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In June, IBGE expects harvest to be 6.7% bigger than in 2014

July 09, 2015 11h50 AM | Last Updated: January 18, 2018 05h25 PM



JUNE estimate for 2015

205.8 million metric tons

Change  June 2015/May 2015

0.7% (+1.5 million metric tons)

Change harvest 2015/harvest 2014

6.7% (+12.9 million metric tons)

The sixth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2015 added up to 205.8 million metric tons, 6.7% bigger than that obtained in 2014 (192.9 million metric tons) and 1,489,457 metric tons (0.7%) bigger than the May forecast. The estimated area to be harvested, 57.5 million hectares, represented an increase of 1.9% over the harvested area in 2014 (56.4 million hectares) and a decrease of 45,827 hectares over the previous month (-0.1%). Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 91.9% of the production estimate and accounted for 86.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the area for soybeans increased 5.5%, the area for corn increased 0.8% and the area for rice reduced 3.5%. The production increased 1.9% for rice, 11.6% for soybeans and 2.0% for corn. The complete publication can be accessed here.



Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Major Regions
Participation in production
June 2015

Major Region Participation(%)
Central-West 41.6
South 37.6
Northeast 8.8
Southeast 9.1
North 2.9

Cereals, legumes and oilseeds
Federation Units
Participation in production
June 2015

FU Participation (%)
MT 24.1
PR 18.4
RS 16.0
GO 9.4
MS 7.8
MG 5.7
BA 4.3
SP 3.4
SC 3.2
MA 2.0
PI 1.6
TO 1.4
PA 0.9
RO 0.5
SE 0.4
DF 0.4
CE 0.3
RR 0.1
PB 0.1
AC 0.1
PE 0.1
AL 0.0
AM 0.0
ES 0.0
RN 0.0
RJ 0.0
AP 0.0


In regional terms, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West, 85.7 million metric tons; South, 77.4 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.7 million metric tons; Northeast, 18.1 million metric tons and North, 6.0 million metric tons. The comparison with the last harvest registered increases of 10.3% in the North Region, 14.7% in the Northeast, 4.0% in the Southeast, 9.4% in the South and 3.2% in the Central-West. In the 2015 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.1%, followed by Paraná (18.4%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.0%). These states together accounted for 58.5% of the national forecast.

June estimate in relation to May 2015

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of June highlighted the following changes in the production estimates, compared with May: onions (+7.8%), sorghum (+4.4%), corn - 2nd crop (+3.4%), triticale (+2.1), barley (+1.6%), soybeans (+0.2%), wheat (-0.5%), corn - 1st crop (-1.1%), beans - 1st crop (-1,9%) and oat (-4.1%).

ONIONS – The production was estimated at 1.6 million metric tons, a rise of 7.8% in relation to the previous month. Increases of 2.6% in the planted area and of 5.0% in the average yield were also estimated. As the biggest producer with 34.0% of the overall production, Santa Catarina was expected to begin cropping next month. The high prices practiced in the market have encouraged the producers of Santa Catarina to invest in this crop. This state was expected to produce 557.3 thousand metric tons of onions, 16.4% above the forecast in the previous month. This increase was based in the increasing planted area, estimated at 7.4%, and in the increasing average yield (8.2%).

BEAN SEED – Considering the three crops of this product, the production was estimated at 3.3 million metric tons. The estimated planted area decreased 0.3% in relation to May. The expected production was also reduced by 1.3%, though the expected average yield increased 0.7%. In this survey, the major producers were Paraná (22.3% of the overall production), Minas Gerais (16.1%) and Bahia (11.4%). The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.4 million metric tons, registering a drop of 1.9% over the May estimate and reflecting the reduction of 0.6% in the planted area and of 2.8% in the area to be harvested. An increase of 0.9% was estimated for the average yield. In the June forecast, the major producers of beans- 1st crop were: Paraná (23.1%), Ceará (13.6%) and Minas Gerais (11.4%). The reduction of the production estimated for June was mainly influenced by the estimates in the states of the Northeast Region (-4.4%), especially in Rio Grande do Norte, which reduced the production by 52.5% and the harvested area by 50.8% and in Pernambuco, which reduced the production by 61.9% and the area to be harvested by 42.7%.

