IBGE has released today, August 29, 2008, the estimates for resident population in the 5,565 Brazilian municipalities on July 1, 2008. This estimate is released annually, in accordance with Complementary Law no. 59, of December 22, 1998, as well as with Article 102 of Law no. 8443, of July 16, 1992. Population estimates, which are essential to the calculation of economic and socio-demographic indicators in the periods between censuses, are also useful as a parameter for the distribution, established by the Brazilian Court of Audit, of shares relative to the Participation Fund of States and Municipalities, in accordance with constitutional devices.

According to estimates in 2008, Brazil has, currently, 189.6 million inhabitants in 5,565 municipalities, including the new municipality of Nazária (PI). São Paulo is the most populated municipality, with 10.9 million inhabitants, followed by Rio de Janeiro, with 6.1 million and Salvador, with 2.9 million. Belo Horizonte was in the fourth position in 2000 and fell to sixth place in 2008, being surpassed by the Federal District, which reached a total of 2.5 million inhabitants in 2008. Fortaleza, on the other hand, remained in the fifth position.

Borá (SP) is still the least populated municipality in the country, with an estimtaed population of 834 inhabitants, 39 more than in 2000. From the selected group of 5 Brazilian municipalities with less than one thousand inhabitants, only Borá and Serra da Saudade (with 889 inhabitants) have remained in this position in 2008.

It is worth mentioning that IBGE has improved population estimates for year 2008. The current estimates are shown in a table with the estimated population for each of the 5,565 Brazilian municipalities on July 1, 2008. The figures are also published in Brazil’s Federal Register until August 31, every year. After the release of the estimates, it will be possible for citizens to submit complaints to IBGE, which will come to a proper conclusion concerning them. Only then, on the 31^st of October each year, does IBGE send the estimates to the Brazilian Court of Audit.

Methodology used by IBGE

In order to obtain the latest population results, IBGE has conducted a study using the methodology of census comparability, combined with the Demographic Components Method. It is a demographic tool aimed at obtaining the expected structures by sex and age of populations in censuses, and which uses information about the demographic dynamics of the country in an attempt at coherence among the counts of years 1980, 1991, 1996, 2000 and 2007.

Based on a historical evaluation of demographic censuses and population counts in Brazil from 1980 to 2007, IBGE has found, for each year, estimates of absolute and relative methods of undercount in these five census operations. Undercount is not an exclusive feature of Brazilian census operations: since the beginning of the first half of the 20^th century, the United Nations, through their representatives for Latin American and the Caribbean (CEPAL) have evaluated¹ the coverage of population censuses of the Latin-American and Caribbean area.

Results point to significant coherence concerning the Demographic Cenuses of 1970, 1980, 1991 and 2000,. The reference used was the 1980 Census, whose population coverage was evaluated in order to obtain the final result for undercount and its implications, associated to the correction of the starting population figures or not.

In summary, these demographic procedures are used to evaluate and, if it is the case, correct census data for projections and estimates, both in terms of volume and of composition of the population by sex and age. The method consists in reaching coherence between information from censuses and demographic events – births, deaths and migration – so that the results are as close as possible to what is expected according to the demographic dynamics.

In relation to municipal estimates for 2008, specifically, there have been adjustments of the population of Federative Units observed in years 2000 and 2007 into the values projected for Brazilian population – as defined after the census comparison. The adjustment factors used in the total population figures  for Federative Units, in 2000 and 2007, have been also applied to their municipalities so as to maintain the total figures adjusted for each respective Unit.

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[1] Even with the use of  an analogue methodology, that is, of census comparability and projection of demographic components, the path taken by CEPAL started in 1950, which, to a great extent, can explain the differences fount in the estimated levels of the respective census omissions.