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In March, IBGE expects harvest to be 3.6% bigger than in 2014

April 10, 2015 04h36 PM | Last Updated: January 22, 2018 03h37 PM


Estimate in MARCH 2015
199.7 million metric tons
Change March 2015/February 2015
0.1% (+139.2 Thousand metric tons)
Change harvest 2015/harvest 2014
3.6% (+6.9 million metric tons)


The third estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2015 added up to 199.7 million metric tons, 3.6% higher than that obtained in 2014 (192.8 million metric tons). The March forecast in relation to February rose 139.2 thousand metric tons (+0.1%). The estimated area to be harvested (57.3 million hectares) was 1.7% bigger than the harvested area in 2014 (56.3 million hectares) and 0.2% bigger when compared with that in February (more 121.4 thousand hectares). Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 91.6% of the production estimate and accounted for 85.5% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the area for soybeans increased 4.3%, the area for rice reduced 3.2% and the area for corn reduced 0.4%. The production increased 0.9% for rice and 9.7% for soybeans, and decreased 3.7% for corn.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed on page


Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions
Participation in the production
March 2015

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Participation in the production
March 2015

In regional terms, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West, 80.6 million metric tons; South, 76.1 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.4 million metric tons; Northeast, 18.8 million metric tons and North, 5.9 million metric tons. The following increases were registered compared with the 2014 harvest: North (6.8%), Northeast (20.3%), Southeast (2.5%) and South (7.6%). The Central-West Region recorded a decrease of 2.9% in relation to the production in the previous year. In the 2015 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 23.6%, followed by Paraná (18.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.3%). These states together accounted for 58.4% of the national forecast.

March 2015 estimate in relation to the production in 2014

Among 26 major producers, 12 posted a positive percentage variation for the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (0.7%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (3.9%), paddy rice (0.9%), oat grain (23.6%), barley grain (23.1%), bean seed - 1st crop (7.0%), bean seed - 2nd crop (4.9%), castor beans (138.1%), cassava (5.1%), corn grain - 1st crop (1.1%), soybean grain (9.7%) and wheat grain (24.9%). Fourteen products registered a negative variation: upland cottonseed (10.5%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.8%), potatoes - 2nd crop (2.4%), potatoes - 3rd crop (19.4%), cacao nuts (7.4%), coffee beans (arabica) (1.9%), coffee beans (canephora) (15.2%), sugarcane (2.5%), onions (7.2%), bean seed - 3rd crop (11.4%), oranges (7.5%), corn grain - 2nd crop (6,7%), sorghum grain (10.2%) and triticale grain (10,5%).

Soybeans posted the most significant increase in production in absolute numbers (8,343,121 metric tons), surpassing the 2014 harvest by 2.0 million metric tons.  Also in absolute numbers, the highest negative changes in this annual comparison were sugarcane (-16,953,509 t) and corn (-2,879,451 t).

March 2015 estimate in relation to February 2015

In the production estimate for March against February, the following variations stood out: beans - 2nd crop (+3.1%), wheat (+2.6%), corn - 2nd crop (+0.8%), corn - 1st crop (+0.2%), soybeans
(-0.1%), coffea arabica (-0.6%), rice (-1.7%), beans - 1st crop (-2.4%), upland cotton
(-3.0%), sorghum (-4.2%) and beans - 3rd crop (-8.1%).

PADDY RICE - The March estimate for rice predicted an area to be harvested of 2,274,339 hectares, an expected production of 12,261,607 metric tons and an expected average yield of 5,391 kg/ha, respectively 1.4%, 1.7% and 0.3% lower than the data in February. The South Region was responsible for 78.7% of the overall production. The crops were being harvested and the weather was helping. The price of the 50-kg sack in Rio Grande do Sul was about R$ 36.00 (EMATER/RS) and, in Paraná, the 60-kg sack of irrigated rice was being traded by R$ 48.00-R$ 50.00 and the upland rice, by R$ 51.00-R$ 52.00 (GCEA/PR). The product being harvested was of good quality up to this date.

COFFEE GRAIN - ARABICA - The March estimated production for 2015 was 1,880,548 metric tons, pointing to a drop of 0.6% in relation to February, as a result of the reduction of 0.8% of the expected average yield. As the major producer and responsible for 71.0% of the overall production, Minas Gerais expected an yield of 1,354 kg/ha, a drop of 1.0% over the previous month. Although rainfall returned in the main producing areas in 2015, the drought and high temperatures of 2014 still influenced the production surveys.

TOTAL BEAN SEED - The estimated planted area with beans decreased 0.3% in March 2015 in relation to that in February. The production estimate changed negatively (-1.0%), following the reduction of 0.7% in the area to be harvested and of 0.2% in the average yield. In this survey, the major producers were Paraná (23.1%), Minas Gerais (16.1%) and Bahia (9.9%).

CORN GRAIN - The total production of corn was estimated at 75.9 million metric tons, a rise of 0.6% over the previous month. The planted area also changed positively by 0.7%, reaching 15.2 million hectares. 30.9 million metric tons of corn - 1st crop were expected to be produced in 2015, a rise of 0.2% over February. Currently the major producer of corn - 1st crop, Rio Grande do Sul continued with regular harvests. Concerning corn - 2nd crop, the estimated production was of 44.9 million metric tons, an increase of 0.8% over February. The estimated planted area also increased, reaching 9.0 million hectares (more 1.1%).

SOYBEAN GRAIN - The national production of soybeans was estimated at 94.8 million metric tons in March, pointing to a slight retraction of 0.1% over the previous month. The planted area changed positively by 0.5%, reaching 31.6 million hectares. The average yield changed negatively by 0.5% due to unfavorable weather conditions, especially in the Central-West Region. The new estimated average yield was 3,006 kg/hectares. Mato Grosso accounted for 29.2% of the estimated production of this oilseed. A production of 27.6 million metric tons was expected in this state, a rise of 1.0% in relation to the previous month.

WHEAT GRAIN - The current estimate for the 2015 harvest, still to be planted, was of 7,712,795 metric tons, in an area to be harvested of 2,793,025 hectares and with an expected average yield of 2,761 kg/ha, respectively 2.6%, 0.1% and 2.5% higher when compared with the data from the previous month. Paraná estimated an area of 1,350,070 hectares, 0.5% smaller when compared with the previous month. The production forecast was 4,045,343 metric tons and the average yield, 2,996 kg/ha, respectively 4.5% and 5.0% higher. As an initial indicator, this forecast could be changed, since the planting time in Paraná starts in April and extends until July.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.