The national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds (cotton seed, ,peanuts, rice, beans, castor seeds, corn, soybeans, oats, rye, barley, sunflower seeds, sorghum, wheat and triticale) may reach 119,488 million tons in 2005, an increase of only 0.10% in relation to 2004, when 119,369 million tons were obtained. Growth in comparison to the previous year is predicted in all the Major Regions, except in the South, which presented a decrease of 15.77%.

The data are March’s estimate for the harvest in 2005, forecasted by IBGE through the LSPA (Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production). This estimate contains some simulations, especially for the winter crops (wheat, oats, rye and barley) and for the second and third harvests of some products, due to the agricultural calendar.

The regional distribution of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds predicted for 2005 is: Central West, 37.89%; North, 3.36%; Northeast, 8,90%; Southeast, 15.42% and South, 34.43%. All the major producers, except the South region, show an increase in relation to the previous harvest : Central West (13.24%), North (12.97%), Northeast (13.75%), Southeast (4.43%) and South (-15.77%).

Situation of crops in March 2005 in relation to February 2005

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) released in March, in comparison with the previous month, the following variations in the estimate of production are highlighted: upland cotton (7.40%), beans - first harvest (-3.13%), castor beans (6.09%) and soybeans (-2.89%).

The rise of the production estimate for upland cotton in March is a consequence of the expansion of crop areas in the states of Bahia, São Paulo and Goiás, which represent, respectively, an increase of 25.25%, 35.89% e 4,92% in the production expected for this harvest.

In terms of beans (first harvest) production, a decrease of 3.13% is observed this month. That is especially true in the state of Ceará, with a decrease of 4.51% in its area and 22.10% in its productivity in relation to last month. The recent drought in the state accounts for these figures.

Regarding castor seed, the forecast of production for this month points to an expansion of 6.09% in relation to February. The major increases registered in March were in Minas Gerais (8.47%) and São Paulo (62.38%). The decrease of 23.12% in Ceará is due to the drought occurred in this period. The positive variation in Minas Gerais and São Paulo reflects the current situation of castor seed growth in the Brazilian agriculture, a result of government measures related to this product.

The soybeans harvest has undergone a downturn because of long dry periods in its main production centers - a decrease of 2.89% in March. That is a consequence of changes referring to the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, where there has been a reduction of 19.67% in production and of 19.23% in the expected productivity.

Situation of crops in March 2005 in relation to the production of 2004

Among the products analyzed, the ones showing a positive variation in the estimate of production in relation to the previous year are: upland cotton seed (6.74%), beans – first harvest (8.66%), castor beans (54.04%), and soybeans (7.64%). A negative variation was registered in: rice in husk (-0.82%), beans – second harvest (-5.24%), beans - third harvest (-0.28%), corn – first harvest (-9.23%), corn – second harvest (-4.95%), sorghum (-24.68%) and wheat (-0.25).

Similarly to that of 2004, the harvest of 2005 is characterized by harsh climate conditions , and dry periods which have caused losses in the Brazilian agricultural production. Among the most seriously affected products are soybeans and corn , especially in the South and in part of the Central West regions, being the state of Mato Grosso do Sul the most damaged place so far.

In December of 2004, when the third estimate of production for 2005 was released, the expected figure was 134,906 million tons. After the problems caused by drought, the estimate is about 119,488 million tons, which represents about 15,5 million tons in damage, when the figures of December/2004 and March 2005 are compared.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the state with the highest damage rate, losses of about 3,4 million tons of corn and 6,4 million tons of soybeans were registered , considering the aforementioned period (December/2004 and March/2005). The estimates of production (March 2005) are about 1,5 million tons for corn and 3 million tons for soybeans.

In Paraná, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, considering the same period, the losses of soybeans - the most seriously damaged type of crop - were 2,8 million tons, 280 thousand tons e 1,2 million tons, respectively.

It must be pointed out that there may be more losses during the harvest , since the excess of rain has been causing problems for the crops , mainly for the soybeans ones. That is more likely to happen in the Central West region , in the state of Mato Grosso and in part of the South Region . Only in coming forecasts will it be possible to measure the effects of those problems on the harvest.

Regarding second harvest corn, which is at a vegetative growth stage in some regions and in is still being sown in others (mainly in the places where planting is done later), a production of 10,137 million tons is expected for the harvest of 2005 , an amount 5% inferior to that obtained last year. Paraná, the biggest national producer, expects to harvest about 3,075 million tons, 8% less than the amount obtained in the harvest of 2004. Minas Gerais and Goiás have also presented a reduction of 8% and 32%, respectively, in relation to the previous year. On the other hand, the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, another important producer , presents an increase of 3%, and is expected to have a production of approximately 3 million tons.