Increases in the expected production of wheat (12.4%) and 2nd harvest corn (15.7%) compared to figures in 2007, led to increase of the grain harvest estimate: the expected production in Brazil is 142.6 million metric tons.

 

Increases in the expected production of wheat (12.4%) and 2^nd harvest corn (15.7%) compared to figures in 2007, led to increase of the grain harvest estimate: the expected production in Brazil is 142.6 million metric tons. This figure is 1.5% higher than in March, and 7.2% above the result obtained in 2007. Also compared to last year, the expected increase of planted area is 3.2%, that is, a total of 46.8 million hectares in 2008.  

 

The fourth estimate for the national harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds¹ points to production of 142.6 million metric tons, that is, 1.5% above the figure expected for March (140.5 million metric tons) and 7.2% above that obtained in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons). In relation to the area planted in 2007 (46.8 million hectares), the current estimate points to increase by 3.2%. Among the products surveyed, soybeans, corn and rice are the ones which take up the biggest areas, with, respectively, 21.2; 14.5 and 2.9 million hectares harvested in 2008. These products represent 90.6% of the estimated national production of grains.

 

 

The picture above shows the evolution of the production of grains and in the planted area from 1980 to 2008. Production increased more significantly than the area planted with those crops, reflecting the technological advances which determined the increase of average yield. Production in 2003 (123.6 million metric tons) surpassed 100 million metric tons of grains, the record reached in 2007 (133.1 million metric tons) and which is expected to be overcome in 2008 (142.6 million metric tons)². The highlights are the increases, compared to the previous year, of rice, corn (in both harvests) and soybeans.

 

 

 

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is distributed as follows: South (61.0 million metric tons); Central West (49.2 million); Southeast (16.7 million); Northeast (12.0 million) and North (3.8 million). The harvest of the main temporary summer crops, such as soybeans and rice, is practically over and the harvest of corn (1^st harvest) will come next. So far, good climactic conditions have contributed to the proper development of 2^nd harvest crops, for example, corn and beans, as well as to the increase of planting of winter crops, such as wheat and triticale.

 

Agricultural Production 2008 – April estimates compared to the 2007 harvest

 

 

 

Among the twenty-five products surveyed, nineteen had positive change in the estimated production compared to the previous year: peanuts – 1^st harvest (27.6%), peanuts – 2^nd harvest (15.7%), rice in husk (8.6%), oats in grain (12.1%), potatoes – 1^st harvest (0.2%), potatoes – 2^nd harvest (5.9%), potatoes – 3^rd harvest (8.0%), cocoa (3.2%), coffee in grain (26.3%), sugarcane (8.2%), barley in grain  (8.5%), beans – 2^nd harvest (33.3%), castor beans in segment (36.1%), corn – 1^st harvest (9.6%), corn – 2^nd harvest (15.7%), soybeans in grain (2.6%), sorghum in grain (21.7%), wheat in grain (12.4%) and triticale in grain (5.9%). With negative changes were: herbaceous cotton seed (-3.7%), onions (-7.6%), beans – 1^st harvest (-5.8%), beans – 3^rd harvest (-0.4%), oranges (-2.9%) and cassava (-0.5%).

 

 

 

In terms of percent changes in the year, the highlights were castor beans, beans – 2^nd harvest, peanuts – 2^nd harvest, coffee (produced every two years) and sorghum. However, in absolute terms, the highlights were the crops of rice, corn and soybeans. Sugarcane, which also presents a big volume of production, had increase of 8.2% in relation to 2007. With the beginning of the harvest, these figures are expected to change in coming surveys.

 

 

 

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA)³ of April, the highlights in comparison with March figures refer to the production estimates of nine products: herbaceous cotton seed (3.3%), rice in husk (0.3%), coffee in grain (3.3%), beans in grain – 1^st harvest (-2.1%), beans in grain 2^nd harvest (8.1%), corn in grain – 1^st harvest (1.9%), corn in grain – 2^nd harvest (4.9%), soybeans in grain (-0.8%) and wheat in grain (20.1%).

