Only Rio de Janeiro registers stability

The regional industrial production indexes demonstrated that the result of 7.7%, observed for the Country’s total in the end of the first semester, reflected an increase in the production rhythm in the 14 surveyed locations. And, although Rio de Janeiro did not register growth in the semester, the region reverted its falling trend, going from –0.2% in the first quarter, to 0.2% in the second quarter, remaining, in the meantime, as the least dynamic location this year.

The other locations registered an increase in industrial production during the first semester of 2004, with the Northeast region, Pernambuco, Bahia, Ceará and São Paulo, experiencing a significant acceleration in growth rates throughout the first six months of the year. The Northeast passed from a growth rate of 2.0% in the first quarter, to an increase of 9.6% in the following quarter, with the indexes of Pernambuco changing from 4.3% to 11.1%, Bahia (from 7.3% to 12.7%) and Ceará (from 2.0% to 6.3%). The industry in São Paulo, that registered 7.7% in the first quarter of 2004, reached a rate of 13.4% in the second, with this difference being explained mainly by the increase in the production of automobiles.

The industries in Minas Gerais (from 0.6% in the first quarter to 3.9% in the second), Espírito Santo (from 2.5% to 5.5%), Pará (from 7.1% to 9.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 4.2% to 6.9%), Amazonas (from 16.0% to 18.3%) and Goiás (from 4.3% to 5.3%) registered less intense growth rates. The Country’s total growth, with a result of 7.7% for the end of the first semester, reflected an acceleration of industrial activity of 6.0% in the first and 9.3% in the second.

The trend of increasing rhythm, from one quarter to another, is noted in practically all surveyed areas, with exception of Paraná, that grew 8.7% in the first quarter and 2.7% in the second, due to the halt of the oil refining sector for the expansion of productive capacity. Santa Catarina, on the other hand, led the rate’s acceleration movement, with an increase of 3.2% in the first quarter and 14.0% in the second.

All locations grew in the comparison to June 2003

In the comparison between June 2004 and June 2003, that demonstrated an increase of 13.0% for the country’s total, the regional indexes were positive for the 14 locations, although the magnitude of some results were mainly explained by the comparison base that, in June 2003, indicated a declining trend of production in most locations. In this way, the most significant rates were registered in Amazonas (22.1%), Bahia (21.7%), Santa Catarina (18.2%) and São Paulo (17.7%).

In June, the industrial production indicators for Amazonas were broadly positive, remaining ahead in comparison to the other surveyed areas. The state presented respective growth rates of 22.1% in the monthly index, 18.3% in the quarterly, 17.2% in the accrued year and 12.8% in the last twelve months.

In the comparison between June 2004 and June 2003, ten out of eleven activities expanded, with a highlight for electronic material and communications equipment (34.5%) and food and beverages (17.8%), mainly due to the greater production of television sets, cellular and powdered and syrup ingredients for the preparation of beverages. The only segment that experienced a decrease was that of metal products (-11.5%), mainly due to the decreased manufacturing of shaving equipment.

In the passing from the first to the second quarter of 2004, an acceleration in the rhythm of production in seven activities, mainly, food and beverages (from 9.5% to 19.5%) and the manufacturing of machines and equipment (from –14.9% to 18.5%). In the general industry, the growth went from 16.0% to 18.3% and completed the fourth consecutive quarter with a positive rate.

With regards to the accrued rate for the January-June period, nine fields sustained the increase of 17.2% that was verified in the general total, with the most significant influence being contributed by electronic materials and communications equipment (37.8%) and food and beverages (14.5%). On the other had, in addition to metal products (-8.6%), the manufacturing of machines and equipment (-3.1%) also registered a negative result due to the decrease in production of air conditioning devices.

The industry in Pará increased 13.5% compared to June 2003, exceeding May’s result (6.8%). The indicators for broader periods also registered increases: 8.5% in the accrued year and 7.8% in the last twelve months.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the growth rate of 13.5% is mainly determined by the extractive industry (17.8%), whose performance was more favorable than in May (-2.1%), leveraged by the greater extraction of iron ore to serve the foreign market. Four out of five segments in the manufacturing industry also registered positive results, with food and beverages (47.1%) and cellulose and paper (30.2%) exerting the greatest positive pressure. These fields signaled, mainly, increases in the production of frozen crustaceans and toilet paper.

In quarterly bases, the industry in Pará has grown since the beginning of 2003, therefore, for six quarters.

