In December 2014, the national industrial output posted decrease (-2.8%) against the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, increasing the pace of decline against last November's result (-1.1%). In the seasonal adjusted series, in the comparison with same month a year ago, the industry overall contracted (-2.7%) in December 2014 - the tenth consecutive negative rate in this kind of comparison. Thus, the indexes of the industrial sector were also negative both for the closing of the fourth quarter of 2014 (-4.1%) and for the cumulative index of the year (-3.9%), in the comparisons against the same periods in the previous years. In the cumulative index for the year 2014, the industrial activity fell (-3.2%) when compared the same period a year ago, after registering decrease (-2.3%) in 2012 and growth of 2.1% in 2013. The cumulative index over 12 months decreased (-3.2%) and kept the downward trend initiated last March (2.0%).

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/indicadores/industria/2014/pimpfbr/.

Indicators of Industrial Output by Major Economic Categories
Brazil - December 2014

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally Adjusted Series

Negative results in 17 out of 24 investigated segments in December

The reduction of the industrial activity between November and December (-2.8%) showed negative results in the four major economic categories and in 17 of the 24 segments surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative influences were registered by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-5.8%), machinery and equipment (-8.2%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-2.5%). The first sector eliminated the 0.4% increase seen in the previous month; the second one recorded the fourth consecutive month of production fall and accumulated -10.5% in the period; and the last sector increased the drop recorded last November (-1.3%). Other important negative contributions to the industry overall came from the activities of textiles (-12.0%), mixed products (-16.3% - offsetting the 17.2% advance of the previous month), electrical machinery and apparatus (-4.6%), basic metals (-2.1%), rubber and plastic (-2.8%), fabricated metal products (-3.0%) and non-metallic mineral products (-1.7%). Among the five sectors which enhanced production this month, the highlights are wearing apparel and accessories (8.7%), toiletries, soaps, detergents and cleaning products (2.3%), beverages (2.8%) and mining and quarrying industries (0.5%).

Among the major economic categories, capital goods, decreased (-23.0%) and posted the sharpest drop in December 2014. This was the strongest decrease since January 2012 (-23.1%) and the second consecutive in this kind of comparison, accumulating in this period -23.3%. The segments of durable consumer goods (-2.2%), of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.7%) and of intermediate goods (-0.8%) also registered negative rates this month. The first two segments signaled three consecutive months of production drops and accumulated in this period, respectively, -6.8% and -4.3%; the last segment accumulated an index of -3.0% between September and December.

Quarterly moving average drops (-1.2%)

In the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall had a reduction (-1.2%) in the quarter ended in December against the previous month, increasing the pace of decline seen in November (-0.5%), when it interrupted two consecutive months of slightly positive rates: September (0.2%) and October (0.1%). Among the major economic categories, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, capital goods (-7.7%) recorded the sharpest drop in December and interrupted the upward trend started in August 2014. The segments of durable consumer goods (-2.3%), of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.4%) and of intermediate goods (-0.4%) also registered negative rates this month. The former offset three months of consecutive positive results, accumulating an expansion of 12.6%; the second one intensified the negative rates seen in the months of October (-0.3%) and November (-0.5%); and the latter kept the predominantly negative behavior seen since May 2014.

Industrial output drops (-2.7%) in comparison with December of 2013

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector fell (-2.7%) in December 2014, with negative results in the four major economic categories and in 18 of the 26 segments. It is worth mentioning that December 2014 (22 days) had one more workday than the same month in the prior year (21). Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-11.5%), food products (-6.1%), basic metals (-11.3%) and computer, electronic and optical products (-22.6%) exerted the highest negative influences in the formation industry average rate. Other important negative contributions to the national overall came from machinery and equipment (-7.4%), textiles (-14.0%), fabricated metal products (-5.8%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-5.3%), non-metallic mineral products (-2.6%), other chemicals (-1.7%), rubber and plastic (-2.8%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-0.7%). On the other hand, among the eight activities which increased the output, the main impact was seen in mining and quarrying (9.0%).

Comparing with the same month a year ago, capital goods (-11.9%) and durable consumer goods, (-9.7%) recorded, in August 2014, the sharpest drops among the major economic categories. The sectors of intermediate goods (-1.5%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-1.3%) also marked negative rates this month, but less intense than the national average (-2.7%).

The segment of capital goods posted decrease (-11.9%) in December 2014, the tenth negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and sharper than the one seen in the previous month (-11.0%). In the formation of the index this month, the segment was influenced by the drop seen in the majority of its groups, with a highlight to the reduction of capital goods for transportation equipment (-17.6%). The other negative rates were registered for agricultural capital goods (-24.7%), capital goods for construction (-35.9%) and for electricity (-6.8%), whereas the groups of capital goods for industrial purposes (1.7%) and for miscellaneous use (0.1%) recorded the positive results of December 2014.

The segment of durable consumer goods, which fell (-9.7%) in December 2014, also marked the tenth negative rate in a row in the monthly index, but with a less intense drop than the one seen in November (-11.4%). This month, the segment was particularly influenced by the lower manufacture of cars (-7.7%) and brown goods (-47.2%). Other important negative impacts came from furniture (-4.0%) and other house appliances (-3.3%). On the other hand, the main positive influences were seen in motorcycles (7.8%) and in white goods (9.8%).

The drop in the output of intermediate goods (-1.5%) in December 2014 was the tenth consecutive negative rate in the comparison with same month a year ago, but with a lower intensity than the one seen last November (-6.0%). The result is attributable mostly to items related to the activities of food products (-13.0%), basic metals (-11.3%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-8.4%), fabricated metal products (-8.6%), textiles (-13.7%), other chemicals (-2.0%), rubber and plastic (-3.3%) and non-metallic mineral products (-2.7%), whereas the positive pressures were registered by mining and quarrying (9.0%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.3%), pulp, paper and paper products (2.2%) and machinery and equipment (0.2%). It is worth mentioning the results seen in the groups of input for civil construction (-5.7%), which recorded the tenth consecutive drop in this kind of comparison and of packaging (0.5%), which is beginning to grow again after falling in October (-3.5%) and November (-1.6%).

Over the same month a year ago, the segment of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, which shrank (-1.3%), also showed a negative result in December 2014, after recording -0.2% in October and -3.7% in November. The performance this month was mostly due to the falls in the groups of fuels (-9.9%), food products and beverages for domestic consumption (-2,0%). On the other hand, the positive indexes were registered by the subsectors of non-durable (2.9%) and durable consumer goods (1.7%).

Industrial output drops (-4.1%) in the fourth quarter of 2014

In quarterly bases, the industrial sector, which decreased (-4.1%) in the fourth quarter of 2014, marked the third negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and had a sharper drop than the one seen in the period from July to September (-3.6%), both comparisons against the same periods a year ago. Among the major economic categories, semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from -0.1% to -1.9%) and intermediate goods (from -2.8% to -4.3%) posted the main losses between the two periods, but remained in the fourth quarter of 2014 with the least intense negative results. The sector of capital goods (from -11.5% to -11.8%) recorded a slight rise in the intensity of drop between the two periods, whereas the segment of durable consumer goods, moving from -11.2% in the third quarter of 2014 to -8.9% in the following quarter, posted the only reduction in the pace of decline. These two last segments continued in the last quarter of the year with the highest drops in this kind of comparison.

In the cumulative index of 2014, industrial output drops (-3.2%)

In the cumulative index for the twelve months of 2014, over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector posted decrease (-3.2%), with widespread fall, reaching the four major economic categories, 20 of the 26 activities, 60 of the 79 groups and 63.9% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative impact was seen in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-16.8%). Other relevant negative contributions to the national overall came from basic metals (-7.4%), fabricated metal products (-9.8%), machinery and equipment (-5.9%), other chemicals (-3.6%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-7.2%), food products (-1.4%) and rubber and plastic (-4.0%). On the other hand, among the six activities which increased the output, the main influences were seen in mining and quarrying industries (5.7%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.4%).

Among the major economic categories, the behavior of the results for the cumulative index in the twelve months of 2014 recorded a lower dynamism for capital goods (-9.6%) and durable consumer goods (-9.2%), pushed especially by the reduction in the manufacture of capital goods for transportation equipment (-16.6%), in the first group, and of cars (-14.6%), in the second one. The segments of intermediate goods, (-2.7%) and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) also registered negative results in the cumulative index of the year, but both with a lower intensity than the national average (-3.2%).