In November, the harvest estimates for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale) reached 115,9 tons, with decrease of 0.2% in relation to October (116,2 million tons) and increase of 3.0% compared to the previous year (112,6 million tons).

Highlights of the November estimate versus results in October

In the comparison of the November edition of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production – LSPA with the October edition, the highlights are the changes in the estimates for five products: oats in grain (-8.8%), barley in grain (-6.1%), castor beans (-2.1%), wheat in grain (-1.1%) and triticale in grain (-6.1%).

In relation to winter crops (oats, barley, wheat and triticale), whose harvests are concentrated mainly in the states of the South Region of Brazil, the reductions observed in November may have occurred due to problems in Paraná. In this state, the meteorological conditions did not favor theses crops. The lack of rain has caused serious damage the implementation and initial development of crops. Frosts in the end of August and in the beginning of September were also extremely relevant to the decreases observed so far.

With reference to castor beans, the negative change in the month’s estimate is 2.1%. In the states of Piauí and Pernambuco, which have had increases of 13.3% and 4.4%, respectively, the figures result from harsh climatic conditions (lack of rain), and also from problems related to inappropriate handling of crops. In the state of Ceará, the decrease of 12.5% in the production of castor beans resulted from the reduced harvested area, due to the low prices and to the difficulty in commercializing this product.

Production of legumes, cereals and oilseeds

The field survey conducted by the GCEA System¹ on the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale), in November, points to a total production of 115,9 million tons. This figure is 0.2% lower than that of October (116,2 million tons), and 3.0% higher than in 2005 (112,6 million tons).

Corn and soybeans, accounting for about 80% of the national production, had, in absolute figures, the highest increases in production, surpassing the previous harvest: corn in grain – 1st harvest, 4,260,465 tons (15.7%); corn in grain – 2^nd harvest, 2,695,626 tons (33.9%) and soybeans, 1,085,534 (2.1%).

The harvest of summer crops in the main grain-producing centers is already over. Winter crops, especially wheat crops in Paraná (South Region and part of the Southwest Region of the state) and Rio Grande do Sul, the main producers, are now in the last phase of the harvesting process. For this product, the lowest production expected for this harvest is accountable to the reduction of planted area, which occurred due to the low prices of this product since the last harvest, and also to the difficulty in commercializing it (competition with the imported product, both in grain and as flour). Besides these economic factors, the bad climatic conditions faced since the beginning of the planting period, such as the lack of rain and the high temperatures in the beginning of winter, besides frosts (August/September), determined the significant decrease of the average yield (-25.5%), and also the loss of land in some producing areas (about 200,000 hectares). As a consequence, the estimated production (2,238,5 thousand tons of wheat) has been significantly reduced (by 51.9%) in comparison with the previous harvest. It was, in fact, the lowest of the latest five harvests.

In absolute figures, the production of cereal, legumes and oilseeds is distributed among the Major Regions as follows: South, 48,1 million tons; Central West, 39,1 million tons; Southeast, 15,8 million tons; Northeast, 9,6 million tons and North, 3,3 million tons.

Comparison between the estimates for November 2006 and the harvest in 2005

In November, IBGE conducted the 11th national evaluation of the agriculture production in 2006. Among the main products investigated by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production – LSPA, 13 had positive changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: potatoes – 2^nd harvest (7.7%), potatoes – 3^rd harvest (3.3%), coffee in grain (21.6%), sugarcane (7.9%), onions (5.8%), bean in grain – 1^st harvest (11.3%), beans in grain – 2^nd harvest (26.3%), oranges (1.1%), cassava (6.6%), corn in grain – 1^st harvest (15.7%), corn in grain – 2^nd harvest (33.9%), soybeans (2.1%) and sorghum in grain (1.2%).

The changes were negative for: herbaceous cotton (seed) (23.7%), peanuts in husk – 1^st harvest (13.2%), peanuts in husk – 2^nd harvest (0.0%), rice in husk (12.9%), oats in grain (26.0%) potatoes – 1^st harvest (7.0%), cocoa beans (12.4%), barley in grain (43.25), beans in grain – 3^rd harvest (12.0%), castor beans (37.8%), wheat in grain (51.9%) and triticale (26.6%).

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¹Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Group