The ninth estimate of the 2015 national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounts for 210.4 million tonnes, 8.8% higher than that of 2014 (193.3 million tonnes) and 396.248 tonnes (0.2%) above August's estimate. The estimated area to be harvested is 57.7 million hectares, with increase of 2.0% in comparison with that of 2014 (56.5 million hectares) and increase of 71.956 hectares in relation to the previous month (0.1%). Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 92.5% of the production estimate and accounted for 86.4% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 6.0% for soybeans, of 0.9% in the area for corn and reduction of 5.5% in the rice area. Concerning production, the increases were of 3.4% for rice, 12.2% for soybeans and of 7.3% for corn. The complete publication can be accessed here.

Among the Major Regions, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West Region, 89.6 million metric tonnes; South Region, 77.6 million metric tonnes; Southeast Region, 18.8 million metric tonnes; Northeast Region, 17.3 million metric tonnes; and North Region, 7.2 million metric tonnes. Compared with the previous crops, there were increments of 21.5% in the North, 9.6% in the Northeast, 4.7% in the Southeast, 9.6% in the South, and 8.0% in the Central-West Region. In the 2015 survey, Mato Grosso was the leader as the main national producer of grain, with a participation of 25.0%, followed by Paraná (18.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.7%). These states together accounted for 58.8% of the national amount expected.

Highlights in the September 2015 estimate in relation to August 2015

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of September the highlights were the changes in the following output estimates, in comparison with August’s results: onions (+3.9%), upland cotton (+2.5%), corn - 2nd crop  (+1.4%), cassava (+1.0%), bean seed - 3rd crop (+1.0%), coffea canephora  (-1.6%), triticale (-1.8%), coffea arabica (-2.2%), wheat (-6.2%) and oat (6.8%).

UPLAND COTTON – With crops finished in Bahia and at the final stage in Mato Grosso, it is estimated that these two states have produced 87.2% of 4.1 million tonnes to be harvested. The harvested area was estimated at 1.1 million hectares, 1.6% bigger than that informed in August. Mato Grosso, if the average yield of 4,063 kg/ha eventually takes place, will have the highest yield of its history. The production of the state is now being estimated at 2.4 million tonnes, exceeding 4.3% in the comparison with the previous month.

COFFEE (beans) – The estimated production reached 2,570,358 tonnes (42.8 million 60kg sacks) a drop of 2.0% in relation to the previous month. The area to be harvested is 0.7% lower and the average yield fell by 1.4%. Minas Gerais, the largest producer of the country, with a participation of 52.1%, reduced its production estimate of coffea arabica by 3.2% in September, reflecting declines of 1.3% in the area to be harvested and of 1.9% in the average yield. In relation to coffee canephora, the estimated production reached 632,858 tonnes, or 10.5 million 60kg sacks, showing a drop of 1.6% compared to the previous month. Conversely, Espírito Santo, the main producer of this kind of coffee, reduced the estimated production by 2.7% in relation to the previous month.

ONIONS – For the month of September there was a production of 1.7 million tonnes, 3.9% more, when compared with the previous month. The planted area and the average yield also suffered positive changes. In Santa Catarina, main producer, accounting for 34.9% of the national output, the culture is still in the field and with estimates of harvest between October and November. The change of production in the state is 5.2% higher than that of the previous month, estimated now at 586,2 thousand tonnes. The estimates of planted area in Minas Gerais rose 1.7% and the average yield of 0.3%. With the crops at the last stage, 179,3 thousand tonnes are expected, exceeding 2.0% when compared to August.

BEAN SEED – The estimate for the area with beans increased by 0.2% and the average yield, 0.4%. Thus, the expectation of production was 0.4% higher than in August. In this survey, the biggest producers are Paraná (23.5%), Minas Gerais (16.5%) and Bahia (12.0%). For the 3rd crop, along with the increases of 0.2% in the estimate of the area and of 0.8% in average yield, the expectation of production rose 1.0% compared to August, staying at 449,062 tonnes. The result was influenced by the expectations raised in Goiás, above (to) those of August: 2.5% in the planted area, 2.1% in average yield and 4.6% in the production.