 

 

 

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) – Cotton crops take up an area of 1,076,396 ha, with estimated production of 3.9 million metric tons, 3.3% above that of the previous month. Mato Grosso and Bahia had 81.6% of this national production with, respectively, 2.1 million metric tons and 1.2 million metric tons. The production increment probably results from field surveys conducted in the state of Mato Grosso, which identified average incomes of 8.2%, above the March estimate, with changes from 3,571 kg/ha to 3,864 kg/ha, due to satisfactory climactic conditions for development of this crop in the state. In the graph below, for the period 1980 – 2008, the highlights were, respectively, gains of production registered in the current decade, due to increments in the average yield, with more use of technology.

 

RICE in husk – Rice crops encompass an area of 2,920,613 ha, and in this fourth production estimate, the volume calculated is 12.0 million metric tons, pointing to increase of 0.3% in relation to the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul has 60.2% of the national production of this cereal, and accounted for this positive change due to the increment of 1.1% to average yield of the state, estimated to be 6,800 kg/ha.

 

The excess of rain caused floods in the Northeast region, especially in Piauí, Pernambuco and Paraíba, and production decreased by 2.6%, but there were no damages at national level. The figure above shows the area, average yield and production from 1990 to 2008. Average yield reflects a tendency to a more frequent use of technological inputs improve production, once figures have been stable in the area.

 

COFFEE in grain – For coffee, climatic drawbacks occurred mainly in the second semester of 2007, did not affect yield for 2008. On the contrary, as a confirmation of the high season of two-year crops, coffee was a good surprise in all the producing areas. Rainfall in July and August 2007 was counterbalanced by the dry period which occurred in September and in October, when there are usually good estimates for the year’s harvest. At first, these problems made it difficult to obtain harvest estimates, unless it was possible to evaluate, definitely, the survival of fruits which would managed to reach the graining phase, in the beginning of this year.

 

 

In April, with grain development at an advanced stage, the expected national production is 2,742,086 metric tons (45.7 million sacks/60 kg of coffee in grain, surpassing by 3.3% the previous estimate, with average yield of 1,225 kg/ha (20.4 sacks/ha). These figures may be reviewed in the following months. Prospects, both for the internal and the external market, remain favorable, given the low level of stocks. The figure above represents evolution of area, average yield and production in the period 2001 – 2008, in which the phenomenon of the two-year production of coffee is evident.

 

BEANS in grain – 1^st harvest – The first harvest of beans represents 47.8% of the national production of 2008, with expected figure of 1.7 million metric tons in this fourth estimate, that is, 2.1% less than the March estimate. All the Major Areas faced decrease in this April estimate, being the highlight, Northeast Region, 5.6% below March results. Ceará, which is the second main producer of beans in this period, contributed with 15.9% to the national production and faced decrease of 5.9% the production estimate.. It was only second to the state of Paraná (24.7%). There were similar situations in the states of Bahia (-8.1%) and Piauí (-20.2%). These decreases were a consequence of harsh climactic conditions caused by the excess of rain and which caused floods in bean producing areas.  

 

Area reduction by 56.7% expected for the state of Mato Grosso is a projection which has not been confirmed in this field evaluation. The picture below shows the time series for production, area and yield in the period 1990-2008, in which can be observed a tendency to reduction of the area directed to this crop in this period, without, however, meaning significant reduction of production.

 

BEANS in grain – 2^nd harvest – In case of beans – 2^nd harvest, which represents 40.9% of the national production, the amount expected, 1.4 million metric tons, is 8.1% above the previous estimate. This increase is observed in the Southeast, Northeast and Central West Regions: 9.2%, 11.5% and 47.9%, respectively, due, mainly, to the increase of planted area, determined by the good prices in the period. Paraná is also the main producer, contributing with 25.0% to this harvest. The following picture shows the change over time from 1990 to 2008 of the variables of area, average yield and production of bean crops in this second planting period, reflecting a tendency to stabilization, which only changed due to the price of this product.

