The estimated production for 2006 is about 116,546 million tons of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybeans, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale).  The September result represents a reduction of 0.76%  in relation to the production estimated in August (117,442 million tons ¹).However, the estimate for this year is 3.53% higher than that in 2005 (112,574 million tons). Corn and soybeans, which make up about 80% of the national production of grains, had, in absolute figures, production gains in comparison with the previous year: 1^st harvest corn, 4,323,207 tons (15.92%), 2^nd  harvest corn, 2,633,958 tons (33.08%) and soybeans, 1,243,627 tons (2.43%). These data are part of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, conducted by IBGE.

In terms of the planted area in 2006, estimated to be 45,618 million hectares, it was observed that, in September, there was fall of 4.11% in comparison with last year. Among the main products investigated, in absolute figures, the biggest decreases of planted areas were those of the following crops: rice 954,102 ha (-24.35%), soybeans, 922,160 ha (-4.02%) and wheat,  703,964 ha (-29.85%). The harvest of the summer products is already finished in the major grain producing centers. The only exception is the Northeast Region, which, due to its agricultural calendar, still presents some unharvested crops. The 2^nd and 3^rd harvest crops and the winter ones are still being monitored in the field.

The situation of 2nd harvest beans remains favorable, since this crop has had an increase of 33.08%, in comparison to the amount produced in 2005. The highlights were the production increments in the states of Paraná (66.40%), Mato Grosso (7.31%), Mato Grosso do Sul (99.09%) and Goiás (51.92%), as a consequence of a bigger harvested area and of the good performance of crops.

The estimated production of wheat, the main winter product, is 2,557,364 tons, a significant reduction of about 45.10%, in comparison with last year. This is the lowest result since 2000, when a total of 1,725,792 tons were produced. It is also similar to the figures registered in the beginning of the 1980’s. Two of the main causes to this reduction seem to be the 25.39% reduction of the overall planted area in all the producing states, besides the low prices of this product both in the internal and in the external market. It is also important to mention the difficulties in the commercialization of the latest harvests. Besides, the financial difficulties faced by producers and the subsequent restriction to financing and credit resulted in a harvest characterized by low technological level. In addition to these factors, the dry period occurred in the months of April and May, and the frosts in August and in September also contributed to the reduced harvest this year.

The production of other winter products, such as oats, barley and triticale, when compared to figures in 2005, decreased by 13.90%, 29.78%, and 18.41%, respectively. The falls occurred due to the lower planted area, as a consequence of the low prices of the previous harvest, and, also, of the damage caused by the frosts in the months of August and September.

In absolute figures, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the Major Regions is distributed as follows: South Region, 48,639 million tons (41.73%); Central West Region, 39,040 million tons (33.50%); Southeast Region, 15,799 million tons (13.56%); Northeast Region, 9,712 million tons (8.33%) and North Region 3,357 million tons (2.88%).

Frosts cause the expected production of wheat to be 23.43% lower

In the comparison August/September 2006, the highlights are the changes in the estimated harvests of nine products: oats (-10.22%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (1.45%), barley (-14.43%), 2^nd harvest beans (-1.44%), 3^rd harvest beans (-5.83%), 2^nd harvest corn (0.60%), soybeans  (-0.09%), sorghum (2.72%), wheat (-23.43%) and triticale (-5.44%).

Considering soybeans, whose harvest is concentrated in the first semester, a little change in production was observed (-0.09%), due to the analysis of the final results of the harvest in the state of Minas Gerais.

There was slight increase of the production of 2^nd harvest corn (0.60%) due to the changes effected in the estimates for Bahia (0.95%) and Goiás (6.48%).

The production of 2^nd  and 3^rd  harvest beans decreased by 1.44% and 5.83%, respectively. For 2^nd harvest beans the fall resulted from the adjustment in the data of Ceará (-4.29%) and of the average yield in Bahia (-7.24%). The result for 3^rd harvest beans reflects the reduced production of Goiás (-14.41%), caused by the extremely cold weather, above all, in the main producing center in the state, the municipality of Cristalina.

The crops of oats (-10.22%), barley (-4.43%) and triticale (-5.44%), predominantly present in the Southern part of the country, faced falls due to the damages brought by frosts in Paraná and in Rio Grande do Sul in the months of August and September. For wheat, the main winter product, the decrease of  23.43% reflected the losses caused by frost in the last few months.

Among the main products investigated by the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production – LSPA, 13 items had a positive change of production estimate in comparison with the previous year: 2nd harvest potatoes (9.09%), 3rd harvest potatoes (4.34%), coffee in grain (21.04%), sugar cane (7.65%), onions (5.59%), 1^st harvest beans (9.32%), 2^nd harvest beans (27.24%), oranges (0.07%), cassava (7.50%), 1^st harvest corn (15.92%), 2^nd harvest corn (33.08%), soybeans (2.43%) and sorghum in grain (2.43%).  The change was negative for the crops of: herbaceous seed cotton (-23.52%), 1st harvest peanuts in husk (-12.75%), 2nd harvest peanuts in husk (-0.10%), rice in husk (-12.99%), oats in  grain (-13.90%), 1^st harvest potatoes (-7.03%), cacao nuts (-12.28%), barley in grain (-29.78%), 3^rd harvest beans (-12.14%), castor beans (31.57%), sorghum in grain (-0.55%), wheat in grain (-45.10%) and triticale in grain (-18.41%).

¹ It is important to highlight that  the monthly estimate of the production of graaijns of LSPA may be adjusted from one month to the other, due to new data which may eventually appear. Therefore, in August 2006, the preliminary estimate, released by IBGE in September, was 117,694 million tons.