IBGE conducted, in October, the first forecast of planted areas or areas to be planted, as well as the production of the harvest 2007, in the Southeast, South and Central West Regions, and in the states of Rondônia, Maranhão, Piauí and Bahia.  The production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2007 is estimated in 122.391 million tons, higher by 5.34% than the one obtained in 2006.  For the estimate of national production 2007, the values obtained in the regions and states where the survey was conducted were added to values obtained in a forecast.  This forecast was obtained through data of previous years for the winter harvest (oats, rye, barley and wheat), and for the products of the second and third harvests, which due to the agricultural calendar, still do not have the first estimates, besides the other states were the research of projection has not been conducted.
 
First forecast of the harvest 2007 presents reduction of 6.05% in planted area

This initial evaluation of the planted area or area to be planted, when considered the eleven products investigated, is 44.981 million hectares, less by 6.05% in relation to the planted area of 2006, which was 47.880 million hectares.  In absolute terms, this reduction totals 2.900 million hectares. Comparing with the area harvested in 2006 (46.097 million hectares), the area for the harvest 2007 presents a reduction of 2.42%.

Among the products investigated, five present positive change in relation to the planted area in 2006*: herbaceous cotton in seed (20.50%); potatoes 1st harvest (4.35%); sugar cane ( 2.14%); onions (2.30%) and beans in grain 1st harvest (4.13%). 

With negative change, peanuts in husk 1st harvest (-2.01%); rice in husk (-3.95%); tobacco leafs (-4.71%); cassava (-1.15%); corn in grain 1st harvest (-4.28%) and soybeans in grain (-7.03%).

Regarding the expected productions, the following products have positive change: herbaceous cotton in seed (31.07%); potatoes 1st harvest (12.60%); sugar cane (2.46%); onions (1.67%); beans in grain 1st harvest  (32.18%); tobacco leafs (1.91%); corn in grain 1st harvest (9.65%) and soybeans in grain (5.50%).  With negative change: peanuts in husk 1st harvest (-7.75%), rice in husk (-7.64%), and cassava (-3.83%).

* For sugar cane and cassava the comparison as conducted with the planted area.

COTTON SEED 

In this first forecast a production of 3.673 million tons of cotton is expected in comparison with 2.802 million tons obtained in 2006, indicating an increment of 31.07%.  This gain of expected production is directly related to the increase of 20.50% in the planted area.  The main factor which contributes for this increment is the recovery of the prices of the product, in the domestic as well as in the foreign market, since the estimate of world production is lower than the expected demand.  In Mato Grosso, main state producer, which answers for 50.79% of the national production, the estimate for this harvest, contrarily to the previous year, presents an increment of 39.80%. This occurs mainly, due to the perspective of good prices in the period of commercialization.  In this state, the majority of producers, form groups, placing the production directly in the foreign market, through future contracts obtaining in this way, better results.

RICE

In the case of rice, in this first forecast for 2007, the expected production is 10.633 million tons, lower by 7.64% to the one obtained in 2006.  This reduction occurs mainly due to Rio Grande do Sul, main producer, which presents a decrease of 17.16% in the expected production, 12.74% in the planted area and 5.10% in the average yield.  The regions of Campanha and Fronteira Oeste are with low hydric reserves, causing the lowest planted area in the State.  Stands out, also, that Mato Grosso main state producer of this cereal in the Central West, registers a small recovery of the planted area (2.58%). It is worth mentioning the problems of the soybeans producers in the obtaining of credit for the continuation of the planting of this oilseed, besides the fact that rice has a low cost of production and also has new varieties with high productivity (up to 70 sc/ha).
 

BEANS

In the first forecast for the national harvest of beans planted in the beginning of the period of raining in 2007, due to the remunerating prices for the products, it can be observed for the expected production a significant increment of 32.18% in relation to the production obtained in 2006 when a volume of 1.523 million tons was harvested, vis-à-vis 2.013 million tons in 2007.  In the main state producers of beans 1st harvest - Paraná and Bahia - increments, respectively, of 45.26% and 197.08% are expected, with production of 617 thousand tons and 224 thousand tons.  Stands out that in Paraná the harvest was already conducted in 80% of the expected area, nevertheless in Bahia, although with the perspective of growth, the lack of rain has hindered the beginning of planting.

CORN FIRST HARVEST

For the corn 1st harvest, although it can be observed in the main producing regions a decrease in the planted area or area to be planted, a production of 34.503 million tons is expected, higher by 9.65% to the one registered in 2006, favored by the expectation of an average yield of 3,748 kg/ha, above in 10.59% to the one recorded in the current year.  It can be observed that the favorable scenario for the culture occurs due to the good climatic conditions until the present moment, for the sowing, as well as for the development of the crops already planted.  On the other hand, the gain in productivity expected, is a consequence of the recovery in the average yield, considerably damaged in the last harvest due to unfavorable climatic conditions.

SOYBEANS

Regarding soybeans, an increment of 5.50% in the expected production for 2007, summing approximately 55.238 million tons, compared to a volume of 52.357 million tons obtained in the previous harvest. The planted area or area to be planted shows a decrease of 7.03%, while the expected yield presents an increment of 13.28%, being respectively, 20.496 million hectares and 2,695 kg/ha.

