Brazilian fertility rate would be 1.50 children per woman, a number which will be reached between 2027 and 2028.  The fertility by age, by hypothesis, shall continue to maintain a young behavior, with maximum rates recorded by the women age group from 20 to 24 years old.

                 
The fertility rate of young women recorded increments until 2005.  In 1980, of each 100 women from 15 to 19 years old, 7.42 had given birth to at least 1 child (7.42%), and in 2005 this percentage was 9.15%.  Since 2005, the rate shows slight decreases and shall reach 7.21% in 2050.  However, the relative participation of women from 15 to 19 years old in the total fertility increases until 2020.  In 2000, among the total fertility experienced in the fertile period, 18.81% corresponded to women from 15 to 19 years old.  In 2020, this percentage reaches 24.01%, continuing in this level until 2050, due to the low fertility levels.

In 2050, Brazil will have 7 million more women than men

As a consequence of the male over-mortality, the sex ratio ³  is constantly falling in Brazil.  In 1980, for each 100 women, there were 98.7 men.  In 2000, 97 men for each 100 women and, in 2050, it is expected that the sex ratio will be around 94%.  Increases of the female in relation to the male population are being recorded, while in 2000 this number was of 2.5 million women, in 2050 it may reach almost 7 million.

The growing rates of children from 0 to 14 years old are diminishing in absolute value since the period 1990 - 2000.  On the other hand, the rates of the population 65 years old or more, although  oscillating, are the highest ones, and may be higher than 4% per year between 2025 and 2030.  In 2008, while children from 0 to 14 years old corresponded to 26.47% of the total population, the group with 65 years old or more represented 6.53%.  In 2050, this situation will change and the first group will account for 13.15%, while the elder population will account for more than 22.71% of the total population.

Also as a consequence of aging of the Brazilian population, the total dependence ratio, which compares the participation of the population in potentially inactive ages with the population in potentially active ages, will diminish until approximately 2022, as a consequence of the reduction of the dependence ratio of children.  In this year, the dependence ratio restarts a trend of hike due to the increase of absolute and relative participation of elders in the total population.  This way, the median age ⁴ of the population doubles between 1980 and 2035, changing from 20.20 years to 39.90 years, respectively, and may reach 46.20 years, in 2050.

Country is reaching quickly an older demographic profile

The aging index shows changes in the age structure of the Brazilian population.  In 2008, for each group of 100 children from 0 to 14 years old there were 24.7 elders with 65 years old or more.  In 2050, the scenario changes and for each 100 children from 0 to 14 years old there will be 172.7 elders.

An analysis of the projected aging structure shows also the transformation in the relation among persons which enter (and remain) in active ages and those which reach the potentially inactive ages. In 2000, for each person (1) with 65 years old or more, approximately 12 were in the age group known as potentially active (15 to 64 years old).  In 2050, for each person (1) with 65 years old or more, slightly less than 3 will be in the age group potentially active.  Regarding children and youth, there will be more and more persons in potentially active age to fulfill their needs.

Population reaches a demographic bonus which favors economic growth

The results presented allow to verify that, in this moment, Brazil has a demographic window, where the number of persons with potentially active age are in a process of growth, and the total dependence ratio of the population is declining as a consequence of the diminishment of the age group of children from 0 to 14 years old in comparison with the population from 15 to 64 years old. 

Besides this, the population with entering age in the labor market (15 to 24 years old) sums 34 million persons, a number which will probably diminish in the next years.  The good use of this opportunity (demographic window) may provide dynamism and economic growth, if these persons are prepared in educational terms and professional qualification for a more and more competitive labor market, not only in national level, but also in a global scale.

Average life of Brazilians will be 81 years in 2050

The advances of medicine and the improvements in the general life conditions of the population are increasing the average life of Brazilians (expectation of life at birth) from 45.5 years, in 1940, to 72.7 years, in 2008, which means, more 27.2 years of life.  According to the projections of IBGE, the country will continue to record increases in this number, reaching in 2050 the level of 81.29 years, basically the same current level of Iceland (81.80), Hong Kong, China (82.20) and Japan (82.60).

In 2008, the average life for women reached 76.6 years and men, 69.0 years, a difference of 7.6 years.  In a world scale, the expectation of life at birth was estimated, for 2008 (period 2005-2010), in 67.2 years and, for 2045-2050, the United Nations projects an average life of 75.40 years.

