The fourth harvest estimate for 2005 points to a production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seeds, peanuts, rice, beans, castor seeds, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale) ...

The fourth harvest estimate for 2005 points to a production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seeds, peanuts, rice, beans, castor seeds, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum and triticale) of about 116,341 million tons, differently from 2004, when 119,369 million tons were obtained . The estimate presents a decrease of 2,54% in relation to the 2004 harvest, and of 2,63% in relation to March’s estimate.

In comparison with 2004, there is an increase of 0.91% (48 million hectares) in planted area. The Central West region, responsible for 37.31% of the total production for this harvest (43,409 million tons), shows an increase of 8.57% in relation to the previous year. The North, Northeast and Southeast regions, responsible for 3.47% (4,037 million tons), 9.05% (10,530 million tons ) and 15.82% (18,409 million tons ) , have had an increase in production of 13.52%, 12.65% and 4.34%, respectively. The production in the South region, 34.34% of the national amount (39,956 million tons), has decreased by 18.19% in comparison with 2004. It must be pointed out that, for the winter crops, (wheat, oats, rye and barley), the estimates are based on previous data.

Situation of crops in April in relation to March 2005

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) released in April, there are significant changes in the estimate for the production of three items: beans in grain - 2^nd harvest (4.39%), corn in grain – 2^nd harvest (-17.81%) and soybeans in grain (-2.30%).

The positive variation in the estimate for beans – 2^nd harvest is related to the contribution of the state of Bahia. Productivity has increased by 38% and estimated production by 31% in the state, despite a decrease of 5% in planted area in relation to March. The production of beans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul has declined in 49% and 12%, respectively, due to dry seasons in municipalities which are major bean producers.

Lack of rain has also affected corn – 2^nd harvest. In April, significant retraction is expected in Paraná (-26%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-55%) and Goiás (-7%), with a state production of 2,3 million tons, 840 thousand tons and 650 thousand tons, respectively.

Meteorological phenomena – hydric deficiency during the vegetative period and rain during the harvest period – also account for a smaller production of soybeans in April. The negative effect generated by those climate conditions was the reduction of production in the states of Paraná (-2.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-14.8%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (-10.3%). The estimated production for each of the three states is 9,3 million tons , 2,6 million tons and 3,8 million tons, respectively. The first harvest of most products is almost concluded.

Situation of crops in April 2005 in relation to 2004 agricultural production

Among the products selected, the ones presenting a positive variation in production estimate in relation to 2004 are: upland cotton seed (5.97%), rice in husk (0.02%), beans in grain – 1^st harvest (6.57%), beans in grain – 3^rd harvest (2.22%), castor seeds (55.89%) and soybeans (5.17%). A negative variation is registered for: beans in grain – 2^nd harvest (-1.09%), corn in grain – 1^st harvest (-10.28%), corn in grain – 2^nd harvest (-21.88%), sorghum in grain (-24.12%) and wheat in grain (-1.29%).

With reference to 2^nd harvest corn, whose production, as that of winter crops, is analyzed this time of year, a reduction of 22% in the expected production and of 10% in areas dedicated to corn planting are registered in this second planting period. One of the major reasons for the decrease is lack of rain during the planting period. There is enormous climate risk when crops are grown before or after planting season. The frosts in the South region and in Mato Grosso do Sul and the great space between precipitations in the Central West region are also relevant; those two states are the major 2^nd harvest corn producers in the country. The major decreases are observed in Paraná (-32%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-55%) and Goiás (-37%), with a production of 2,3 million tons, 840 thousand tons and 650 thousand tons, respectively. Consequently, a total of 8,332 million tons is expected for 2005, differently from 2004, when the total obtained was 10,665 million tons, considering an equivalent harvest season.

As for wheat, the first estimate for 2005 points to a production of about 5,7 million tons, 1.3% less than the amount produced in 2004. The only exception is the state of Rio Grande do Sul, where, due to the agricultural calendar sowing is still to be finished. Paraná, the biggest national producer, responsible for 55% of the wheat produced in the country, is expected to harvest a volume of 3,2 million tons, 4,4% more than in 2004. In other states, where wheat is not a primary product, the variation in production occurs as follows: Minas Gerais (-39%), São Paulo (-7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (-43%) and Goiás (-93%). The decrease in production in the aforementioned states is related to limited planting areas , a consequence of producers’ dissatisfaction with current prices.

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