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In February, retail sales change -0.1%

April 14, 2015 04h48 PM | Last Updated: January 22, 2018 03h36 PM

 

Period Retail Trade Extended Retail Trade
Volume of sales Nominal revenue Volume of sales Nominal revenue
February/January
-0.1
0.7
-1.1
-0.2
Quarterly moving average
-0.7
-0.2
-1.9
-1.3
February 2015 / February 2014
-3.1
3.6
-10.3
-4.2
Cumulative 2015
-1.2
5,0
-7.5
-1.7
Cumulative in 12 months
0.9
7.2
-3.8
1.9

In February, the retail trade of the country recorded a change of –0.1% for the volume of sales and of 0.7% for the nominal revenue, both rates in relation to the previous month (seasonally adjusted). For the volume of sales, such result became negative again, after growth of 0.8% in January. On the other hand, for the nominal revenue, it is the second consecutive month of growth. As to the change of the moving average, for the volume of sales, the change was of -0.7%, whereas the revenue presented a rate of -0.2%. In the other comparisons, obtained from the unadjusted original series, the national retail recorded, as to the volume of sales, changes of -3.1% against February of 2014, -1.2% in the quarterly cumulative index for the two-month period and of 0.9% or the cumulative index over the last 12 months. For the same indicators, the nominal revenue of sales recorded change rates of 3.6%, 5.0% and 7.2%, respectively. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed atwww.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/comercio/pmc/.

Among the ten activities, six presented positive changes

In the results of February over the previous month, six of the ten surveyed activities registered positive results for the volume of sales, seasonally adjusted.  The rates were: 1.8% in Other articles of personal and household use; 1.0% in Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery; 0.8% in Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics; -0.2% in Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco; -0.7% for Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear and Construction material; -1.3% for Furniture and household appliances and Office, computer and communication equipment; -3.5% in Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and accessories; and -5.3% for Fuels and lubricants.

But in the comparison between February 2015 and February 2014 (unadjusted series), five of the eight activities of retail obtained negative results in the volume of sales. In the ranking of contribution to the negative global rate, the results were: -10.4% for Furniture and household appliances; -10.4% for Fuels and lubricants; -1.8% for Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco; -7.3% for Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear; and -5.3% for Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery. The activities exerting positive impact on the composition of the result were: Other articles of personal and household use (3.0%); Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (3.2%); and Office, computer and communication equipment and material, with 8.4%.



TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF THE VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND OF THE EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
ACCORDING TO ACTIVITY GROUPS: PMC - February 2015
ACTIVITY MONTH/PREVIOUS MONTH(*) MONTH/SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO CUMULATIVE
Change rate Change rate Change Rate
DEC
JAN
FEB
DEC
JAN
FEV
IN THE YEAR
12 MONTHS
RETAIL TRADE (**)
-2.4
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.5
-3.1
-1.2
0.9
1 - Fuels and lubricants
-0.8
-1.0
-5.3
2.0
-0.2
-10.4
-5.2
0.2
2 - Hyper, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.9
0.2
-1.8
-0.8
0.3
2.1 - Super e hypermarkts
-0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.8
0.3
-1.4
-0.6
0.3
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear
-7.1
1.4
-0.7
-3.4
-0.7
-7.3
-3.8
-2.2
4 - Furniture and household appliances
-9.3
1.9
-1.3
-3.4
-3.4
-10.4
-6.5
-1.6
4.1 - Furniture
-
-
-
-4.9
-11.5
-11.0
-11.2
-2.7
4.2 - Household appliances
-
-
-
-2.8
0.3
-10.1
-4.3
-1.0
5 - Pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic articles, cosmetics and toletries
-1.1
1.5
0.8
8.0
5.0
3.2
4.1
7.5
6 - Office, computer and communication mat. and equip.
-7.9
13.5
-1.3
7.2
21.0
8.4
14.5
0.3
7 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationary
-9.1
-0.3
1.0
-9.3
-9.9
-5.3
-7.9
-9,1
8 - Other articles of presonal and household use
-3.5
-0.2
1.8
7.2
4.5
3.0
3.8
6.5
EXTENTED RETAIL TRADE(***)
-4.3
-0.2
-1.1
-2.2
-4.9
-10.3
-7.5
-3.8
9 - Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces
-9.7
-1.3
-3.5
-8.6
-16.3
-23.7
-19.8
-12.8
10- Construction Material
1.3
-1.8
-0.7
1.0
-2.8
-13.0
-7.8
-2.8
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(*) Seasonally adjusted series (**) The retail trade indicator comprises activities from 1 to 8.
(***) The extended retail trade indicator comprises activities from 1 to 10.

