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In February, IBGE estimates harvest increase of 3.5% over 2014

Section: IBGE

March 10, 2015 09h27 AM | Last Updated: January 19, 2018 05h49 PM


Estimate for FEBRUARY 2015
199.6 million metric tons
Change - February/January 2015
-0.9% (-1.8 million metric tons)
Change - 2015 harvest/ 2014 harvest
3.5% (+ 6.8 million metric tons)

The second estimate for the national output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds amounted to 199.6 million metric tons, 3.5% above the figure recorded in 2014 (192.8 million metric tons). The estimate for February in relaton to that of January fell by 1.8 million metric tons (-0.9%). The estimated area to be harvested, (57.2 million hectares) was 1.5% above the area harvested in 2014 (56.3 million hectares). Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, represented, together, 91.5% of the output estimate and accounted for 85.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were decreases of area by 3.9% for soybeans, 1.8% for rice and 1.0% for corn. With reference to output, there were increases of 2.6% for rice, 9.8% for soybeans and decrease of 4.2% for corn.

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By Major Region, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central West Region, 80.6 million metric tons; South, 75.7 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.8 million metric tons; Northeast, 18.9 million metric tons and North, 5.5 million metric tons. In comparison with the previous harvest, there were increments of 0.4% in the North Region, of 20.4% in the Northeast, of 5.1% in the Southeast and of 7.0% in the South Region. The Central-West recorded decrease of 2.8% in relation to the output of the previous year. In this evaluation for 2015, Mato Grosso is the leader as the main national producer of grains, with participation of 23.3%, followed by Paraná, with 18.4% and Rio Grande do Sul, with 16.2%. These states, together, account for 57.9% of the national output.

February estimate for 2015 versus 2014 output

Among the twenty-six main products, twelve recorded positive percent changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in husk - 1st crop (0.7%), peanuts in husk - 2nd crop (3.8%), paddy rice (2.6%), oats in grain (23.6%), barley in grain (23.1%), bean seed - 1st crop (9.6%), bean seed - 2nd crop (1.8%), castor beans in segment (138.0%), cassava (4.2%), corn - 1st crop (0.9%), soybeans grain (9.8%) and wheat grain (21.6%). Fourteen products recorded negative changes: upland cottonseed (7.8%), potato - 1st crop (1.2%), potato - 2nd crop (3.2%), potato - 3rd crop (19.4%), cacao nuts (16.5%), coffee bean - arabica (1.3%), coffee bean - canephora (15.2%), sugarcane (2.5%), onions (8.3%), bean seed - 3rd crop (3.6%), orange (7.4%), corn grain - 2nd crop (7.5%), sorghum grain (6.2%) and triticale grain (10.5%). The most significant increment in production, in absolute figures, compared with the 2014 harvest, was that of soybeans: it exceeded 1 million metric tons (8,445,580 t). In this annual comparison, the main negative changes in absolute figures were those of sugarcane (-17,337,886 t) and corn (-3,316,211 t).

February 2015 versus January 2015 estimates

In the February edition Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production, the highlights were the following production estimates, in comparison with January figures: bean seed - 2nd crop (2.8%), sorghum (1.3%), corn - 2nd crop (-0.4%), soybeans (-0.7%), sugarcane (-1.1%), coffee bean - arabica (-2.1%), corn - 1st crop (-2.8%), coffee bean - canephora (-4.4%) and bean seed - 1st crop (-4.9%).

COFFEA ARABICA (bean) - In 2015 Brazil is expected to produce 1,892,109 metric tons of coffea arabica, which is equivalent to 31.5 million 60-kg sacks. In 2014, this crop was affected by drought and heat, mainly in Minas Gerais and São Paulo, the biggest producers of coffea arabica. The percentage of production decrease in relation to the January estimate is 2.1%. There are records of decrease of average yield, since high temperatures and the low occurrence of rain in the beginning of 2015 were negative factors in this important phase of 'grain filling'. Minas Gerais, the main national producer of coffee beans (arabica) points to decrease of 0.4% in the output expected for February over January 2015, which amounts to 1,345.091 metric tons (22.4 million 60 kg-sacks). The area to be harvested is estimated at 983,078 ha, 1.6% bigger, and the average yield, at 1,368 kg/ha, 1.9% below the previous result.

COFFEA CANEPHORA (bean) - For coffea canephora, the estimated output for February 2015 is 671,226 metric tons (11.2 million sacks), 4.4% less than the expected amount of January. The total area planted with this crop is 518,532 hectares (0.2% bigger). The output of Espírito Santo, the main producer of coffea canephora, is estimated at 457,404 metric tons (7.6 million sacks). It presents decrease of 6.3% in relation to the previous estimate. Due to the dry period and high temperatures, average yield fell 6.6%, leading to reduction of the state output.

SUGARCANE - The national output of sugarcane for 2015 is estimated at 672,624,349 metric tons in a planted area of 10.376,180 hectares, smaller by 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively, when compared to the estimates of January. The average yield of 70,880 kg/ha is 2.3% bigger. São Paulo, the main national producer, has an estimated area to be harvested 7.1% smaller than in the previous edition, leading to decrease of production by 2.8%. This figure was not even bigger due to the expected increase of average yield (4.7%), with a change from 70,000 kg/ha, informed in January, to the current 73,275 kg/ha.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop - The 1st national crop of beans is estimated at 1,543,772 metric tons, which represents decrease of 4.9% in comparison with the January estimate, following the decrease of estimates of the harvested area (0.8%) and of average yield (4.2%). In this February estimate, the main producers of this crop of beans are Paraná (21.5%), Ceará (15.1%) and Minas Gerais (11.5%). The decrease of the estimated output for this month was mainly influenced by the estimates of the states of Ceará (-3.6%), Bahia (-11.3%) and Minas Gerais (-10.0%) which, together, represented 36.5% of the national output.

BEAN SEED - 2nd crop - The estimated national output of bean - 2nd crop amounts to, according to the February edition, 1,366,772 metric tons, 2.8% above the January estimate. The total area planted with this crop is 1,174,758 hectares, 0.2% above the previous estimate. The expected average yield is 2.5% bigger than in January. The three main producing states for 2nd crop are Paraná, Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais with, respectively, 33.2%, 15.0% and 12.1% of participation in the national output.

CORN GRAIN - 1st crop - Decrease of output by 2.8% is expected for in February for corn 1st crop, causing the expected output to be 30.9 million metric tons. Minas Gerais, the main producing state (18.5%) is the main contributor to this decrease at national level. The state is expected to reduce output by 5.7% and average yield, by 2.4%. The drought faced by Minas Gerais in the pollination phase accounts for these negative figures.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - Decrease by 0.7% in the month of February is expected in relation to the national output estimated in January. From the decrease of 628,404 metric tons, 66.1% or 415,510 metric tons correspond to the decline observed in the state of Goiás. This fact resulted mainly from the dry spell period faced by this state in January.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey conducted to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oats, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybean and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.