The seventh estimate for the 2015 national output of cereals, legumes and oilseeds amounted to 209.0 million metric tons, 8.1% above that of 2014 (193.3 million metric tons) and 32,608.752 metric tons (1.3%) above the June estimate. The estimated area to be harvested is 57.7 million hectares, presenting increase of 2.1% in comparison with the area harvested in 2014 (56.5 million hectares), and increase of 79,564 hectares in comparison with the previous month (0.1%). Rice, corn and soybeans represented, together, 92.2% of the estimated output and 86.3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year there were increases of area by 5.8% for soybeans, 1.1% for corn and decrease for rice, by 2.6%. With reference to output, there were increases of 4.4% for rice, 11.9% for soybeans and 5.2% for corn. The complete publication can be seen here.

Among the Major Regions, the produced volume of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presents the following distribution: Central West, 87.6 million metric tons; South, 77.9 million metric tons; Southeast, 18.7 million metric tons; Northeast, 17.8 million metric tons and North, 7.0 million metric tons. In comparison with the previous harvest, there were increments of 18.7% in the North Region; of 13.1% in the Northeast; of 4.5% in the Southeast; of 10.1% in the South and of 5.5% in the Central West Region. In this evaluation for 2015, Mato Grosso was the leader as the major producer of grains, with participation of 24.7%, followed by Paraná (18.2%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.9%), which, together, accounted for 58.8% of the expected national output.

July 2015 estimate versus 2014 output

Among the twenty six main products, fifteen recorded positive percent change in relation to the previous year: peanuts in husk 1st crop (6.3%), peanuts in husk 2nd crop (6.3%), paddy rice (4.4%), oat grain (60.8%), potatoes 2nd crop (1.4%), coffee beans - arabica (4.6%), sugarcane (2.1%), onions (0.3%), barley grain (21.8%), orange (9.3%), castor beans (131.6%), cassava (2.3%), corn grain - 2nd crop (9.7%), soybean grain (11.9%) and wheat grain (17.0%). Eleven products recorded positive change: upland cottonseed (-6.3%), potatoes 1sct crop (-0.7%), potatoes 3rd crop (-12.8%), cacao nut (-11.0%), coffee bean canephora (-18.5%), bean grain 1st crop (-4.2%), bean grain 2nd crop (-3.7%), bean grain 3rd crop (-5.0%), corn grain 1st crop (-2.0%), sorghum grain (-11.3%) and triticale grain (-13.7%). The most significant increments in output, in absolute figures, above 2.0 million metric tons, in comparison with the 2014 harvest, were those of sugarcane (14,531,126 t), soybeans (10,246,096 t) and for 2nd harvest corn (4,704,307 t).

Highlights in the July 2015 estimate in relation to June 2015

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of July, the highlights were changes in the following output estimates, in comparison with June results: orange (+17.4%), potatoes 3rd crop (+9.8%), oat (+8.7%), corn 2nd crop (+5.0), potatoes 2nd crop (+4.6%), sugarcane (+3.7%), coffee beans arabica (+2,8%), rice (+2.4%), beans 3rd crop (+2.0%), upland cotton (+1.1%), beans 2nd crop (-1.1%), coffee beans canephora (-1.1%), wheat (-1.1%), sorghum (-6.1%) and beans 1st harvest (-6.3%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED (em caroço) – A estimativa da produção em julho alcançou 4,0 milhões de toneladas, crescimento de 1,1% frente ao mês anterior, refletindo o rendimento médio que aumentou 0,9%. Os dados foram influenciados pelo Mato Grosso, principal produtor e responsável por 57,2% do total nacional, que teve sua estimativa de produção aumentada em 1,8%, devendo alcançar 2,3 milhões de toneladas. A área plantada e o rendimento médio foram aumentados em 0,4% e 1,3%, respectivamente, reflexo do prolongamento atípico das chuvas durante o outono.

RICE (grain) – With the ending harvest, output reached 12.7 million metric tons, with increase of 2.4% in the previous month. The areas planted and harvested have grown 0.9% and 1.0% respectively, whereas the average yield fell 1.4%. The data were affected by the production of Tocantins, which increased 36.4% due to the rise of 25.8% of planted area and of 8.4% in the average yield, with increase of output estimated by 196.9 thousand metric tons and, in July, 737.5 thousand metric tons, as a consequence of more rainy weather. That led to a bigger yield for rice and also to the volume expansion in water reservations used in irrigation, and in Rio Grande do Sul, the main national producer, having accounted for 68.4% of the total produced in the country, where the dry climate during the harvesting period allowed the increase of yield, as well as the improvement in grain quality.

COFFEE BEAN - The output estimate for coffee in July amounted to 2.7 million metric tons or 44.2 million 60 kg sacks, pointing to increase of 1.8% in relation to the June figure. The area to be harvested presented increase of 1.7%, whereas the average, by 0.1%. The country is expected to harvest a total 2.0 million metric tons of coffee arabica, or 33.4 million 60 kg sacks, and this type of coffee is expected to represent 75.7% of the total. The data were mainly influenced by São Paulo, expected to produce 218.2 thousand metric tons, with increase of 32.2% in comparison with the June result, and increases of 21.7% in the area to be harvested and of 8.6% in the average yield. The improvement of commercialization prices for coffee arabica stimulated the increase of investments in crops. As for coffee canephora, the estimated production is expected to reach 645.0 thousand metric tons, with reduction of 1.1% in comparison with the previous month. The data have been influenced by figures from Espírito Santo, which recorded 1.5% of decrease in the output estimate in relation to the previous month. The state is the main producer of this type of coffee, being expected to represent 68.3% of the total to be harvested in the country. However, dry periods have affected several producing municipalities.

