In September, the estimated national harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds is about 145.3 million metric tons...

In September, the estimated national harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds is about 145.3 million metric tons, 9.1% more than in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). This volume is 151,930 metric tons higher than the figure estimated in August. This increase (0.1%) resulted from the reevaluation of data about winter crops, especially wheat. The estimated area to be harvested has increased by 4.2%, compared to the area harvested in 2007, which was 47.3 million hectares. Among the crops surveyed, which occupied the biggest areas in 2008, the highlights were soybeans (with 21.3 million hectares), corn (14.4 million hectares) and rice (2.9 million hectares). These three products represent, together, 89.9% of the estimated national grain production.

In absolute figures, by area, the production estimate of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is distributed as follows: South Region (60.9 million metric tons), Central West (50.4 million metric tons), Southeast (17.6 million metric tons), Northeast (12.5 million metric tons) and North (3.8 million metric tons).

Agricultural Production in 2008 – September estimates compared to the 2007 harvest

Among the 25 products analyzed, 18 had positive change in the production estimate compared to the previous year: 1st harvest peanuts (38.8%), rice in husk (9.2%), oats in grain (14.4%), 1st harvest potatoes (0.3%), 2nd harvest potatoes (24.1%), 3rd harvest potatoes (4.8%), cacao nuts (3.2%), coffee in grain (28.3%), sugarcane (13.7%), 2nd harvest beans in grain (37.2%), 3rd harvest beans in grain (4.6%), oranges (0.4%), castor beans in segment (40.5%), 1st harvest corn in grain (10.6%), 2nd harvest corn in grain (18.4%), soybeans in grain (3.4%), sorghum in grain (38.2%) and wheat in grain (37.5%).  Negative changes were observed in the following items: herbaceous seed cotton (-2.2%), 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (-5.9%), onions (-1.5%), barley in grain (-2.8%),1st harvest peanuts in grain (-8.7%), cassava (-1.2%) and triticale in grain (-10.0%).

With the reevaluation of estimates, the production of sugarcane reached 623,102,780 metric tons, which represents increase of 13.7% in relation to 2007. The increase of area by 12.1%, as a result of the new projects which are being implemented in the country to fulfill the demand for alcohol, was the main responsible for the production increase. However, productivity has also increased lately, with the introduction of new varieties of products and new technologies. The estimate for São Paulo, responsible for 58.9% of the Brazilian production (367.2 million metric tons) points to increase of 12.1% in production compared to results in 2007.

Also in relation to the 2007 harvest, Minas Gerais was the highlight in terms of coffee; it was the main national producer, with 44.6% of increase in production. The figures of Espírito Santo show the consequences of the dry period of 2007, which resulted in production decrease of 1.4% of the total amount produced in the state. The other big states in terms of coffee production kept the production increase: São Paulo (59.6%), Rondônia (27.0%), Bahia (10.5%) and Paraná (53.9%).  Considering the area harvested or to be harvested, the changes in relation to 2007 were: Minas Gerais (+1.9%), Espírito Santo (-2.1%), Bahia (+3.2%), São Paulo (+1.1%), Rondônia (-1.3%) and Paraná (-0;5%).  The total production in the country is expected to increase 27.7% and the area harvested or to be harvested is expected to reach the end of the period with increase of 0.5%.

2008 Agricultural Production – September and August estimates compared

Compared to figures in August, in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of September, the highlights are changes in the production estimates of the following items: sugarcane (5.4%), wheat in grain (3.9%), oats in grain (2.0%), 3rd harvest beans (1.9%), coffee in grain (0.2%) and soybeans in grain (-0.1%).

OATS in grain – The increment of 2.0% in oat production probably resulted from the increase of 1.5% in average income, and from the increment of 0.5% observed in the area to be harvested. This result was influenced by the performance of Paraná, which had readjustments of 2.5% and 3.1% in area and yield, respectively. The figure below shows the Federative Units which have participated as oat producers and the percent production change compared to the previous estimate.

 COFFEE in grain – As the end of the harvesting period approaches, the September estimate for the national harvest of 2008 amounts to 46.4 million 60-kg sacks (2,786,801 t), 0.2% more than in August. It is important to mention, once more, the production of Minas Gerais, which grew 0.3% in relation to that of the previous month, increasing the production of the state by 70,950 sacks (4,257 t). In Espírito Santo, there was no change in the estimate from August to September. Only in three important producing states, Rondônia, Minas Gerais e Paraná were there changes in comparison with results in the previous month. These differences can be seen in the graph below:

SUGARCANE – For the current month, the estimate is for a national production of 623.1 million metric tons, 5.4% above the August estimate, with increase of 3.8% in the area to be harvested. This positive change in the production estimate, as shown in the picture below, is mainly due to the new data from São Paulo, the main national producer, besides changes in Alagoas and Mato Grosso.

3rd-HARVEST BEANS – Compared to the previous month, the production estimate of 3rd-harvest beans had increase of 1.9%, as a result of reevaluations of the area to be harvested in Minas Gerais, Goiás and Mato Grosso. The picture below shows the main 3rd- harvest beans producers and the changes occurred in relation to August.

 SOYBEANS in grain – The record production of amount of soybeans in this estimate was 59.9 million tons, with decrease of 0.1% in relation to last month, as a consequence of readjustments occurred with the end of the harvest in Mato Grosso. The figure below presents the production ranking of the main Federative Units participating in the survey, as well as changes in comparison with the previous month.  

WHEAT – In the September survey, the estimate is for a total 5.6 million metric tons, with average yield of 2,830 kg/ha. Compared to the previous month, the annual production increased 3.9% due to the reevaluation of the average yield of crops, with increase of 4.8%. All the states of the South Region, which accounted for 92.6% of the national production of wheat, led to positive reevaluations. The occurrence of rain, frosts and hailstorms did not affect crops significantly. The picture below shows the main soybeans producers and percent production changes occurred in relation to the August estimate .