Furniture and household appliances, with a change of -10.4% in the volume of sales in relation to February last year, the activity registered the highest negative impact in the formation of the retail rate.  In the cumulative rate of the year and of the last 12 months, the growth rates were: -6.5% and
-1.6%, respectively. Such a behavior can be attributed to the gradual withdrawals of incentives (reduction of the IPI - Tax on Industrialized Products) destined to white goods coupled with the lower pace of credit.

Fuels and lubricants, with a change of -10.4% in the volume of sales in relation to February 2014, they accounted for the second biggest negative contribution to the overall retail rate. The cumulative growth rate in the two months, -5.2% and of the last 12 months, 0.2%, reflects the behavior of fuel price increases above the average, with 10.2% of change in 12 months, against 7.7% of the overall index, according to IPCA. 

Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco, with a change of -1.8% in the volume of sales in February against the same month a year ago, they were responsible for the third greatest negative contribution to the formation of the Retail Trade. The above-average increase in the prices of food at home (8.6% of change in the cumulative index over the 12 months against 7.7% of the overall index, according to IPCA), coupled to the lower purchasing power of the population, influenced this performance.

Fabric, wearing apparel and footwear were responsible for the fourth highest negative contribution in the formation of the overall index of the retail trade. They recorded a change rate of -7.3% over the same month a year ago, of -3.8% (cumulative in the year) and of -2.2% (for the last 12 months). Even with wearing apparel prices below the overall inflation index (changes, respectively of 2.9% and 7.7% in the cumulative rate over the last 12 months, up to February, according to IPCA), this activity has been showing a negative behavior and below the overall retail average.

Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery- stationary registered the fifth negative contribution to the overall result of the retail trade, recording a change in the volume of sales of -5.3% over February 2014, and a cumulative rate of -7.9% in the two months and of -9.1% in the last 12. The downward trend of this activity has been influenced, as far as newspapers and magazines are concerned, by a certain replacement of print products by electronic ones.

Other articles of personal and household use, encompassing department stores, jewelry shops and sporting goods and toys stores, were responsible for the greatest positive influence on the formation of the retail rate, with a change of 3.0% in the volume of sales in relation to February 2014. The cumulative change for the first two months of the year was 3.8%, and, for the last 12 months, 6.5%. This positive result, in a context of downturn of credit and wage bill growth, is influenced by the low unit value of most of the products commercialized in this activity and that present a great volume of sales.   

Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, with the second positive contribution to the overall retail rate, registered growth of 3.2% in the February 2015/February 2014 comparison, and cumulative rates in the year and in the last 12 months of 4.1% and 7.5%, respectively. The favorable performance of this sector for this activity can be attributable, especially, to the nature of its products (which are essential) and to the price changes of medicines below the Overall Index.

Office, computer and communication equipment and material this month, with an increase of 8.4% in the volume of sales in comparison to February 2014, recorded the third highest positive contribution to the formation of the global retail rate. The cumulative results, change of 14.5% in the year and of 0.3% in the last 12 months, are attributable to the behavior of the prices of the main product in the activity.

