In the seasonally-adjusted series, the retail trade in Brazil registered positive changes of 0.1% in volume of sales and 0.9% for nominal revenue in June 2016. In a descending path since December 2014, the quarterly moving average for volume of sales changed -0.2% and remained on the positive side (0.6%) for nominal revenue.

In the seasonally-unadjusted series, volume of sales dropped 5.3% in relation to June 2015, recording the 15th consecutive negative rate in this comparison, though less intense than those posted in May (-9.0%) and April (-6.9%). The cumulative index in the first six months of the year fell 7.0%, the lowest figure in the time series. The cumulative rate in the last 12 months also registered the highest drop in the time series (-6.7%). On the other hand, nominal revenue of sales of the retail trade remained on the positive side in June 2016: 6.0% against June 2015, 4.5% in the cumulative rate in the year and 3.4% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months.

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the extended retail trade – comprising the retail trade plus the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction material – recorded a change of -0.2% in relation to May 2016, both for volume of sales and for nominal revenue of sales.  The drop in volume of sales was of 8.4% in relation to June 2015, also less intense than those recorded in May (-10.2%) and April (-9.2%). Concerning the cumulative changes, the retreat in the semester was of 9.3% and, in the last 12 months, of -10.1%. In June 2016, nominal revenue of sales of the extended retail trade remained stable in relation to the same month in 2015 (0.0%), yet declined 0.8% in the cumulative index in the year. The rate stayed at -2.1% in the cumulative indicator in the last 12 months.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

3 of 8 activities surveyed change positively

After declining 0.9% in May, the volume of the retail trade remained virtually stable between May and June (0.1%). The sectors of fuels and lubricants (-0.1%); furniture and household appliances  (-0.1%); and pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (-0,2%) also remained relatively stable against May.

After a relative stability registered in May (0.1%), the retreat of 0.4% in the group of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, followed by office, computer and communication material and equipment (-3.6%) negatively pressed the overall average of the retail.

Influenced by the festive days in June, the volume of sales of the segments of fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (0.7%) and other personal and household articles (0.8%) advanced in June over May, followed by books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (0.6%).

The extended retail trade changed -0.2% against May, as vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces recorded a loss of 1.3% in relation to May, in opposition to the advance of 1.3% in construction material in this same comparison.

BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF VOLUME OF SALES OF THE RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE
ACCORDING TO GROUPS OF ACTIVITIES: PMC - June 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Seasonally-adjusted series. (2) The indicator of the retail trade comprises the results of the activities numbered 1 to 8.
(3) The indicator of  the extended retail trade comprises the results of the activities numbered 1 to 10.

Compared with June 2015, volume of sales of the retail trade declined 5.3%, posting a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching all the activities surveyed.

The activities that mostly contributed to the overall rate were: hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-2.9%), furniture and household appliances (-9.7%), fuels and lubricants (-8.9%) and other personal and household articles (-8.4%). These activities accounted for more than 80% of the overall rate.

The other activities that dropped were: fabric, wearing apparel and footwear (-3.7%), office, computer and communication material and equipment (-18.3%), pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries (-2.1%) and books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-18.3%).

BRAZIL - COMPOSITION OF THE MONTHLY RATE OF THE RETAIL TRADE,
BY ACTIVITY: PMC - June 2016
(Indicators of volume of sales)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
Note: The composition of the monthly rate corresponds to the contribution of the sectoral results to the overall rate.

By changing -2.9% in volume of sales over the same month last year, the segment of hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco exerted the greatest contribution to the overall index in June. This activity kept the high correlation with the negative evolution of the usual real wage bill. In the cumulative indexes, the rate for the first six months of the year was -3.6%, and for the last 12 months, -3.4%.

Having dropped -9.7% in volume of sales in relation to June last year, the segment of furniture and household appliances was the second biggest negative contributor to the overall rate of the retail trade. This result was explained by the reduced pace of growth of credit to the families, in addition to the dropping real income. The cumulative rate in the year was -14.5% and, in the last 12 months, of -15.7%.

