The forecast of harvest (145.1 million metric tons) for 2008 is 9.0% higher than in 2007 and stable in relation to July, maintaining in this way the expectation of a record output. The area to be harvested (47.4 million hectares) is 4.4% higher than in the previous year....

 

 

The forecast of harvest (145.1 million metric tons) for 2008 is 9.0% higher than in 2007 and stable in relation to July, maintaining in this way the expectation of a record output.  The area to be harvested (47.4 million hectares) is 4.4% higher than in the previous year.

 

The eighth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds shows a production of 145.1 million metric tons ¹  , 9.0% higher than the one obtained in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons).  This volume was only 4,410 metric tons bigger (almost stable) than the forecast of July. The slow growth was a consequence of the readjustments of the summer crops with the conclusion of the harvest, reevaluations of sorghum and corn 2nd harvest and increments in the estimates of the planting of beans 3rd harvest.  The winter crops registered small decreases.

 

In relation to the area to be harvested (47.4 million hectares), the estimate for 2008 was 4.4% higher than in 2007. The crops surveyed which take up the major areas are soybeans (21.3 million hectares), corn (14.5 million hectares) and rice (2.9 million hectares).  These three products represent 90.0% of the national production of grains estimated for this year.

 

In absolute terms, in the analysis by regions, the estimate of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was distributed as follows:  South Region (60.6 million metric tons); Central West (50.6 million metric tons); Southeast (17.6 million metric tons); Northeast (12.5 million metric tons) and North (3.8 million metric tons). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 Agricultural Production – estimate of August in relation to the 2007 harvest

 

 

Among the 25 products analyzed, 19 had a positive change in the estimate of production in relation to the previous year: peanuts in husk 1st harvest (38.8%), peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (0.9%), rice in husk (9.2%), oats in grain (12.2%), potatoes 1st harvest (0.3%), potatoes 2nd harvest (21.8%), potatoes 3rd harvest (4.0%), almond cocoa (3.2%), coffee in grain (28.0%), sugar cane (14.7%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (40.6%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (2.7%), orange (0.6%), castor beans (section) (48.7%), corn in grain 1st harvest (10.7%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (18.4%), soybeans in grain (3.5%), sorghum in grain (37.5%) and wheat in grain (32.4%).  With negative change: upland cotton (seed) (-2.9%), onions (-2.1%), barley in grain (-2.3%), beans in grain 1st harvest (-8.6%), cassava (-0.9%) and triticale in grain (-9.8%).  In absolute terms stood out the corn crops (1st and 2nd harvests), soybeans, wheat, rice and sugar cane.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Production of sugar cane in 2008 will be 14.7% higher than in 2007

 

 

The estimate for the Brazilian production of sugar cane, in 2008, was 591,431,766 metric tons, 14.7% higher than in 2007.   The expansion of the area to be harvested in 13.8%, as a consequence of new projects which are being established in the country in order to answer the demand for alcohol, is the main responsible for the production growth.  This way, the 2008 harvest, as the previous one, shall have a sugar cane expansion, due to the bigger demand for alcohol in the domestic market.  This hike comes from the significant growth of the national bi-fuel vehicles which represent 85% of the new vehicles.  Despite the growth of exports in the last years, the foreign market is considerably closed, due to protectionist barriers from some countries, such as the United States, main market of the Brazilian alcohol.

 

 

São Paulo is responsible for 57.0% of the Brazilian production (337.1 million metric tons), a growth of 14.1% in relation to 2007.  However, the Central West Region is the one that most increases, with the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Mato Grosso, bringing increases of 39.5%, 29.9%, and 9.2%, respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Production of coffee in 2008 will be 28% greater than in 2007

 

The estimate of the Brazilian production of coffee, in 2008, is 2,779,986 metric tons, 28% higher than in 2007.  In relation to the previous year stood out Minas Gerais, 1st national producer, with increase of 44.2%.  Espírito Santo, 2nd major producer, is reevaluating now the consequences of the drought of 2007, presenting decrease of 1.4% in the total value of coffee produced in the State.  This decrease came from Conillon coffee, which represents approximately 70% of the local production and is planted in the north of the State.  Damages were caused by the lack of rain, despite the usual use of irrigation.  Regarding the Arabic coffee, however, there were no damages, in fact, there was a slight increase, softening the effects of the decrease in the production of the state, when compared to 2007.  The other great producing coffee states continued confirming increase in the production, such as São Paulo (59.6%), Rondônia (24.2%), Bahia (10.5%) and Paraná (53.2%).  In relation to the area harvested or to be harvested, the changes in relation to 2007 were: Minas Gerais (+1.9%), Espírito Santo (-2.1%), São Paulo (+1.1%), Rondônia (-1.3%), Bahia (+3.2%) and Paraná (-0.5%).   In Brazil, the average yield shall increase by 27.4%, which shows the results of the on-year of the biennial cycle, and the area harvested or to be harvested must reach in the end of the harvest, 0.5%, as shows the following graph.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 Agricultural Production – estimate of August in relation to July

 

 

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of August stood out the changes in the estimates of production, comparatively to July, of the following products: coffee in grain (0.3%), sugar cane (0.3%), total beans in grain (-1.0%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (1.0%), sorghum in grain (4.6%), wheat in grain (-0.1%), triticale in grain (-7.2%) and the absolute change of soybeans in grain of - 27,030  metric tons.

