In the second evaluation of the harvest 2007, the IBGE estimates a production of 129.4 million tons, 11.0% above the one obtained in the previous year (116.6 million tons).

The second estimate of harvest for this year,  according to the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA)(1), found a positive change, in relation to 2006, for the following products: herbaceous cotton in husk (27.0%), peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (25.4%), oats in grain (24.9%), barley in grain (26.6%), beans in grain 1st harvest (35.1%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (7.2%), castor beans  (82.1%), corn in grain 1st harvest (14.3%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (20.0%), soybeans in grain (8.5%), wheat in grain  (46.0%) and triticale (17.3%).  With negative change stood out peanuts in husk 1st harvest (11.3%), rice in husk (4.0%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (7.0%) and sorghum in grain (9.5%).

In this estimate of the national harvest of grains (2) for 2007, a total production of 129.4 million tons is expected, 1.2% higher than the estimate of January (127.9 million tons) and 11.0% above the one of the previous year which was 116.6 million tons.

Among the Major Regions, the expected volumes of production (and the changes in relation to 2006) were: North, 3.5 million tons (2.97%), Northeast, 11.8 million tons (8.25%), Southeast, 16.1 million tons (13.37%), South, 56.5 million tons (42.02%) and Central West, 41.5 million tons (33.39%).

The second estimate for the harvests of this year, in relation to the previous month, was the following: beans in grain 1st harvest (-3.4%),  beans in grain 2nd harvest (-11.1) corn in grain 1st harvest (1.2%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (8.5%) and soybeans in grain (0.5%).  With negative change, the product that stood out was beans.  States, such as Minas Gerais (-3.6%), Paraná (-2.2%) and Goiás (-29.1%) obtained this change due to the heavy rain.

For beans 2nd harvest it can be observed a decrease of 11.1% in the production of this month, due to low prices. Paraná, major national producer, expects to harvest 276 thousand tons, 37.3% less than in the previous month.

Regarding corn, in the 1st as in the 2nd harvest, the change was positive, respectively 1.2% and 8.5%. The plantation had this change due to the favorable currently commercialization prices. The awaited productions were 36.0 million tons for the 1st harvest and 13.2 million tons for the 2nd harvest.  In Paraná, good prices, favorable climatic conditions and technology brought the soybeans, in February, to expand the production in 0.5%, which caused a significant increase in the production (2.2%) and in its  productivity (4.0%), generating 12.1 million tons with yield of 3.76kg/ha.  In national level the awaited production of this oilseed, for this year, is 56.6 million tons, compared to 52.2 million tons in the previous year.

In a planted area of 45.4 million hectares, there was decrease of 0.1% in relation to 2006.  Among the investigated products, soybeans and corn 1st harvest are the ones which have the major planted areas, with respectively, 20.7 and 9.4 million hectares planted in 2007.

The harvest of temporary products, especially soybeans and corn is already in course in the areas where the sowing has began earlier, and the weather conditions are favorable.  However, in the Central West Region especially in Goiás and Mato Grosso, rainfall is damaging the harvest of soybeans in some localities.  In the next estimate of March, we will be already able to inform the extension of this type of damage.

Notes

(1) Monthly Survey of Estimate and Monitoring of the harvests of the main agricultural products, with information obtained through the Municipal and/or Regional Commissions, organized at state level by the Directing Groups of Agricultural statistics, and then evaluated, at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives of IBGE and of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

(2) Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, oats, soybeans, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale