In February, IBGE carried out the second evaluation of the national agricultural production for 2006. The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, peanuts, rice, beans , castor beans, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale) is 123,933 million tons, 1.71% less than in January (126.083 million tons), and 10.21% more than in 2005 (112, 454 million tons). The difference of about two million tons between the figures of January and February is a consequence of the loss of corn and soybeans, especially in the states of Bahia, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul, where there was damage caused by long dry periods which occurred in the vegetative cycle of these crops.

Among the main products included in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production – LSPA, the ones with positive change in the estimated production in 2006 versus the amount harvested in 2005 were: 2^nd harvest potatoes (5.03%), coffee in grain (19.38%), sugarcane (5.04%), onions (3.19%), barley grain (12.06%), 1st harvest beans in grain (20.18%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (9.89%), oranges (2.63%), cassava (3.23%), 1^st harvest grain corn (19.58%), 2^nd harvest grain corn (25.16%), soybeans (11.65%), grain sorghum (5.18%), grain wheat (4.64%) and triticale (2.93%). Negative change was observed for the following products: herbaceous seed cotton (-22.39%), 1^st harvest peanuts in husk (-5.58%), 2^nd harvest peanuts in husk (-13.78%), rice in husk (-14.53%), grain oats (-2.34%), 1^st harvest potatoes (-6.83%), 3^rd harvest potatoes (-13.84%), cocoa beans (-6.03%), 3^rd harvest beans (-1.27%) and castor seeds (-21.82%).

There was reduction of planted area (1.49%) in relation to the previous year, resulting in 47 million hectares in 2006. Soybeans and 1^st harvest corn are the most representative products in terms of planted area, with, respectively, 22,0 and 9,5 million hectares planted this year.

In absolute numbers, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds is distributed among the five Major Regions in the following way : South Region, 52,079 million tons; Central West Region, 41, 387 million tons; Southeast Region, 16, 570 million tons; Northeast Region, 10, 222 million tons and North Region, 3,676 million tons.

Comparison of January and February agricultural production estimates

In comparison with January, there are seven highlights in terms of production estimates: sugarcane (0.66%), 1^st harvest beans in grain (-10.31%), 2^nd harvest beans in grain (11.75%), oranges (4.25%), 1^st harvest grain corn (3.84%), 2^nd harvest grain corn (9.60%) and soybeans (-2.47%).

The negative change observed this month in the estimates for 1^st harvest beans occurred due to data relative to the states of Bahia (-37.33%), Minas Gerais (-29.28%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-37.60%) and Goiás (-19.30%), where long dry periods damaged bean crops.

In case of 2^nd harvest beans, expansion of 11.75% is expected in February, due to the reasonable prices for investment in this type of crop. In Paraná, the major national producer, the expected production is 276 thousand tons, versus 138 thousand tons obtained in the same period in 2005.

Concerning 1st harvest corn, the reduction by 3.84% of the estimated production reflects the situation in the states of Bahia (-39.23%) and Minas Gerais (-16.37%) due to the lack of rain during the principal phases of the development of this crop.

In terms of 2^nd harvest corn, there is, in the beginning of the planting period, increase of 9.60% of production in relation to the data released last month. In Paraná, the major national producer, the increase was 38.00% and production of about 3,4 million tons is expected this year. Data from some other states are still necessary in order to obtain the national figures relative to this product.

The reduction by 2.47% of the estimated production of soybeans this month is a consequence, mainly, of the change of data previously released about the states of Bahia (12.35%), Minas Gerais (6.30%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (10.25%). The lack of rain, as well as its uneven occurrence, caused decrease of productivity in these states, 17.39%, 5.30% and 10.30%, respectively.

As for oranges, the estimate for February is about 18,3 million tons, 4.25% more than last month and 2.63% more than in 2005, when 17,9 million tons were harvested. São Paulo, a state which holds about 80% of the Brazilian production of this fruit, 15,0 million tons are expected, with increases of 2.21% in relation to 2005 and of 4.32% when compared to the previous month (January/06), respectively. The fact that it is a biannual crop and the favorable climatic conditions in the latest harvests contributed to this positive results in the present year.

In terms of sugarcane, expansion of 0.66% of the estimated of production in relation to the previous month is observed. In comparison with 2005, there was increase of about 5.04%, once part of the new planted areas are included in the production process this year. The expected amount is 443 million tons. In São Paulo, which holds about 59% of the sugarcane production in the country, 260 million tons are expected to be harvested, surpassing the figure of 3,00% obtained in the previous year.