 

Extended retail changed 1.1% in February

The Extended Retail Trade, comprising the retail trade plus the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material, recorded a change in relation to the previous month (with seasonal adjustment), of -1.1% for the volume of sales - third consecutive negative result-, and of -0.2 for the nominal revenue of sales, which is again negative.  In relation to the same month a year ago, the rate was -10.3% for the  volume of sales and of
-4.2% for the nominal revenue of sales. Concerning the cumulative rates, the changes were of -7.5% in the year and of -3.8% in the last 12 months, for the volume of sales, and of -1.7% and 1.9% for the nominal revenue, respectively. This behavior is due to the negative performance of Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, whose interannual result was of
-23.7%, cumulative over the year, of -19.8% and over 12 months, of -12.8%. The reduction of sales in the segment was influenced by, among other factors, the gradual withdrawal of incentives via IPI reduction, the lower pace of credit and the drop in the families' earnings, due to the deceleration of the real growth of wage bills. It is also worth mentioning that this year's Carnival was in February, which meant less workdays in relation to last year.

The segment Construction material presented change, in the volume of sales, of -13.0% in the comparison with February 2014, of -7.8% in the cumulative result over the two months and of -2.8 in the last 12 months. This result below average reflects the expectations towards the macroeconomic situation, related to the lesser number of real state launches, residential and commercial ones, as well as to the lesser number of workdays in February.



TABLE 3
BRAZIL - COMPOSITIONOF TEH MONTHLY RETAIL RATE, BY ACTIVITIES: PMC - February 2015 (Indicator of the volume of sales)
Activities COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
Change rate(%) Absolute composition of the rate(p.p.) Change rate(%) Absolute composition of the rate(p.p.)
      Overall Rate
-3.1
-3.1
-10.3
-10.3
1 - Fuels and lubricants
-10.4
-1.1
-10.4
-0.7
2 - Hyper, supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco
-1.8
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6
3 - Fabric, apparel and footwear
-7.3
-0.5
-7.3
-0.3
4 - Furniture and household appliances
-10.4
-1.3
-10.4
-0.8
5 - Pharmaceuticals, medical, orthopedic articles, cosmetics and toletries
3.2
0.2
3.2
0.1
6 - Office, computer and communication mat. and equip.
8.4
0.1
8.4
0.1
7 - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationary
-5.3
-0.1
-5.3
0.0
8 - Other articles of personal and household use
3.0
0.3
3.0
0.2
9 - Vehicles and motorcycles, parts and peaces
-
-
-23.7
-7.1
10- Construction Material
-
-
-13.0
-1.2
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of the sectoral results in the formation of the overall rate.

In the comparison with February of 2014, results were negative in 20 states

Of the 27 Federation Units, 20 recorded negative results in the volume of sales, in the comparison between February 2015 and February 2014. The highlights were: Goiás, with -10.6%; Mato Grosso, with -8.9%; and the Federal Districtand Maranhão, with -8.7%. As to the highest negative contributions to the retail trade rate, the highlights were: São Paulo (-2.1%); Rio Grande do Sul (-7.3%); Minas Gerais (-5.2%); and Bahia (-7.0%).

For the volume of sales, in the comparison between February 2015 and the previous month (seasonally adjusted), the retail results were negative for 19 states. The highlights were: Roraima
(-8.0%); Amapá (-6.7%); Goiás (-2.5%); and Ceará (-2.4%). The major positive rates occurred in Sergipe (3.3%) andTocantins (2.5%).

In relation to the Extended Retail Trade, twenty-six states registered negative results, in terms of volume of sales, in the comparison with the same period of the previous year. The highlights were: Espírito Santo (-13.7%), Paraíba (-13.4%); Rio Grande do Sul (-13.2%); Federal District (-13.1%); and Goiás, with -12.7%. The only rate with a positive performance in the volume of sales occurred in Roraima (1.0%). In terms of negative impact on the sector’s overall result, the highlights were São Paulo (-11.7%); Rio Grande do Sul (-13.2%); Minas Gerais (-9.6%); e Rio de Janeiro, with -7.1%.