 

 

 

CORN in grain -1^st harvest – For corn – 1st harvest, the production of 39.6 million tons is above the 1.9% than the figure estimated for March, representing 68.5% of the total amount of corn estimated for 2008.  The states of Paraná, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are the biggest corn producers in this period, with contributions of 23.9%; 16.0%; 13.9% and 10.7%, respectively. The increase in this April result occurred due to adjustments distributed among all the producing major Regions. In Paraná, there was increment of 2.7% of in production, which is now estimated to be 9.470.893 metric tons, as a consequence of the increase of average yield by 2.6% (it changed from 6.724 kg/ha to 6.898 kg/ha). In this state, harvesting has already surpassed 87%. The figure below shows the time series for this crop from 1990 to 2008, revealing stability of planted area and change of production and yield (more related to changes in climactic conditions). It can be seen that a new record production of corn – 1^st harvest may be reached in 2008.

 

CORN in grain – 2nd harvest – Corn – 2nd harvest will represent 31.5% of the total corn production for 2008, estimated to be 18.2 million tons and 4.9% above the figure in March. This increment is mainly due to new data from the Southeast, south and Central West Region, where estimates for area and average yield cause agricultural producers to allow planting until the maximum limit prescribed in the agricultural calendar, considering crops at different stages of development. The main producing states in this period are Paraná, with 35.7% of the production, Mato Grosso (35.6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (16.1%) and Goiás (5.5%). The figure below shows the tendency to increase of the area directed to this culture, and also of production and average yield, but presenting oscillations due to harsh climactic conditions. A new record for corn – 2^nd harvest is expected for 2008.

 

 

 

SOYBEANS in grain – For soybeans, the estimated production is 59.5 million metric tons, distributed among 21.2 million hectares, with average yield of 2,805 kg/ha. The main contributions come from the states of Mato Grosso (29.8%), Paraná (19.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.1%), Goiás (11.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.8%), Minas Gerais (4.2%) and Bahia (4.1%) which, together, account for 90% of the national production of this oilseed.

 

There was decrease by 0.8% in the estimated production in April, compared to the previous month, due to adjustments of average yield, especially in the South and Central West Regions, with Santa Catarina (-3.0%), Rio Grande do Sul (-3.8) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-6.5%) as the main highlights. The figure above shows that a new population record is expected for 2008.

 

WHEAT in grain – In April, the estimated production of wheat was 4.6 million metric tons, occupying and area of 1,999,224 ha and with average yield of 2,298 kg/ha. Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul concentrated 90% of the national production of wheat, and the share of each one was, respectively, 56.7% and 33.3%. Comparatively, the April estimate surpassed by 20.1% that of March. These figures resulted from the increase of 21.3% in planted are in Paraná, which changed to 996,250 ha, and the increase of average yield by 15.8%, resulting in an estimate of 2,614 kg/ha. In Paraná, 28.9% of the wheat ingrain is expected to be already planted. For Mato Grosso do Sul, the evaluation of April also points to increase of 16.4% in planted area and of 26.9% in average yield.

 

 

If there are good climate conditions, the planting of wheat may be above that of the current estimate, since several economic factors stimulate the increase of its area, such as the restraints to exports by our main wheat supplier, Argentina, the reduced amount of the product in stock, the rise of prices and the charging of a minimum price, as ensured by the government. The graph above points to a trend to recovery of harvested area, which might go back to levels of 2002. Production has increased due to the good prices of this product. The decrease observed in average yield, between 2004 and 2006 occurred due to the bad climatic conditions faced by crops.

 

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

¹ Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale. 

 

² As a reply to requests from users of harvest information, the surveys for cereals, legumes and oilseeds which are now released were conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Company (Conab), a section of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply – (MAPA), as a sequence to the process of harmonization of official harvests, which started in October 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.

                                                      

³ LSPA is a monthly survey of estimate and monitoring of the harvest of the main agricultural products, about which data are obtained through the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA), united at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Group (GCEA) and later, evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).