In this first estimate, only the Central West Region, main producer of soybeans, with 44.87% of the national production, decreased (-4.19%).  The other regions had growth, being that the South Region, second major, with 38.38% of the national production, shows increase of 19.53%, amounting to 21.197 million tons.  In the major producing state, Mato Grosso, the problems observed in the last harvest, of agricultural sanitary causes (Asian rust, whitefly, nematodes, among others), and of climatic causes (drought in the period of planting and raining in the harvest) and of financial causes (indebtedness due to the low quotation of the product vis-à-vis the high cost of production), explain the pronounced reduction in the area to be planted in the State.

In the South Region, on the contrary than the other regions of the country, the evaluation of the planted area or area to be planted, of 8.200 million hectares is slightly higher than the one of the previous harvest  (0.75%) being expected a production of 21.197 million tons, higher by 19.53%.  It can be observed that this production will be obtained, if the normal climatic conditions continue maintaining the estimated average yield of 2,585 kg/ha (18.58% above the value obtained in 2006).  Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, second and third major national producers, forecast for this harvest, productions of 11.820 million tons and 8.415 million tons, registering increments of 26.08% and 11.32%, respectively.

In the Southeast Region, stands out Minas Gerais, which presents an area lower in 6.34% when compared to the planted are of the previous harvest.  This decrease occurred due to the bad market conditions, which made agriculturists from this state to choose corn and cotton instead of soybeans.  The production may reach 2,606,637 tons, higher by 6.22% to the one obtained in 2006 due to the increment of 12.90% in the average yield, recovering in part the losses of the last year.

For the Northeast the planted area or area to be planted of 1.471 million hectares shows decrease of 1.14% compared to the one of 2006 due to the fact that in Bahia, major producer of the Region, the current perspective is of decrease in the area of soybeans culture (-2.48%).  Nevertheless, similarly to what is occurring in the rest of the country, the expected production of the Northeast of 3.715 million tons is above the one of 2006 in 7.18% standing out Bahia which informs a production of 2,043,000 tons, higher by 2.59%, due to the expected increment in the average yield of 5.21%.
   
   
In 2006, harvest shall increase by 3.21% 

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) of October, stand out reductions in the estimates of production in relation to September of four products: oats in grain (-5.75%), barley in grain (-13.82%), wheat in grain (-11.51%) and triticale in grain (-4.19%).  In the case of wheat, main product investigated in this period, there was decrease in the average yield in all the states of the South Region and also in Mato Grosso do Sul.  Stands out the loss of 100 thousand hectares in Rio Grande do Sul due, mainly, to bad weather (frosts in September).

The field research conducted by the IBGE, in October, for the calendar year of 2006, of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor bean, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale), shows a production of 116.183 million tons, 3.21% above the one obtained in the harvest of 2005 (112.574 million tons).

Compared to the production informed in September (116.546 million tons), it can be observed a reduction of 0.31%, as a consequence of losses observed in the winter cultures.  In relation to wheat, it can be observed, in the comparison with the previous year, a loss of 51.42%.  The main causes of this significant reduction are the reduction by 25.21% in the total planted area, which occurred in all the producing states, with the exception of Santa Catarina.  It is worth mentioning the low quotation of the product in the domestic market, besides difficulties observed in the commercialization of the last harvests. Another problem was the loss of investing conditions of producers which together with the non-compliance and the consequent credit restrictions determined the planting of this harvest with low technological level. Finally the climatic adversities, such as the drought observed in the initial period of the development of the crop, high temperatures in the beginning of winter, anticipating the cycle of the crop, besides strong frosts which occurred in the end of August and beginning of September, caused the observed reduction of 25.06%, in the average yield.  The factors which caused this significant reduction in the crop of wheat, also influenced negatively the other winter crops: oats (-18.86%), barley (-39.49%) and triticale (-21.83%).

In absolute terms and by percentages of participation in the national harvest, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, is distributed as follows in the Major Regions - North: 3.346 million tons (2.88%); Northeast: 9.673 million tons (8.33%); Southeast: 15.803 million tons (13.60%); South: 48.285 million tons (41.56%) and Central West: 39.076 million tons (33.63%).

Thirteen crops increased and twelve decreased in the tenth evaluation of the agricultural harvest 2006

IBGE conducted, in October, the tenth evaluation, in national level, of the agricultural harvest 2006. Among the main products investigated by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA, thirteen presented a positive change in the estimate of production in relation to the previous year: potatoes 2nd harvest (7.71%), potatoes 3rd harvest (3.29%), coffee in grain (21.51%), sugar cane (7.82%), onions (5.93%), beans in grain 1st harvest (9.18%), beans in grain 2nd harvest (25.85%), oranges (1.03%), cassava (7.10%), corn in grain 1st  harvest (15.88%), corn in grain 2nd harvest (33.86%), soybeans in grain (2.38%) and sorghum in grain (1.21%).

The change is negative in the cases of the crops of herbaceous cotton in seed (-23.51%), peanuts in husk  1st harvest (-12.75%), peanuts in husk 2nd harvest (-0.10%), rice in husk (-12.95%), oats in grain (-18.86%), potatoes 1st harvest (-7.03%), cacao beans (12.28%), barley in grain (-39.49%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (-12.03%), castor beans (-36.52%), wheat in grain (-51.42%) and triticale in grain (-21.83%).