The growth of 8.5% in the first semester of the year was a consequence of positive results in the six surveyed areas. The greatest positive impacts came from the extraction industry (9.5%), basic metallurgy (7.5%) and cellulose and paper (27.8%), that signaled, respectively, increases in the following items: aluminum ores, aluminum oxide and toilet paper.

The industry in the Northeast region registered a growth rate of 15.3% in June, compared to the same month of the previous year. The other indicators, for broader periods, were also positive: 5.7% in the accrued year and 0.9% in the last twelve accrued months.

For the fifth consecutive month, the industry in the Northeast registered favorable results in the comparison with the same month of the previous year. The expansion in ten out of eleven industrial sectors contributed towards the rate of 15.3 in June, with highlights among chemical products (19.5%), oil and alcohol refining (23.3%) and food and beverages (13.5%), and due to the increase of the processed chestnut and toasted peanut and cashew chestnut items. On the contrary, the only activity to register a decrease was basic metallurgy (-3.0%).

The industry in the Northeast demonstrated, in the first two quarters of the year, a reversal of the negative trend that was registered in the last two quarters of last year. The growth in the second quarter of this year (9.6%) intensified the recovery that was already presented in the first quarter (2.0%), and was sustained by the good performance of chemical products (of 1.7% to 11.5%) and by food and beverages (from 3.4% to 11.9%).

The industrial production in Ceará, in June, grew 12.7% in comparison to the same month of the previous year and 4.1% in the semester, while the accrued rate for the last twelve months still registered a decrease (-0.1%), but in a recovery path. It should be mentioned that food and beverages provided the greatest positive contribution in the three main industrial indicators.

The growth of 12.7% in June’s monthly indicator reflected the positive result in seven out of ten surveyed industrial activities, with the most significant being the one obtained by food and beverages (19.4%), mainly due to the increase in the production of processed cashew chestnuts and of toasted cashew peanuts and chestnuts. The good performance of footwear and leather items (30.7%) is also notable, determined mainly by the increase in the manufacturing of plastic and leather footwear; and of textile (9.8%), due to the expansion of artificial fiber mesh cloth and cotton items.

The accrued indicator for the year registered growth, in spite of there being and expansion in only three out of ten surveyed industrial sectors. The rate of 4.1% was mainly determined by the good performance of food and beverages (16.3%), again with a highlight for the production of processed cashew chestnuts and of toasted cashew peanuts and chestnuts and for footwear and leather items (15.3%), where the increase of plastic footwear is of relevance.

In the first two quarters of this year, the industry in Ceará registered a positive and ascending trend, recovering from the weak performance registered for three consecutive quarters in 2003. The result of the second quarter of this year (6.3%), greater than that of the previous period (2.0%), is mainly due to the improved performance by textiles (that passed from –8.0% to 3.8%).

In June, the industry in Pernambuco registered an expansion of 16.9% compared to the same month of the previous year, 7.4% in the accrued year and 5.0% in the last twelve months.

The industry in Pernambuco registered growth in comparison to the same month of the previous year for the fifth consecutive month, with increases in eight out of eleven surveyed sectors. The greatest positive contribution towards reaching the rate of 16.9% was observed in basic metallurgy (62.4%), mainly due to the greater production of aluminum plates and strips and carbon steel bars. It should be noted that the good performance by food and beverages (14.0%) and chemical products (10.3%) explained, respectively, by the increase of the semi-whitened rice and paints and varnished for construction items. On the negative side, the greater impacts were noted in textiles (-19.1%) and rubber and plastic (-1.6%), due to the lower production of cotton textiles; and plastic corks, lids and capsules to seal recipients, respectively.

The quarterly analysis, for the industry in Pernambuco, confirms the growth trend, initiated in the third quarter of 2003, registering a growth rate of 11.1% in the second quarter of this year. This performance was greater than that obtained in the first quarter of the year (4.3%), being explained mainly by the expansion of basic metallurgy, that passed from a growth rate of 7.2% to 40.7% and by the recovery of non-metallic minerals, that passed from a decrease of 13.6% to an expansion of 1.2%.

The industrial production of Bahia, in June, registered an expansion of 21.7% compared to the same month of the previous year, practically doubling the growth rhythm registered in May (11.3%). The other indicators were also positive: 10.0% in the accrued year and 2.4% in the last twelve accrued months.

The good performance of 21.7% in the comparison between June 2004 and June 2003 is mainly due to the strong growth of chemical products (28.%); oil and alcohol refining (25.4%). And food and beverages (20.2%), with this last one being due to the increase of the beer and tapped beer items; and gross soy oil. On the other hand, the activity of rubber and plastic (-1.6%), influenced by the decrease in production of plastic plates and sheets and in pneumatics for busses and trucks, was the only activity that registered a retraction.

