In the seasonally-adjusted series, the increasing pace registered in the national industrial output between April and May 2015 was followed by nine out of the 14 places surveyed, highlighted by the most intense advances recorded in Ceará (3.6%), Amazonas (2.6%), Pernambuco (1.4%) and Minas Gerais (1.3%). Considering the May´s figures, Ceará offset part of the decline of 10.1% posted in the March-April period; Amazonas recovered part of the drop of 4.8% registered in April; Pernambuco interrupted three consecutive months of negative rates, when it recorded a cumulative loss of 9.0%; and Minas Gerais recovered part of the loss of 5.8% reported between February and April. Santa Catarina (0.7%), Espírito Santo (0.6%), São Paulo (0.5%), Paraná (0.3%) and Rio de Janeiro (0.2%) were the other places that registered positive indexes in May 2015. On the other hand, the Northeast Region (-2.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-1.6%) and Pará (-1.5%) recorded the highest losses, whereas Bahia (-1.0%) and Goiás (-0.6%) posted more moderate reductions. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Short-term Indicators of Industry
Regional Results
May 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
* Seasonally-adjusted series

Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry pointed to a decline of 0.5% in the quarter ended in May 2015 over the previous month and maintained the downward trend started in September 2014. In regional terms, also considering the marginal movement of this index, nine places recorded negative rates, highlighted by the sharpest declines reported in Ceará (-2.4%), Pernambuco (-1.9%), São Paulo (-1.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (-0.7%) and Minas Gerais (-0.7%). On the other hand, Bahia (4.7%), Rio de Janeiro (1.2%) and the Northeast Region (0.7%) posted the major advances in May 2015.

In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the industrial sector reduced 8.8% in May 2015, showing a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching 13 out of the 15 places surveyed. It is worth mentioning that May 2015 (20 days) had one business day less than the same month in the previous year (21). In May, the most intense declines were reported in Ceará (-13.9%), São Paulo (-13.7%), Amazonas (-13.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-13.3%) pressed, at a large extent, by the reduced manufacturing in the sectors of leather articles, travel articles and footwear (molded synthetic sneakers and molded plastic footwear for women), textiles (cotton yarn and fabrics) and beverages (beer, draft beer, sugarcane spirits and soft drinks), in Ceará; of food products (crystallized sugar), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (cars, trucks and car pieces), machinery and equipment (machinery for the pulp sector, graders, valves, taps and cocks, wheel loaders and rammers and steamrollers or road rollers) and computer equipment, electronic and optical products (mobile telephones, computers and video displays), in São Paulo; of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (TV sets and mobile telephones) and other transportation equipment (motorcycles and their pieces), in Amazonas; and of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (cars and trailers and semi-trailers) and machinery and equipment (farm tractors, forklift trucks and metallic silos for cereals), in Rio Grande do Sul. Paraná (-10.1%) and Santa Catarina
(-9.9%) also registered sharper falls than the national average (-8.8%), whereas Minas Gerais (-7.2%), Pernambuco (-6.2%), Bahia (-5.5%), the Northeast Region
(-5.4%), Mato Grosso (-4.9%), Goiás (-3.4%) and Rio de Janeiro (-2.0%) were the other places that recorded negative figures in May. Conversely, Espírito Santo (14.1%) and Pará (2.6%) posted advances in May 2015 against May 2014, leveraged, at a large extent, by the positive behavior of the sectors of mining and quarrying industries (pelletized or sintered iron ore) and basic metals (hot-rolled steel carbon coils and steel carbon ingots, blocks, rods or plates), in Espírito Santo, and of mining and quarrying industries (crude or processed iron ore) and pulp, paper and paper products (pulp), in Pará.

In the cumulative indicator for January-May 2015 against the same period last year, the reduced overall production reached 13 out of the 15 places surveyed, eight of them declining more than the industry average (-6.9%): Amazonas (-17.3%), Rio Grande do Sul (-11.5%), Bahia (-10.9%), Ceará (-9.4%), Paraná (-8.8%), São Paulo
(-8.6%), Minais Gerais (-7.4%) and Santa Catarina (-7.4%). The following were the places that recorded negative figures at the end of the first five months of the year: The Northeast Region (-6.0%), Rio de Janeiro (-4.6%), Goiás (-1.3%), Pernambuco (-1.3%) and Mato Grosso
(-0.7%). In these places, the lower dynamism was particularly influenced by factors related to the reduced manufacturing of capital goods (especially those oriented to transportation equipment - tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks and vehicles for transportation of goods); intermediate goods (car pieces, petroleum products, textiles, steel products, fabricated metal products, basic petrochemicals, thermoplastic resins and pesticides); durable consumer goods (cars, white and brown goods, motorcycles and furniture); and semi and non-durable consumer goods (medicines, textiles, wearing apparel, beverages, food and motor gasoline). On the other hand, Espírito Santo (18.0%) and Pará (6.8%) posted positive figures in the cumulative index in the year, leveraged, at a large extent, by the positive behavior coming from the mining and quarrying sector.

The signs of deceleration in the pace of production were also clear in the comparison of the cumulative index between the first quarter of 2015 with the result of the first five months of 2015, being both comparisons against equivalent periods in the preceding year, when nine out of the 15 areas surveyed decelerated, following the national index, which changed from -5.9% to -6.9%. In this same type of comparison, Mato Grosso (from 4.0% to -0.7%), Ceará (from -6.1% to -9.4%), Pernambuco (from 2.0% to -1.3%), São Paulo (from -5.7% to -8.6%), Espírito Santo (from 20.7% to 18.0%) and Pará (from 8.8% to 6.8%) registered the highest reductions, whereas Rio de Janeiro (from -6.4% to
-4.6%), Paraná (from -10.4% to -8.8%) and Bahia (from -12.1% to -10.9%) recorded the highest gains between the two periods.

Having decreased 5.3% in May 2015, the annualized rate - cumulative indicator in the last 12 months - maintained the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%) and recorded the most significant negative figure since December 2009 (-7.1%). In regional terms, 11 out of the 15 places surveyed recorded negative rates in May 2015 and 12 showed lower dynamism against the index of last April. Between April and May, the main losses were registered in Pará (from 7.0% to 5.2%), Ceará (from -5.0% to -6.0%), São Paulo (from -7.0% to -7.9%), Santa Catarina (from -4.2% to -5.0%), Mato Grosso (from 2.4% to 1.7%) and Goiás (from 2.1% to 1.5%), whereas Espírito Santo (from 13.2% to 14.3%) recorded the highest gain between the two periods.