In the seasonally adjusted series, the industrial output advanced 2.0% in January 2015 against the immediately previous month, after registering losses of 1.1% in November and of 3.2% in December. Nevertheless, the industry recovered only part of the cumulative loss of 4.3% in the November-December 2014 period and is still 8.9% below the record level reached in June 2013. Compared with the same month of the previous year in the series not seasonally adjusted, the overall industry registered a fall of 5.2% in January 2015, the eleventh negative rate in a row in this type of comparison. By declining 3.5% in January 2015, the annualized rate - cumulative indicator in the last 12 months - maintained the downward trend started last March (2.0%) and posted the highest negative figure since January 2010 (-4.8%). The complete publication can be accessed on link https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/2014/pimpfbr/default.shtm.

Indicators of Industrial Production by Major Economic Categories - Brazil - January 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted Series

Compared with December, 13 out of 24 sectors increases the production

The expansion of 2.0% in the industrial activity between December 2014 and January 2015 showed positive figures in two out of the four major economic categories and in 13 out of the 24 sectors surveyed. By advancing 3.9%, the sector of food products registered the main positive impact, eliminating part of the cumulative loss of 4.5% between November and December. Other important positive contributions to the overall industry came from the activities of machinery and equipment (7.6%), basic metals (5.4%), mining and quarrying industries (2.1%) and electrical machinery and apparatus (9.0%). Considering the January´s figures, the first activity halted four consecutive months of decreasing production, when it recorded a cumulative loss of 12.0%; the second recovered part of the reduction of 6.0% posted between October and December last year; the third registered the second consecutive month of increasing production, recording a cumulative expansion of 3.0%; and the last activity offset part of the decline of 9.8% posted between September and December 2014. Among 11 sectors that reduced the production in January, the most important performances were recorded by coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-5.8%), toiletries, soaps, detergents and cleaning products (-4.8%) and manufacturing of wearing apparel and accessories (-5.8%). Except for the first sector, which posted a negative rate for the third month in a row and registered a loss of 9.7% in this period, the other activities recorded positive figures last December: 1.9% and 7.7%, respectively.

By advancing 9.1% over the immediately previous month, capital goods posted the sharpest expansion in January 2015, mainly influenced by the increased production of trucks after the collective vacations in a number of producing units in December. This was the most intense growth since July 2014 (14.7%) and recovered part of the cumulative reduction of 13.4% between October and December. The segment of intermediate goods (0.7%) also reported a positive rate in January and interrupted the predominantly negative behavior registered since September 2014, when it recorded a cumulative loss of 2.6%. The sectors producing durable consumer goods (-1.4%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.3%) recorded negative figures in January 2015, both of them posting the fourth consecutive month of falling production and registering a cumulative reduction of 8.2% and 4.3%, respectively.

Quarterly moving average falls 0.8%

Still concerning the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index declined 0.8% in the quarter ended in January 2015 over the previous month, after also dropping in November (-0.5%) and in December (-1.4%). Among the major economic categories, still in relation to the movement of this index on the margin, durable consumer goods (-2.1%) posted the sharpest reduction in January and virtually maintained the falling pace registered in the previous month (-2.3%). The segments of capital goods (-1.3%), semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.1%) and intermediate goods (-0.1%) also recorded negative rates in January. The first two segments maintained the downward trend started in September 2014 and the last segment maintained the predominantly negative behavior seen since December 2013.

Industry declines 5.2% against January 2014

The industry dropped 5.2% in January 2015 compared with January 2014, pointing to a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching the four major economic categories, 20 out of the 26 sectors, 60 out of the 79 groups and 65.6% of the 805 products surveyed. January 2015 (21 days) had one less business day than the same month in the previous year (22). Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-18.2%) exerted the highest negative influence, pressed by the reduced manufacturing of about 81% of the products surveyed in this sector, especially cars, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, bodies for trucks, trailers and semi-trailers and car pieces. Other relevant negative contributions came from coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.1%), computer, electronic and optical products (-23.2%), machinery and equipment (-10.9%), other chemicals (-7.1%), food products (-2.7%), fabricated metal products (-10.2%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-14.5%), wearing apparel and accessories (-14.3%) and basic metals (-4.0%). Among the six activities that increased the production over January 2014, the main impact was reported by mining and quarrying industries (10.4%), leveraged by the advances in pelletized iron ore and in crude petroleum oil.

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, capital goods (-16.4%) and durable consumer goods (-13.9%) registered the steepest declines among the major economic categories in January 2015. The sectors producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-5.3%), which dropped slightly less than the national average (-5.2%), and intermediate goods (-2.4%) also registered negative figures in January.

The sector producing capital goods dropped 16.4% in the monthly index of January 2015, the eleventh consecutive negative figure in this type of comparison and the most intense since June 2014 (-21.5%). This segment was influenced by the decline in all of its groups, highlighted by the reduction of 21.4% in capital goods for transportation equipment, pressed by the reduced manufacturing of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods and trailers and semi-trailers. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for agricultural purposes (-28.0%), for construction (-27.9%), for mixed use (-9.3%), for industrial purposes (-2.2%) and for electricity (-7.8%).

By declining 13.9% in January 2015, the segment of durable consumer goods also registered the eleventh consecutive negative rate in the monthly index and recorded the highest drop since August 2014 (-16.1%). In January, this sector was particularly pressed by the reduced manufacturing of cars (-15.9%) and of brown goods (-30.4%), both still influenced by reduced shifts and collective vacations in a number of producing units. Other important negative influences came from motorcycles (-16.9%), furniture (-4.6%) and white goods (-0.5%). The main positive influence came from the group of other household appliances (2.5%), leveraged by the increased manufacturing of portable household appliances (vacuum cleaners, mixers, fruit squeezers, blenders and the like).

The drop in the production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-5.3%) in January 2015 was the fourth consecutive negative figure in the comparison with the same month a year ago and the most intense since April 2009 (-6.2%). This performance was explained by the retreats in the groups of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-4.1%), semi-durable (-8.6%) and non-durable (-5.5%), pressed by the reduced manufacturing of chocolate candies and bars, fresh, refrigerated and frozen beef, beer, draft beer, fresh, refrigerated and frozen poultry and giblets, ice creams and popsicles, in the first; of mobile telephones, knitted undershirts, shirts, blouses and the like for women, leather footwear for women, trousers for women and DVDs, in the second; and of medicines, in the last sector. It is worth highlighting the negative figure posted by the subsector of fuels (-5.0%), influenced by the reduced manufacturing of motor gasoline.

By reducing 2.4% in January 2015 against the same month a year ago, the production of intermediate goods registered the eleventh consecutive negative rate and recorded a more intense drop than that reported last December (-1.7%). The January´s figure was explained by the retreats in the products associated with the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.4%), fabricated metal products (-14.0%), other chemicals (-7.4%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-11.0%), basic metals (-4.0%), non-metallic mineral products (-5.0%), rubber and plastic products (-5.3%), textiles (-8.1%) and machinery and equipment (-4.9%), whereas the positive pressures were posted by mining and quarrying industries (10.4%), food products (1.9%) and pulp, paper and paper products (1.4%). Still in this category, it is worth mentioning the negative figures registered by the groups of inputs for civil construction (-8.8%), which marked the eleventh consecutive drop in this type of comparison, and of packaging (-1.2%), which retreated once again, after advancing 1.6% last December.