The accrued indicator for the year registered growth, with positive rates in all surveyed activities, with the two first quarters of the year registering a recovery trend after the decrease that was registered in the two last quarters of last year. The growth rate of 12.7% in the second quarter intensified the growth rhythm that was registered in the first (7.3%) and is related, above all, to the dynamism of the chemical products and food and beverages sectors.

The main industrial production indicators of the state of Minas Gerais continued to register positive rates in their main comparisons during the month of June: 6.1% compared to June 2003; 2.3% in the accrued year and 1.5% in the last twelve months.

In the comparison with June of last year, the industrial production of Minas Gerais registered a growth rate of 6.1%, reaching its best result of this year. In the meantime, the analysis of this result should be considered in relative terms, since it considers the effect of the weak base of comparison. The extraction industry, that has registered decreases for four consecutive months, has once again registered an expansion (7.4%), driven by the production of iron ore and its concentrates, which benefited from the favorable moment for foreign sales, especially to Asia. In the manufacturing industry, nine industrial activities registered growth, with a highlight for automotive vehicles (35.2%), which was the most significant, both in volume and in its impact on the global rate. Another two segments that deserve to highlighted are: manufacturing of machines and equipment (24.1%); textiles (15.7%) and chemical products (10.0%), with, respectively, household appliances, cotton fabrics and insecticides.

In the comparison by quarters, it is noted that the second period (April-June) had the greatest increase in the year, registering 3.9% compared to 0.6% in the first, with the industry of Minas Gerais ending the first semester with an expansion of 2.3% compared to the same period of last year. Large part of this growth should be attributed to ten manufacturing activities. The automotive vehicle industry (16.1%) was the one that contributed with the greatest positive impact in the general calculation, followed by the manufacturing of machines and equipment (15.6%) and the manufacturing of food (3.2%).

The industrial production indicators for the state of Espírito Santo, in June, registered positive rates in the main comparisons: 9.6% compared to June 2003, 4.0% in the accrued year and 2.5% in the last twelve months.

The industrial production for the state of Espírito Santo in the month of June increased 9.6% compared to the same month of the previous year, demonstrating in this way its best performance of the year. The performance of the manufacturing industry was of 11.0% and the extraction was of 6.3%, with the weak base of comparison being the main reason for these elevated rates.

All segments in the manufacturing industry grew, with a highlight for food and beverages (37.9%), cellulose (7.0%) and basic metallurgy (5.8%). In the second quarter of this year, the industrial activity expanded 5.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, with the extraction and metallurgy industries assured the greatest strength of production in the passing of the first to the second quarter. The first passed from a decrease of 0.7% to an expansion of 6.1%, and the second from 2.3% to 7.4%.

With the result of June, the accrued production for the year advanced 4.0%, with all activities registering positive results. Food and beverages (11.2%) appeared with the greatest positive impact, followed by basic metallurgy (4.8%) and extraction industries (2.7%).

The industrial production of Rio de Janeiro continued to register an expansion (3.2%) in June compared to the same month of the previous year, with this being the fourth consecutive positive rate in the year for this type of comparison. In the indicators for broader periods, the industry of Rio de Janeiro registered negligible growth in the year (0.0%) and a decrease of 1.0% in the last twelve months. It is worth mentioning that this month, Rio de Janeiro registered rates that were greater than those of May in all comparisons: 1.7%, -0.6% and –1.2%, respectively.

In the comparison between June 2004 and June 2003, the global result of 3.2% was determined by the increase of industrial activity in most (ten) of the thirteen surveyed activities. The extraction industry, with a growth rate of 3.2%, registered its first positive result of the year, leaving the main positive influence to oil extraction. The manufacturing industry, in turn, also signaled an increase (3.3%), the fourth positive result in the year.

In quarterly bases of comparison, the increase of 0.2% in the manufacturing activity in Rio de Janeiro, in the second quarter of the year, gives continuance to the relative gain of dynamism that started in the third quarter of 2003 (-3.0%), but was interrupted with decreases (-0.8%) in the fourth quarter and (-0.2%) in the third quarter of this year. This movement, although registering negative rates, accompanied the national trend and reached, in the passing of the first to the second quarter, nine industrial areas, being of particular importance for other chemical products (from –16.5% to 6.1%), non-metallic minerals (from 0.5% to 23.3%) and automotive vehicles (from 13.0% to 31.7%).