Infant mortality rate falls to 23.3%o, but continues high

The increase of female schooling, the increase in the percentage of households with adequate basic sanitation (sewage disposal, drinking water and refuse disposal), and the access and use of health services contributed for the decrease of infant mortality in all the country.  However, there is a long way ahead, since infant mortality in Brazil, estimated in 23.30 under one-year-old deaths per one thousand live births, in 2008, is high, when compared to the indexes of the neighboring countries of the South Cone for the period 2005 - 2010.  In the same period, countries such as Argentina (13.40 per thousand), Chile (7.20 per thousand) and Uruguay (13.10 per thousand) recorded considerably lower rates. It is worth mentioning that, in 1970, the infant mortality rate in Brazil was close to 100 deaths of under one-year-old per one thousand live births. 

According to the parameters used in the projection of the population of Brazil – Review 2008, the country may reduce its infant mortality to 18.2 until 2015, and the expectation of life at birth must reach 74.8 years.  The probability of a new-born baby to die before completing 5 years old may decline 32.9%, reaching 21.6%o by 2015. 

In relation to the Millennium Goals ⁵ , which constitute a responsibility of the Federal, State and Municipal Governments and the private sector, the projections calculate indexes in higher levels than the initially expected ones.  Among the eight general objectives, number four is about the assumed commitment by the signers of the Declaration in reducing by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the mortality rate of under 5 years old children.  The infant mortality rate of the Country, in 1990, was 46.9 deaths of under one-year-old per one thousand live births and a reduction of two-thirds means to reach, in 2015, the level of 15.6 deaths per thousand.   The mortality rate of children under 5 years old was in the beginning of the nineties 59.6 deaths per thousand, and must decrease in the next ten years until it reaches 19.9 deaths per thousand.  However, it is probable that the country will reach the objectives included in the Millennium Development Goals, and the Demographic Census 2010 may, with its results, provide important elements for a better evaluation of this possibility.  It is worth observing that this indicator records a result of the national average and, a positive, necessary and desirable scenario is the one in which all the socio-regional inequalities will no longer exist in Brazil.  Anyway, it is worth recording that the values of the respective rates, implicit in the current projection of mortality for 2015: 18.2%o (under 1 year old) and 21.6%o (under 5 years old) are very close, but however higher than the expected goals.

Youth premature deaths by violence reflects in life expectation

Brazil recorded during some time decline in the mortality rates in all ages, but, since the mid-eighties, deaths associated to external causes (accidents of any nature and violence) began to have an unfortunate important role on the structure by ages of the mortality rates, particularly of young adults of the male sex.  The expectation of life in Brazil continued increasing, but could, in present times, be higher in 2 or 3 years in relation to the estimated one, if it was not for the effect of premature youth deaths due to violence.  It is sufficient to observe that, in 2000, the incidence of male mortality in the age group from 20 to 24 years old was almost 4 times higher than the female one and this indicator is increasing, along the years.

From 2008 to 2050, Brazil changes from the 5th to the 8th position in the ranking of most populated countries

In 2008, Brazil was in the 5th position among the most populated countries, but according to projections of the United Nations, the country must reach the eighth position in 2050. See in the table below the ranking of the 25 most populated countries (World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision).
Note: The 2008 Revision, elaborated by the United Nations Population Division shall be released in 2009. In this sense, the results about the position of Brazil compared to other countries or areas must be analyzed as preliminary results.

NOTES

 1 -Total fertility rate – The total fertility rate expresses the number of children that on the average, a woman would have, belonging to an hypothetic cohort of women, who during their fertile life had their children according to the fertility rates by age of the period studied and were not exposed to the risks of mortality, since their birth until the end of their fertile period.

2  - Crude birth rate – Represents the frequency in which births occur in a determined population.  It is the quotient among the live births which occurred in a determined year and the population in the middle of the year multiplied by 1000.

3 - Sex ratio – expresses the number of males for each group of 100 females.  It is obtained through the quotient between the male and female populations by groups of age.

4 - The median age is the one that separates the age distributions in two segments of 50% each one.

5 - The adoption of the Millennium Declaration in 2000 by all the 189 State members of the General Assembly of the United Nations was a decisive moment of global cooperation in the XXI century.  The  Declaration establishes, in the ambit of only one structure, the central challenges faced by humanity in the threshold of the new millennium, outlines answers to these challenges and establishes concrete measures in order to measure the performance through a series of commitments, objectives and goals inter-related about development, governability, peace, security, and human rights. (in www.pnud.org.br/odm/papel_pnud/ ).