In January 2004, industrial employment grew 0.2% over the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series. In December 2003 the index recorded a fall of 0.6%. Although the January figure does not reverse the downward trend of the quarterly moving average index, showing a loss of 0.1% between the quarter closed in December and the one closed in January. Other indicators also decreased: -1.7% confronted with January 2003 and -0.7% in the last twelve months.

The real payroll recovered (7.7%) in the comparison with January 2003. The number of hours paid was stable in relation to December 2003, also in the seasonally adjusted series. In comparison with January 2003, the hours paid dropped down 1.8%.

In the comparison January 2004/ January 2003, 11 out of the 14 surveyed places dropped on industrial employment. The biggest negative contribution came, once again, from São Paulo (-2.2%) and as a consequence, from the Southeast Region (-1.7%). São Paulo figures were influenced by the reduction of job posts inwearing apparel(-26.1%) and in paper and press (-14%). In the Southeast Region, employment on wearing apparel dropped 20.2%, and on paper and press, 11.2%.

Rio de Grande do Sul (-5.8%) also exerted a negative pressure on the overall index, mainly due to the employment reduction on footwear and leather (-10.8%). Only in Minas Gerais (2.0%), both the North and Central-West regions (1.4%) and Paraná (0.4%) had positive figures for industrial employment, all based on food products and beverages, a sector that reached growth of 14.1%, 2.5% and 9.9%, in those areas.

As to the sectors, still comparing January 2004/ January 2003, it is noticed a drop in the employment in 11 out of the 18 surveyed sectors in Brazil. The biggest negative pressure came from wearing apparel(-13.9%), followed by paper and press (-7.7%), textiles (-5.8%) and non-metalic minerals (-5.3%). On a positive way, it is highlighted the influence of hiring in food products and beverages (2.6%).

The cumulative index of the last twelve months (-0.7%) showed a steeper downward trend than December's (-0.5%) and November's (-0.4). São Paulo (-1.1%) kept as the highlight, sharing with Rio de Janeiro (-4.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-2.0%) the main negative impacts on employment fall. The positive highlights came from the North and Central-West (3.5%), and Paraná (2.2%) areas, mainly influenced by hiring in the food products and beverage  sector. As to the sectors, dismissals overcame hiring in 10 business sectors, highlighted by the negative influence coming from wearing apparel (-6.0%), other products from the manufacturing industry (-7.4%), non-metalic minerals (-5.7%) and textiles (-4.5%). The highlights for most of the positive contributions were the food products and beverages  (2.6%) and machinery and equipment(5.6%) industries.

To sum up, even with the positive rate on a comparison month against month, it is possible to see that the employment showed a downward trend expressed in the quarterly moving average index. This figure was confirmed by comparing with 2003, when the rates stood negative.

Payroll reveals a recovery in relation to January 2003

The real payroll indicator showed a significant increase in January 2004. In the comparison January 2004/2003, the increase was of 7.7% for the industry total, with a widespread profile, reaching most of the segments and areas surveyed.

Two factors contributed for this increase; one, the payment of benefits traditionally paid in December, was made in January; second, the inflation in January 2004 was lower than that of January 2003.

Among the 18 sectors surveyed, 13 showed growth in the comparison January 2004/ January 2003, being the main impacts on machinery and equipment (22.6%) and food products and beverages (8.6%). Analyzing by area, all places had expansion on real payroll. São Paulo (7.6%) and Minas Gerais (8.1%) stood out as main positive influences. In the South Region (7.3%), the most expressive contributions came from Paraná (9.8%) and Santa Catarina (9.6%). In São Paulo, machinery and equipment (35.2%), chemicals (10.6%) and  manufacturing of means of transportation (5.4%), were the three segments with most influence on rate expansion of the payroll. In Minas Gerais, the spot were on manufacturing of means of transportation (27.3%), basic metals (6.8%) and food products and beverages (21.3%).

The cumulative index in the last 12 months decreased for the real payroll (-3.1%), though less intense than the one showed in December 2003 (-4.3%). The quarterly moving average index grew 3.3% between the quarter closed in December 2003 and the one closed in January 2004. Thus, the stability trend until last December has been changed.

The decrease of 1.8% in the comparison January 2004/ January 2003 reflected the negative behavior in 11 out of the 14 places and nine out of the 18 surveyed segments. Among sectors, the most expressive reduction were on wearing apparel (-12.4%), textiles (-7.8%) and paper and press (-6.6%). Basic metals (9.6%) and food products and beverages (1.8%) were the biggest positive contributions.

Among surveyed places the ones that had most negative influences on national result were: São Paulo (-2.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (-6.0%), Rio de Janeiro (-4.3%) and the Northeast (-1.6%). On the other hand, the biggest positive influence was Minas Gerais (2.6%). As to São Paulo's industry, the segments of wearing apparel (-26.7%), paper and press (-12.3%) and machinery and electronic equipment (-4.6%) had the main negative impacts. In the Rio Grande do Sul's industry, the negative highlights were on footwear and leather (-11.6%), manufacturing of other products on transformation industry (-15.7%) and rubber and plastic (-8.3%). As to Rio de Janeiro and the Northeast, the main negative pressure on the number of hours paid was on wearing apparel, with retractions of -16.5% and -15.2%, respectively.

 At last, the decline of 1.0% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months was slightly higher than that of December (-0.8%). As to the sectors, the negative highlights were on wearing apparel (-6.2%) and manufacturing of other products on transformation industry (-8.8%). The places that most contributed with the overall industry were São Paulo (-1.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (-4.7%).

The number of hours paid was stable in relation to December, and decreased on other indicators.

In January, the number of hours paid to industrial workers was stable (0.0%) in relation to December, without the seasonal effect. Comparing with the same month on the previous year, there was a decrease of 1.8% and on cumulative index in the last twelve months, a decrease of 1.0%. The average of working hours in January decreased both in the monthly (-0.1%) and in the cumulative index in the past twelve months (-0.3%).

Accordingly to the quarterly moving average index, the working hours decreased 0.2% between the quarter closed in December and the one closed in January confirming the decreasing trend that began in November.