Having changed -8.9% in volume of sales in relation to June 2015, the segment of fuels and lubricants exerted the third biggest influence on the overall rate of the retail. As to the cumulative performance in the semester, the change rate reached -9.8% and, in the last 12 months, -9.3% . The increase in the fuel prices, above the overall inflation index, was influencing the behavior of this sector.

The activity of other articles of personal and domestic use, which encompasses department, optical, jewelry, sport article, toy stores, etc.,  also exerted the third biggest negative impact on the retail trade rate, with a change of -8.4% in volume of sales in relation to June 2015. In cumulative terms, the rate for the first semester of the year was -12.3% and, for the last 12 months, -8.7%.

The segment of fabric, wearing apparel and footwear changed -3.7% in volume of sales in relation to the same month a year ago. Although the wearing apparel prices were evolving below the general inflation, the performance of this sector was negative. It should be mentioned, however, that the rate registered in June was the lowest one in 2016. As to the cumulative performance in the semester, the change rate reached -11.1% and, in the last 12 months, -11.3%.

Having declined 18.3% over June 2015, the segment of office, computer and communication material and equipment also influenced negatively the overall result. In cumulative terms, the rate in the semester was -16.2% and, in the last 12 months, -14.0%. Among the factors that were determining this performance, the currency exchange rate stood out, reflecting in the prices of a number of imported electronic components, especially for microcomputers and electronic devices.

The activity of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles and toiletries retreated 2.1% compared with June last year. The essential nature of the products traded was being pressed by the behavior of the prices of pharmaceuticals, which evolved above the general rate of inflation in the last two months. However, the cumulative rates remained on the positive side: 0.2% in the first semester of 2016 and 0.7% in the last 12 months.

Having changed -18.3% in volume of sales, the activity of books, newspapers, magazines and stationery slightly impacted the result of the overall retail. The cumulative volume of sales in the first semester of the year changed -17.0% and, in the last 12 months, -15.5%. The declining pace of this activity was being influenced by the replacement of electronic media for printed products, particularly in the case of newspapers and magazines.

Compared with the same month a year ago, the extended retail trade recorded a decline of 8.4%, posting a cumulative loss of 9.3% in the semester and of 10.1% in the last ten months. Even with more business days in June 2016, the result of the extended retail was impacted by the reduced pace of the economic activity, by the increase in the interest rates and by the reduction in the household income.

The performance of the extended retail reflected, above all, the behavior of the sales of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which dropped 15.2% over June 2015 and registered cumulative rates of -13.7% in the first six months and of -17.1% in the last 12 months.

The segment of construction material retreated 9.8% in terms of volume of sales when compared with June 2015. As to the cumulative rates, the figures were: -13.0% in the first semester and -12.4% in the last 12 months.

Volume of sales grows in 13 of 27 Federation Units

In the seasonally-adjusted series, volume of sales retreated in 13 out of the 27 Federation Units in June 2016 compared with the immediately previous month. In terms of the magnitude of the rates, the negative highlights were: Paraíba (-2.0%); Tocantins and Rio de Janeiro (-1.4%); Santa Catarina (-1.2%), Piauí (-1.1%); and Rio Grande do Norte (-1.0%). On the other hand, Paraná (7.4%) recorded the biggest advance in volume of sales.

Compared with June 2015, the reduction in volume of sales of the retail reached all the 27 states.  In terms of the magnitude of the rate, the highlight was Amapá (-19.1%).  As to the contribution to the retail trade rate, the highlights were, in order of importance: Rio de Janeiro (-9.5%), followed by São Paulo (-1.7%).

Concerning the extended retail trade, the 27 Federation Units recorded negative figures, in terms of volume of sales, when compared with June 2015, except for Roraima (1.5%). Amapá (-17.8%) stood out, posting the highest rate. The biggest negative contributions to the extended retail trade rate were -6.3% in São Paulo and -13.6% in Rio de Janeiro.