CORN GRAIN – The overall production of corn - first and second crops - was estimated at 80.3 million metric tons. The rise over May was mainly due to the improving average yield, which changed from 5,146 kg/ha to 5,233 kg/ha. The return of rainfall during the second crop of corn in the major producing areas was one of the main reasons for the increasing yield at national level. The estimated production of corn - 1st crop was 30.1 million metric tons, a reduction of 1.1% in relation to the previous month. Having dropped 7.3% as a result of the fourth consecutive year of drought, the Northeast Region was the main responsible for the variation of these first-crop data. Ceará estimated a production 52.1% below that of the previous month, whereas Rio Grande do Norte reduced its estimated production by 55.6%. 50.2 million metric tons were expected for corn 2nd crop, an increase of 3.4% in relation to May. The states mainly responsible for increasing the production estimate were Goiás (10.0%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.9%) and Paraná (3.8%). 7.3, 8.4 and 10.8 million metric tons were expected for these states, respectively. These increases followed the increases recorded in the planted area and in the average yield in June in relation to May.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – Having finished the harvest of soybeans, the production was record in Brazil. Estimated at 96.4 million metric tons, the production was 0.2% higher than that estimated in the previous month. Once more, Mato Grosso proved to be the biggest producer of this crop with an estimated production of 27.6 million metric tons, 0.1% bigger than that in the previous month. This state had its data slightly changed: the average yield reduced by 0.1% and the harvested area increased by 0.2%, reaching 8.9 million hectares.

SORGHUM GRAIN - The production estimate reached 2.1 million metric tons, representing a rise of 4.4% over the previous month. The planted area increased 1.4% and the harvested area, 1.2%, whereas the expected average yield increased 3.1%, as a result of more intense rainfall in the Central-West Region. Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and the Federal District respectively reported increases of 5.8%, 4.3% and 17.0% in the average yields. As the biggest producer and responsible for 46.8% of the total crop to be harvested, Goiás reassessed the production estimate, changing it from 875.3 thousand metric tons to 977.9 thousand metric tons, an increase of 102,626 metric tons. In this state, the planted area and the area to be harvested increased 5.6%, while the expected average yield rose 5.8%, changing from 3,128 kg/ha to 3,310 kg/ha, i.e., an advance of 182 kg/ha.

WINTER CEREALS - The production estimates for June 2015 pointed to a decrease of 4.1% for oat and of 0.5% for wheat. Barley (1.6%) and triticale (2.1%) increased when compared with the data from the previous month. As the most important winter cereal in terms of consumption and production volume in Brazil, wheat registered an estimate of 7.3 million metric tons in a production area of 2.5 million hectares. In Paraná, the main producer in Brazil, planting hit 95% of the estimated area. As the second biggest producer with a participation of 34.7% in the overall production, Rio Grande do Sul estimated that 42% of the area was cropped, from which 38% were already in the germination or vegetative growth phase.

June 2015 estimate in relation to production obtained in 2014

Among the 26 main products, 13 recorded positive changes in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (0.2%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (5.4%), paddy rice (1.9%), oat grain (47.9%), coffee beans (arabica) (1.7%), onions (2.2%), barley grain (24.1%), bean seed - 1st crop (2.2%), castor beans (138.8%), cassava (4.4%), corn grain - 2nd crop (4.2%), soybean grain (11.6%) and wheat grain (18.3%). Thirteen products posted negative changes: upland cottonseed (-7.4%), potatoes - 1st crop (-0.7%), potatoes - 2nd crop (-3.1%), potatoes - 3rd crop (-20.6%), cacao nuts (-10.6%), coffee beans (canephora) (-17.6%), sugarcane (1.5%), bean seed - 2nd crop (2.7%), bean seed - 3rd crop (6.8%), oranges (6.9%), corn grain - 1st crop (-1.4%), sorghum grain (-5.5%) and triticale grain(-13.9%). Soybeans (10,021,948 t) and corn - 2nd crop (2,024,954 t) posted the most significant increases in production in absolute numbers, surpassing the 2014 harvest by 2.0 million metric tons. Also in absolute numbers, the highest negative change in the annual comparison was sugarcane (-10,374,571 t).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency (Conab), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.