From January to February, the seasonally adjusted industrial production decreased by 0.5%, after having increases in the previous month (1.7%). In relation to February 2007, the sector presented increase of 9.7%, in the twentieth consecutive month with positive rates; there was accumulated increase of 9.2% in the first two months of the year, in relation to the same period in 2007. The annualized rate, the indicator accumulated in the last twelve months, increased by 6.9% and remained on a growing trend, as observed since April last year.

Production levels were 1.5% below the record reached in October last year (3.4%). The rate of industrial production from January to February was -0.5%, after increase of 1.7% in the previous month. Thirteen of the 27 subsectors surveyed faced decrease in comparison with January results, especially pharmaceutical industry (-33.2%), whose result reflected the technical halt of activity of an important company of this subsector. It is also worth mentioning the negative contributions from food products, which fell by 1.8%, after having accumulated 5.9% of increase in the previous two months, followed by beverages (-3.4%). Among the activities with increase of this indicator, the highlights were electronic material and communication equipment (14.7%), making up for the decrease of 12.6% registered in the previous month; machinery and equipment (2.0%) and petroleum refining and alcohol production (1.2%).

Also in comparison with the previous year, the subsector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-3.9%) faced the biggest decrease among the categories of use, after increase of 2.6% in January. The production of intermediate goods had apparent stability (-.02%), after two months with positive results, when it accumulated increase of 2.4%. Capital goods 93.1%) and durable consumer goods (0.9%) remained on a growing trend.

In the comparison February 2008/February 2007, the sector advanced 9.7%; it was the twentieth consecutive month with positive rates. The profile of increase reached 22 subsectors, and 65% of the products surveyed, being this one the highest dissemination index since August 2004 (72%). Among the activities, the highlights were automotive vehicles (24.5%), machinery and equipment (18.9%), other chemical products (12.5%) metallurgy (11.7%) and food products (5.9%). The main items accounting for the performance of these subsectors were, respectively: cars and trucks; elevators and valves, faucets; herbicides and paints or varnishes; steel ingots, blocks and plates; crystallized sugar and coffee. Among the five subsectors with falling rates, the main contribution was that of pharmaceutical industry (-25.5%), with an unusual result, strongly affected by a technical halt of activity in a big company of the sector.

Still considering February 2007, the indexes by category of use confirmed the leadership of capital goods (25.0%). This performance was observed in all its subsectors, especially capital gods for transportation (35.3%), mainly planes and trucks; for industrial purposes (18.8%), being the highlight mining centers, and for industrial goods for mixed use, due to the contribution of products associated to mobile telephony and computer science. The production of durable consumer goods (20.7%) had its highest rate since June 2005, having been influenced by production of cars (26.9%), mobile telephones (31.4%) and household appliances of the “white type”¹ (12.4%), whose dynamism has been kept by the internal market, based on credit and on the increase of salary volume.

In comparison with February 2007, the subsector of intermediate goods (10.4%) increased at a higher rate than the national average (9.7%) and had its best result since the 11.4% of August 2004, reflecting, this way, the overall increase of its several subsectors. The highlights were those of intermediate goods of the sector petroleum refining and alcohol production (10.8%), metallurgy (11.7%), other chemical products (11.6%), mining and quarrying industries (9.3%) and automotive vehicles industry (17.6%), which reflected the contribution of the following items, respectively: diesel, metallurgy products, herbicides and fertilizers; iron ore; engine pieces. It is also worth mentioning the positive performance of inputs for construction (13.0%), which has increased for fourteen consecutive months, and reached, in February, its highest rate since August 2004 (14.1%). The only category with performance below the overall average, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (1.0%) represented the fourteenth consecutive positive result in this type of comparison, with the highest contribution coming from the subsector of food products and beverages for domestic consumption (2.8%), mainly due to the production of items related to the internal market (coffee, cookies, poultry meat, refined sugar, pasta and milk). On the other hand, negative contributions came from other non-durable goods (-3.1%) and fuels (-2.8%), due, respectively, to the items medicines and magazines; and gasoline.

In the first two months of 2008, in relation to the same period last year, industry grew 9.2%, with increase in 22 subsectors. The production of automotive vehicles (24.3%) kept the leadership in terms of impact on the overall index. Other relevant positive contributions came from machinery and equipment, in which the increase of 14.4% was influenced by the item harvesting machines; and other chemical products, whose increase by 12.8% is associated to the increase of production of herbicides and paints or varnishes for construction.

Considering the indicator accumulated in the year, by category of use, the increase in the beginning of 2008 confirmed the level of increase in 2007. The biggest results were those of capital goods 919.9%) and durable consumer goods (18.1%), both with rhythm of increase twice as that of the overall average. The sector of intermediate goods had the same increase as the average of industry (9.2%), being semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, with rate of 3.5%, below average.

In the first two months of 2008, in relation to the same period in 2007, there was increase of the industrial rhythm, with a rate of 9.2% for the total of industry, overcoming the index of the fourth quarter last year (7.9%). This situation was very significant in the sector of durable consumer goods, with change from 13.1% to 18.1% between the two periods. The sector of intermediate goods, which most affected the industrial structure, also had acceleration, having changed from 6.8% to 9.2%. The segment of capital goods, despite the rate above average, faced losses in dynamism (from 24.0% to 19.9%). On the other hand, the subsector of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods faced decrease, having changed from 4.15 to 3.5%. The maintenance of credit offers, the increase of salary mass, the trust of consumers and of entrepreneurs were the factors affecting the performance of the sector in the beginning of this year. Another highlight is the maintenance of positive results in external sales, which caused impact mainly to the sector producing commodities.

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