 

 

COFFEE IN GRAIN –  The evaluation conducted in August for the national harvest of coffee, with 80% of the production harvested, totals 46.3 million bags of 60 kg (2,779,986 t), 0.3% major than the one obtained in July.  Stood out the production of Minas Gerais, which increased by 1.4% in relation to July, increasing the production of the state in 19,631 metric tons (327.2 thousand bags).  In Espírito Santo, on the other hand, the estimate in relation to July is that at least 13,352 metric tons (222.5 thousand bags are produced).  In the main producing centers, as can be observed in the graph below, some changes were recorded compared to the survey of the previous month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

BEANS in grain – In August, the national production of beans, considering the three harvests of the product, is estimated in 3,503,750 metric tons and are distributed as follows: 1,622,962 metric tons of the 1st harvest (46.3%), 1,475,053 metric tons of the 2nd harvest (42.1%) and 405,735 metric tons of the 3rd harvest (11.6%).  Comparatively to the result of July, the changes of production were respectively -0.9%; -2.6% and 4.6%.   The reduction registered in the production of beans 1st harvest in this survey of August, occurred because of reevaluations of final data of harvests especially in the states of Pernambuco (-4.2%), Piauí (-15.1%) and Rio de Janeiro (-3.7%).  In the second harvest of the product, the decrease observed in the production in relation to July, occurred mainly in the states of Pará (-5.0%), Paraíba (-21.1%), Bahia (-4.9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-4.0%). Besides the reevaluations in the major part of the producing states of the Northeast Region stood out the decreases which occurred in Paraíba due to the heavy rainfall.  Beans 3rd harvest, which brought the major percentage change, 4.6%, is already planted and the new surveys conducted in Goiás, show an increase of 21.1% in the production, as a consequence of the increments of 14.7% in the planted area and of 5.5% in the average yield.

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN in grain 2nd harvest – For the second period of the planting of corn, the increment in the production evaluated in 1.0% is a consequence, especially, of the gains of 8.9% in the area planted and of 15.6% in the average yield of Goiás.  It is worth mentioning that the increase in the production could be major if it was not for the decrease registered in Mato Grosso do Sul.  In this state, as a consequence of damages caused by frosts which occurred in June 16 and 17, there was an adjustment in the average yield expected, which changed from 3,400 kg/hectares to the present 3,250 kg/hectares, representing a diminishment of 3.8% in the estimate of production.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SOYBEANS IN GRAIN – A record production of 60.0 million metric tons is estimated, distributed in 21.3 million hectares, with an average yield of 2,815 kg/hectare.  Almost 90% of the national production of this oilseed is concentrated in 7 states:  Mato Grosso (29.8%), Paraná (19.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.0%), Goiás (10.9%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.6%), Bahia (4.6%) and Minas Gerais (4.2%).  The estimate of this month is almost the same of the previous month.  It is worth mentioning that the state of Pará, although with a small national participation (0.3%), had an increase of 18.3% in the production due to the increase of 23.6% in the area to be harvested.

 

SORGHUM in grain - The production estimated of sorghum is 1,904,622 metric tons, 4.6% higher than the one reported in the previous month.  This increase came mainly from Goiás, major national producer, which participates with 43.4% of the national production.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT in grain - In the survey of August, a production of 5.4 million metric tons is estimated, for an area of 2.4 million hectares and an average yield of 2,272 kg/hectare.  In the states of the South Region, which answer for 92.4% of the national production of wheat, the 2008 harvest, in a general way, continued bringing the expected good results.  In relation to the previous month, the production registered an insignificant change (-0.1%) due to the reduction of 7.1% observed in Mato Grosso do Sul, which participates with only 1.2% in the national production.  It is also worth mentioning, that in Paraná, major national producer, the productivity decreased by 2% due especially to the losses caused by hail, which nevertheless did not affect the production, since the area planted was reevaluated and increased by 2.1%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

TRITICALE in grain – The production of triticale estimated in this month is 164,957 tons, 7.2% lower than the one of July, for an area to be reaped of 68,470 hectares and an average yield of 2,272 kg/hectare.  The decrease observed in this survey was a consequence of changes in the data from Paraná, major producer, with participation of 45.2% in the total expected output for the country.  This state was the only one to register decrease in the production, due to reevaluations in the area to be reaped and in the yield which amounted to -9.9% and -5.3%, respectively.

 

 

Note

¹  Addressing the demand of users regarding the harvest, the surveys for cereals, legumes and oilseeds now presented were conducted in partnership with the National Food Supply Company – Conab, department of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply- MAPA, continuing a process of harmonization of the official estimates of the harvest, initiated in October of 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.