With regards to the ending of the first semester of the year, the industry in Rio de Janeiro registered negligible growth (0.0%), with six out of thirteen surveyed activities still registering negative results. The adverse performance of the extraction industry, mainly due to the scheduled halts for the maintenance of oil extraction platforms throughout the first five months of the year, it the main negative influence in the industry’s general result. The manufacturing industry, in turn, demonstrated an expansion in production (1.4%), with basic metallurgy (8.8%) and automotive vehicles (22.4%) obtaining the main positive highlights. In contrast, other chemical products (-11.3%) is the manufacturing industry’s area that exerted the most negative influence on the global index, mainly due to the retraction in the manufacturing of oxygen.

In June, the industrial production of São Paulo expanded 17.7% compared to the same month of 2003. The other indicators registered 13.4% in growth during the second quarter of 2004, 10.6% in the accrued index and 5.0% in the accrued rate for the last twelve months.

The increase of 17.7% in the comparison with June 2003 is due to the positive performances in eighteen out of twenty sectors that comprise the industry. The main positive impacts were observed in some manufacturing sectors for durable consumer goods, with a highlight for automobiles and cellular phones, products that have been pointed out as the most important in the expansion of automotive vehicles (43.2%) and electronic material and communications equipment (84.7%). On the other hand, it is noted that the two segments in decrease were the manufacturing of pharmaceutical products (-14.6%) and beverages (-10.2), mainly pressured by the lower production of medications and soft drinks.

In the quarterly comparison, the industry of São Paulo registered an increase of 7.7% in the first quarter to 13.4% in the second, with the most significant increases, in terms of importance, being registered with automotive vehicles (from 23.9% to 38.3%) and the manufacturing of machines and equipment (from 10.7% to 24.7%).

The good result of the year’s accrued indicator (10.6%) is basically due to automotive vehicles (31.0%), machines and equipment 17.7%) and electronic material and communications equipment (32.6%), with highlights, in the second mentioned sector, of motor graders as the main items in the advance of the production of capital goods. In counterpart, the main negative highlights were of pharmaceutical products (-15.1%), publishing and printing (-2.0%) and beverages (-1.3%), due to the retraction among medications, didactic books and cachaça, among others.

In June 2004, the industrial production indexes of Paraná continued to register a positive behavior, although less intensively than those observed in the previous months. The additions were of 1.7% in the monthly, 2.7% in the second quarter, 5.6% in the accrued year and 6.4% in the last twelve months.

Out of the fourteen surveyed areas, seven demonstrated a positive performance compared to June 2003. The main positive contributions came from automotive vehicles (97.3%) and machines and equipment (34.6%), mainly due to the greater production of trucks; automobiles; and domestic refrigerators. On the other hand, with sharp decreases, oil and alcohol refining (-83.7%) and publishing and printing (-36.0%) exerted the main negative pressures.

In the quarterly comparison, a deceleration in the growth rhythm in the passing from the first (8.7%) to the second quarter (2.7%) is observed, which is mainly due to the movements registered in the oil and alcohol refining industry, that passed from –3.2% to –44.6%, and in publishing and printing, that passed from 50.2% to –14.9%.

In the end of the first semester, the industry grew 5.6%, driven by the favorable performances in ten areas. The main positive impacts came from automotive vehicles (34.0%), wood (23.4%) and food (5.7%), that had highlights among trucks and automobiles; wooden panels and compensated wood; soluble coffee and poultry meat, among other items. In the four segments that decreased production, it is worth to recognize oil and alcohol refining as the main negative contribution (-24.2%), being followed by other chemical products (-7.9%), non-metallic minerals (-8.7%) and electric machines and materials –3.8%).

In June, the main indicators for the industry of Santa Catarina were positive. Compared to June 2003, the production registered an increase of 18.2%, with this being the fifth consecutive result in this type of comparison. With this, the indicators for the broadest periods registered increases both in the accrued rate for the first semester (8.6%) as with the last twelve months (1.1%).

The comparison between June 2004 and June 2003 registered the expansion of 18.2% in the global result, reflecting the favorable behavior in ten out of eleven surveyed industrial fields. This positive index was mainly influenced by the increases observed with machines and equipment (24.9%) and food (11.7%), mainly due to the greater foreign demand for refrigerators and freezers and poultry meat and giblets, respectively. It should also be mentioned that the advances in textiles (20.2%), automotive vehicles (57.4%) and rubber and plastic (31.6%) that registered, respectively, increases in the production of bath, face and had towels; coachworks for trucks and busses and plastic parts and accessories. Non-metallic minerals (-6.4%) is the only activity that registered a negative result.

