The harvest of cereal, legumes and oilseeds¹ in 2006 totaled 116,6 million tons, versus the 112.6 million tons harvested in 2005, representing a gain of 4,0 million tons of hectares from one season to the other. In 2006, the harvested area reached 45,5 million hectares, versus 47.6 million of hectares harvested in 2005, a decrease of 4.4%.

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) of December, the highlights in comparison with November were the production estimates of six cultures: herbaceous cotton (3.1%), 2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (-31.1%), barley (4.6%), castor beans (-7.6%), 2^nd harvest corn (3.6%) and wheat (6.0%). With the harvest already finished in all the states, the differences observed between December and November resulted from the reevaluations in the final results for these products.

The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, both in absolute and proportional terms, was distributed among the Major Regions in 2006: South, 48,2 million of tons (41.4%); Central West, 39,7 million tons (34.0%); Southeast, 15,8 million of tons (13.6%), Northeast, 9,6 million tons (8,2 %) and North, 3,3 million tons (2,8%).

In relation to the harvest in 2005, 13 of the 25 products analyzed had positive change in the production estimate: 2nd harvest potatoes (7.7%), 3rd harvest potatoes (3.3%), coffee (21.2%), sugarcane (8.3%), onions (6.4%), 1^st harvest beans (11.2%), 2^nd harvest (26.0%), oranges (1.1%), cassava (3.6%), 1^st corn (15.7%), 2^nd harvest corn (38.7%), soybeans (2.1%) and sorghum (4.9%).

The following products had negative changes: herbaceous seed cotton (-21.3%), 1^st harvest peanuts in husk (-13.2%), 2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (-31.2%), rice in husk (-13.0%), oats (-25.8%), 1^st harvest potatoes (-7.0%), cacao nuts (-13.5%), barley (-40.6%), 3^rd harvest beans (-12.4%), castor beans (-42.6%), wheat (-49.1%) and triticale (-26.8%).

Grain harvest in 2007 may be bigger than in 2006

In December, IBGE conducted the second estimate of planted area or area to be planted, as well as the production for the 2007 harvest. The estimated production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds is 123,9 million tons, 6,3 more than in 2006.

Among the 11 products surveyed², 6 are expected to have positive change in comparison with 2006: herbaceous seed cotton (13.0%), 1^st harvest potatoes (4.2%), sugar cane (5.0%), onions (2.5%), 1^st harvest beans (5.1%) and cassava (2.6%). With negative change are: 1^st harvest peanuts (-6.5%), rice in husk (-0.9%), tobacco in leaf (-5.4%), 1^st harvest corn in grain (-3.3%) and soybeans (-7.8%).

The products expected to have positive change are: herbaceous seed cotton (24.5%), 1^st harvest potatoes (14.7%), sugarcane (5.3%), onions (1.9%), 1^st harvest beans (33.1%), tobacco in leaf (0.8%), cassava (1.2%), 1^st harvest corn (11.0%) and soybeans (5.1%). With negative change, 1^st harvest peanuts in husk (-12.2%) and rice in husk (-4.0%).

The second production estimate for herbaceous seed cotton in  2007 makes up a total of 3,6 million tons, 24.5% more than in 2006 (2,9 million tons). This positive change is due to the recovery of prices both in the external and in the internal market, to the lower world production and also to the necessity of changing of crops in order to control infestations and diseases.   

In Mato Grosso, the main national producer of cotton, the expected production is 1,9 million of tons, 31.3% higher than that in 2006. For planted area and the estimated increases are 28.9% and 1.8%, respectively.

Rice production is expected to fall (-4.0%) in relation to the volume harvested in 2006, with a production of 11,0 million tons. For a planted area of 3,0 million hectares, productivity of 3,717 Kg/ha is expected. In Rio Grande do Sul, where the production of rice is more significant (about 59.0% in 2006), the climate contributes positively to the growth of crops, despite problems related to the supply of water of two areas: Campanha and Fonteira Oeste. The state expects to harvest a total of 5,9 million tons, 12.6% less than in 2006. The estimated planted area is 933 thousand hectares.

The expected production of 1st harvest beans for 2007 is about 2,1 million tons, 33.1% more than in 2006 (1,6 million tons). This increase has occurred due to the influence of good prices at the time of planting and to the recovery of productivity. The production estimated in Paraná is about 601 thousand tons, 33.2% more than in 2006 (451 thousand tons). Area and productivity are expected to increase too, by 11.8% and 19.2%, respectively.

The production of first harvest corn is expected to increase by 11.0% in relation to 2006, with a total amount of 34,9 to be obtained in 2007. The area is expected to decrease by 3.3%, and  productivity, to increase by 10.7%, showing recovery in relation to losses in the previous harvest. In the South Region, which concentrates most of the corn produced, the total amount expected is 17,0 million tons, in comparison  with 15,1 million tons in 2006. The three producing states, Paraná (5.7%), Santa Catarina (25.0%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.5%) are expected to increase. As expected at national level, there must also be recovery of the productivity in these states, by 17.8%, 31.4% and 20.3%, respectively.

The second prospect for soybeans shows increase of 5.1% of the production estimate, as a consequence of the recovery of the levels of productivity. Nevertheless, there has been fall in the area, since in the beginning of the implementation of crops, prices were not attractive, producers were facing decapitalization, and there were some logistics problems which resulting in future expenses for the negotiation of the harvests in 2007. At national level, production of 54.9% is expected. Planted area must fall by 7.8% and productivity must present a gain of 13.7%, that is, with 20,3 million of hectares and 2,706 Kg/ha, respectively. In Paraná and Mato Grosso, the major Brazilian producers of soybeans, the estimate is a total of 11,8 million and 13,7 million tons. Productivity must be 25.9% higher in Paraná and 6.3% in Mato Grosso.

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¹Cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale.

²In order to obtain the estimate for national production in 2007, figures in the areas and states in which the research was conducted were aggregated to those found in a prospect based on previous data of the winter crops (oats, rye, barley and wheat), and for the 2^nd and 3^rd harvest products.