Hike compensated the decrease of August (-1.2%), in the series with seasonal adjustment.  The sector of machines and equipment (9.0%) brought the major contribution for the overall average.  There was growth of 9.8% in relation to September 2007.  In the year, industry accumulated hike of 6.5%, and the index accumulated in the last twelve months in September (6.8%) was higher than the value of August (6.4%).

In September 2008, the industrial production increased by 1.7% compared to August, in the series seasonally adjusted, more than compensating the decrease of 1.2% observed in the previous month.  In relation to September of the previous year, the sector increased by 9.8%, highest result since April (10.0%).  As a consequence, the index accumulated from January to September was 6.5%, higher than the index accumulated until August (6.0%).  The index accumulated in the last twelve months (6.8%) also accelerated compared to the result of August (6.4%).  In the end of the third quarter of 2008, increase was recorded, compared to the same period of 2007 (6.7%), as well as in relation to the immediately previous quarter (2.7%), in the series with seasonal adjustment.

The increase which occurred from August to September (1.7%) was generalized, reaching twenty among twenty-seven segments surveyed, and the major contribution on the overall average came from machines and equipment (9.0%), after a slowdown registered in the previous month (-0.2%). Also were relevant the performances of edition and printing (8.4%), petroleum refining and alcohol production (3.3%), food products (1.5%) and office machines and computer equipment (9.5%). The main negative results came from other chemical products (-2.3%) and basic metallurgy (-17%).

By categories of use, also in the series seasonally adjusted, the major hike came from capital goods (3.7%), which changed the decrease (-0.5%) of the previous month.  In the other categories of use, the results were: semi and non-durable consumer goods (1.5%), which increased again after a decrease (-0.3%) in August; durable consumer goods (0.4%); and intermediate goods (-0.1%) which almost repeated the level of the previous month. 

Moving average confirmed trend of hike
In September, the quarterly moving average index confirmed the trend of expansion of industry, which began in January, with increase of 0.6% from the quarter closed in August to the one closed in September.

Among the categories of use, the quarterly moving average also increased, standing out capital goods (1.6%), with hike for the fourth consecutive month, accumulating 7.6% in this period.  The sector of semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.4%) recorded hike for the fifth consecutive month, accumulating expansion of 3.3% in this period.  The segments of durable consumer goods (-1.0%) and intermediate goods (-0.3%) broke three consecutive months of growth.

In relation to September 2007, there were hikes in 25 among 27 activities

In the comparison with September 2007, the increase of 9.8% of industry was generalized, reaching twenty-five among twenty-seven activities and all the categories of use.  It is worth mentioning that September of this year had three more working days than September of 2007.  The hikes which most influenced were: automotive vehicles (20.1%); machines and equipment (21.4%); pharmaceuticals (29.6%); and other transportation equipment (44.4%).

In these segments, the main influences came not only from items typically associated to durable consumer goods (such as automobiles, motorcycles and household appliances), but also from some related to capital goods (harvesting machines, airplanes and trucks).  The extent of growth was also confirmed by the diffusion index: among the 755 products surveyed, 65% had increase in the volume of production, compared to 48% in August. 

Also in relation to September 2007, capital goods (25.8%) and durable consumer goods (14.9%) maintained a rhythm considerably above the overall average of industry (9.8%).  In the first segment, increased the rhythm of growth in all the sub-sectors, especially transportation equipment (41.9%), followed by capital goods for mixed use (10.5%), capital goods for industrial use (16.9%) and capital goods for electricity (25.5%).  In the sector of durable consumer goods, which has a considerable inter-industrial linkage, it is worth mentioning besides the increase of the automobile industry (15.7%), the major production of household appliances (13.1%), which showed the positive performance of its three sub-sectors: “brown line” (TV, radio and stereo) (13.4%), “white line” (refrigerators, freezers, washing machines) (11.2%) and other household appliances (23.9%).

The production of intermediate goods increased by 6.6% compared to September 2007, with the main positive results coming from products associated to mining and quarrying industries (9.7%), non-metallic minerals (17.5%), cellulose and paper (15.1%), basic metallurgy (7.6%) and automotive vehicles (13.1%).  The major negative influence came from food products (-6.7%), as a consequence mainly of the decrease in the item crystallized sugar.  In the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods (7.0%) stood out the two-digit increases in other non-durable products (11.2%), which had not registered an increase of this magnitude since October 2006 (11.6%).  It is also worth mentioning the result of food products and elaborated beverages for domestic use (4.8%), influenced by the major production of poultry pluck, giblets and meats; and cookies and crackers.

In relation to the same period of the previous year, Industry grew for 20 consecutive quarters

In the analysis by quarters, industry presented positive results for 20 consecutive quarters, in relation to the same period of the previous year.  In the third quarter of 2008, the increase of 6.7% maintained a rhythm similar to the previous quarters: 6.4% in the first and 6.2% in the second quarter.  Among the categories of use, capital goods (from 17.3% in the first quarter to 20.0% in the third quarter) accelerated during the year and continued growing with two-digit rates. Semi and non-durable consumer goods (from 1.3% to 3.5%) also gained rhythm, but remained with a performance below the industrial average.  Durable consumer goods (from 13.7% to 9.0%) and intermediate goods (from 6.1% to 5.3%) decelerated between the first and third quarters.

The long cycle of expansion also may be observed in the performance of the indexes which compare quarter with immediately previous quarter, in the series seasonally adjusted, which increased for the twelfth consecutive quarter.  The rate of 2.7% in this quarter was the major since the third quarter of 2004 (2.9%). In the categories of use, comparing the second and the third quarter of 2008, the segment of capital goods increased (from 2.4% to 6.2%), maintaining the leadership for the second consecutive quarter, while in the same period durable consumer goods (from 1.1% to 0.6%) had the only deceleration among the two periods.  The sectors of intermediate goods and semi and non-durable consumer goods, both with growth of 1.8% in the third quarter registered higher results than in the previous quarter (respectively 0.1% and 1.0).

The index accumulated January-September reached 6.5%, supported in the growth of twenty-two activities, with automotive vehicles (17.6%) leading the global expansion, supported by the major production of automobiles and trucks, followed by machines and equipment (10.6%), standing out the major production of equipment elevators/ merchandise transporters and harvesting machines.  Also with a relevant contribution in the overall rate, stood out other transportation equipment (31.5%), influenced by the high production of airplanes and motorcycles.  On the other hand, wood (-8.9%), influenced by the items plywood and sawed wood, and tobacco (-8.0%) registered the major negative results.  The indexes by categories of use confirmed the major performance of the producing sectors of capital goods (18.9%) and durable consumer goods (12.1%), a pattern observed in the industrial dynamic since 2006. Below the rhythm of the general industry (6.5%) were the categories of intermediate goods (5.2%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (2.3%).

 In summary, the index of September increased in relation to August 2008 (1.7%), maintaining an upward trend, observed since the beginning of the year by the quarterly moving average index.  Also in the series seasonally adjusted, it could be observed acceleration from the second to the third quarter of 2008 (2.7%).  This quarterly rate was the highest since the period July-September of 2004 (2.9%).  In the comparison with September 2007, the growth of 9.8% reached the majority of the industrial segments, influenced, in part, by the calendar.  Based on the series of the indexes with seasonal adjustment, the increase compared to September 2007 was also significant (7.3%), supported by the performance of the sector capital goods, which presented investments in the productive capacity, and by the dynamism of the domestic demand, in accordance with the most recent statistics of retail trade and the evolution of employment and income.