The evolution of manufacturing activity in Santa Catarina in the second quarter of 2004 (14.0%) demonstrates a significantly greater result than that of the January-March period (3.2%). The reaction registered by automotive vehicles (decrease of 28.4% in the first quarter and growth of 19.7% in the second), as well as rubber and plastic (of –0.9% to 29.7%), were important for this movement.

In the end of the first semester, the industry of Santa Catarina, with an expansion of 8.6%, in addition to registering a result that was greater than that verified for Brazil (7.7%), it maintained a growth rhythm that was above that which was registered in May (6.6%). The favorable performance of this semester reflects the positive results that were obtained by eight out of eleven analyzed industrial activities, with a highlight for machines and equipment (18.1%), driven by the greater production of refrigerators and freezers, and food (10.2%), supported by the increase of deli products. In contrast, among the three activities that registered decreases, the one with the greatest negative pressure on the general index was exerted by non-metallic minerals (-7.0%), mainly due to the decrease in the manufacturing of bricks and ceramic plates.

The industry of Rio Grande do Sul, in June, registered an increase of 14.7% compared to the same month of the previous year, a more favorable result than that of May (4.0%). The indicators for broader periods also registered growth rates: 5.6% in the accrued year and 2.0% in the last twelve accrued months.

In the comparison between June 2004 and June 2003, the increase of 14.7% resulted from the positive performances in twelve out of fourteen surveyed areas, with tobacco (55.5%), oil and alcohol refining (21.3%) and automotive vehicles (30.5%) exerting the greatest positive pressures.

In the quarterly comparison, the indexed demonstrated an acceleration in the manufacturing activity in the passing from the first (4.2%) to the second (6.9%) period. In this same comparison, seven out of fourteen surveyed areas increased their production, with highlights for tobacco, that passed from –13.0% to 24.8%, due to the increase of tobacco products; and chemical products, of –3.8% to 2.3%, driven by the production of ethylene and fertilizers.

Rio Grande do Sul’s industry, in the first semester of the year, registered a growth rate of 5.6%. For this result, eleven out of fourteen surveyed areas contributed with positive results. The most significant among these were: machines and equipment (19.7%), automotive vehicles (17.7%) and tobacco (9.9%), that registered, respectively, increases in the production of harvesting machines; sowing machines; planters; tows; semi-tows; and tobacco products. On the other hand, footwear and leather items (-6.7%) and food (-0.9%) exerted the greatest negative pressures. These industries registered decreases in the production of the following items: casual tennis shoe, leather footwear; soy pies and poultry meat.

In June, all the indicators for the industry of Goiás registered growth. In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the expansion was of 3.6%, a much lower result than in May (13.6%). The indicators for the broader periods registered increases of 4.8% in the accrued year and 2.9% in the last twelve accrued months.

In the comparison between June 2004 and June 2003, the industry of Goiás lost dynamism compared to May (13.6%) when registering an increase of 3.6%. The food and beverages sector, with the greatest weight in Goiás’s industrial complex, was the main responsible factor for this movement, when observing that, in May, the activity increased 15.9%, while the rate was of 4.7% in June. In the month’s result, this was the sector that exerted the greatest positive influence in the general result, registering increases in the production of tomato sauces and bovine meat. The second greatest contribution was made by non-metallic minerals (18.7%), which registered an increase in the production of cement, panels, bricks and cement fiber tiles. On the other hand, the only negative contribution came from chemical products (-5.9%), due to the decrease in the production of medications and fertilizers of animal origin.

In the passing from the first to the second quarter of this year, the industry of Goiás registered a slight improvement in the growth rhythm, passing from an increase of 4.3 to 5.3%. The highlight, in the passing between the two periods, was the industry of non-metallic minerals, that passed from –0.9% to 17.9%, due to the greater production of cement and panels, bricks and cement fiber tiles. Contrary to most locations, the manufacturing activity in this state has been growing since the first quarter of 2003. Therefore, the base of comparison was already characterized as a growth phase.

The industry of Goiás ended the first semester with an expansion of 4.8%, with three out of five of the surveyed segments registering positive performances and with food and beverages (6.0%) and chemical products (16.9%) being responsible for the main positive pressures. These areas, respectively, registered increases in the production of the following items: prepared tomato sauces, soy pies and bagasses and fertilizers of animal origin. In counterpart, the main negative impact was caused by the extractive industry (-10.0%), due to the decrease in the production of asbestos fibers.