SUGARCANE – The estimated production in July reached 703.2 million metric tons, with increase of 3.7% in comparison with the previous month. The planted area presents increment of 5.2%, whereas the area to be harvested and the average yield present increase of 2.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The data have been influenced by São Paulo, the main national producer, which must have a contribution of 52.4% of the total to be harvested in the country. The São Paulo harvest was reevaluated by CGCEA as 368.2 million metric tons, with increase of 7.2% in comparison with the previous month, increments of 10.4% in planted area, 5.0% in the area to be harvested and 2.1% in the average yield.

BEAN SEED – Although the estimate for planted area with beans has decreased by only 1,300 hectares, the output estimate fell by 3.0% according to the decrease of 2.7% expected for the average yield in comparison with the June result. In this survey, the main producers are Paraná, with 23.0%, Minas Gerais, with 16.3% and Bahia, with 11.8% of participation in the national output. The 1st crop of beans is estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, which represents decrease of 6.3% in relation to the June estimate, reflecting the 6.0% decrease in average yield, since the planted area rose 0.1%. In the July estimate, the biggest producers of this crop of beans are Paraná (24.7%), Minas Gerais (12.2%) and Bahia (11.7%). The reduced output estimate for the 1st crop of beans was mainly due to the states in the Northeast Region, which contributed with 28.8% to the national output and reduced their estimated average yield by 21.0%. The estimated national output for beans 2nd crop amounted to 1.4 million metric tons, 1.1% less than the June estimate, following the forecasts of reduction of planted area (0.4%) and of average yield (0.6%). São Paulo faced decrease of planted area by 32.7% and of average yield, by 7.5%. As a result, the output estimate is 37.8% smaller than in June. In this survey, the biggest producing states in 2nd harvest crop are Paraná, Mato Grosso and Bahia, with, respectively, 28.4%, 17.9% and 15.7% in the national output. For 3rd crop, together with the increase of 1.5% in the estimated planted area and of 0.4% in the average yield, the production estimate rose 2.0% in comparison with the June figure, staying at 446.9 thousand metric tons. Minas Gerais, the main national producer for 3rd crop beans, with 43.7% of the national output, had its estimated planted area reduced by 6.3% and the average yield by 3.7%. Its output, estimated at 195.4 thousand metric tons, presents decrease of 2.8% versus the June figure. Goiás, the second main producer of this crop, with 30.1% of the total amount produced in the country, recorded increases of 15.6% in the estimated planted area and of 13.3% in the output, despite the decrease of 2.0% in the expected average yield.

ORANGE (metric tons) - The July estimate reached 16.2 million metric tons, with increase of 17.4% in comparison with the previous month. The planted area recorded increase of 5.5%, whereas the area to be harvested and the average yield increased by 11.1% and 5.6%, respectively. The data reflect information from São Paulo, which is the main producer, and is expected to represent 71.7% of the total to be harvested in the country. The expected harvest amounts to 11.6 million metric tons, with increase of 26.2% in comparison with the previous month, and the area to be harvested and the average yield have grown by 201% and 5.1%, respectively.

MILHO (grain) - The estimated output reached a record figure of 83.3 million metric tons, with increase o 2.9% in comparison with the previous month. The data on production also reflect the influence of Mato Grosso, where the rain period was prolonged beyond the normal extent. That benefited the production of 2nd harvest corn, with expected output of 20.9 million metric tons, increase of 11.3% in comparison with the previous month, planted area and that to be harvest 3.7% bigger and average yield 7.3% bigger. That means an increase by 2,117,942 metric tons in the June result.

WHEAT, OAT AND BARLEY (grain) – In comparison with the previous month, the estimates for July point to decrease of 1.1% for wheat, with an output of 7.2 million metric tons, and decrease of 1.9% for barley (with an output of 310.2 thousand metric tons). Regarding oat, output is expected to increase by 8.7%, with 592.8 thousand metric tons more. Harsh climate conditions in the first half of July exerted little effect on the development of crops. The negative change of wheat reflects data from Rio Grande do Sul, where there was decrease of 1.7% in the output estimate, due to the decrease of 3.4% in the estimated planted area. The production of Rio Grande do Sul is expected to reach 2.5 million metric tons. In Paraná, the planting of wheat advanced in July, with crops going through the steps of vegetative growth (70%), flowering (20%) and fruiting (10%). The expected output is 4.0 million metric tons, 0.1% more than in the previous month. Rio Grande do Sul is the main producer of oat, and is expected to represent 76.8% of the overall amount harvested. The estimated output is 455.1 thousand metric tons, with increase of 5.7% in the previous month. In Paraná, planting is over and crops stand a variable aspect, ranging between regular and good. The expected production is 137.7 thousand metric tons, 20.2% more than in the previous month. As for barley, Paraná is the main producer, with 205 thousand metric tons, being expected to represent, in the current crop, 66.1% of the overall amount. In Rio Grande do Sul, the expected production is 96.8 thousand metric tons, 1.5% below that in the previous month.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals, Legumes and Oilseeds (cotton seed, peanut, rice, beans, castor beans, corn, soybean, oat, rye, barley, sunflower, sorghum, wheat and triticale) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.