CASSAVA (root) - The estimated output reached 21,212,389 (metric) tonnes, an increase of 1.0% in relation to the previous month.  The data reflected the review of the survey in Paraná, with an increase of 6.8% in the production in relation to August, it must achieve 4,226,667 tonnes. The area to be harvested in the state showed an increase of 4.3% and the average yield grew 2.3%. Paraná is the second largest producer in the country, with a participation of 18.0% of the total, achieving the highest average yield of this culture, 27,023 kg/ha.

CORN (grain) – The record production of corn grain for 2015, estimated at 84,969,848 tonnes, is a consequence, mainly, of the excellent second crop the country had. This month there was a high of 0.8% in the estimated production versus (the) August’s figure. The rise of the average yield is responsible for an increase of production. The national average of 5,487 kg/ha is 0.6% higher than that reported in the previous month. Corn - 1st crop had a negative estimate of 0.3% in the production, when compared to August’s figure. This month registered 29.6 million tonnes. This is the lowest production recorded by the IBGE in the last decade. For Minas Gerais, the survey informed an estimated production 0.3% lower than in August, a production of 5.5 million tonnes. The average yield increased 0.2%, totaling 5,650 kg/ha. The production of corn - 2nd crop was the largest ever (recorded) in the country. Estimated at 55.4 million tonnes, there was a rise of 1.4% in relation to the previous month. The average yield registered an increase of 0.3%. Of the four major domestic producers, three achieved positive increases for September: Mato Grosso, Paraná and Goiás. Mato Grosso has harvested the largest corn crop of its history, as a consequence, mainly, of the second crop, which, alone, was greater than the whole production of the state in 2014. The survey in Mato Grosso has estimated, in this second crop, a production of 21.5 million tonnes. The average yield increased 1.8%, totaling 6,103 kg/ha. In Paraná and Goiás, the increases in the production estimates were 0.9% and 2.4%, respectively. In this review of September the production forecasts are of 11.3 million tonnes for Paraná and 7.5 million tonnes for Goiás.

WHEAT (grain) – The production of wheat was estimated in September at 6,771,679 tonnes, a reduction of 6.2% in relation to the previous month. The area to be harvested declined by 0.5% and the average yield fell by 5.8%. The data were influenced by the production estimates of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, which fell by 9.0% and 3.7%, respectively, in relation to the previous month. The excessive rainfall and frost in some producing municipalities were the main factors that influenced the reduction of 9.0% in average yield of the culture in Paraná, now estimated at 2,700 kg/hectares. The same situation of unfavorable weather indicated a decrease of the area to be harvested in Rio Grande do Sul of 1.2%, as well as the reduction in the average yield of 2.6%, being now estimated at 2,726 kg/hectare.

September 2015 estimate in relation to production obtained in 2014

Among the 26 major products, 15 registered positive percent changes in the production estimate in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (6.3%), peanuts in the shell - 2nd crop (7.2%), paddy rice (3.4%), oat grain (49.2%), potatoes - 1st crop (2.8%), coffea arabica (1.0%), sugarcane (2.9%), onion (5.0%), barley grain (22.7%), orange (9.5%) castor beans (130.8%), cassava (1.7%), corn grain - 2nd crop (13.9%), soybean grain (12.2%) and wheat grain (9.8%). Eleven products recorded negative changes: upland cottonseed (3.8%), potatoes - 2nd crop (1.5%), potatoes - 3rd crop (11.9%), cacao nuts (10.6%), coffea canephora (20.0%), bean seed - 1st crop (8.9%), bean seed - 2nd crop (3.8%), bean seed - 3rd crop (4.5%), corn - 1st crop (3.1%), sorghum grain (9.3%) and triticale grain (14.7%). The most significant increments in output, in absolute figures, above 2.0 million metric tonnes, in comparison with the 2014 harvest, were those of sugarcane (19,726,445 t), soybeans (10,500,454 t) and corn grain - 2nd crop (6,759,666 t).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from the IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.