The second estimate for the 2017 national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds totaled 224.2 million metric tons, 21.8% higher than the one obtained in 2016 (184.0 million metric tons). The estimate of the area to be harvested is of 60.3 million hectares, recording an increase of 5.7% compared with the harvested area in 2016 (57.1 million hectares). In relation to January's report, the output had a positive change of 1.3% while the area increased 0.8%. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together represented 93.0% of the estimated output and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, the area of soybeans expanded 2.1%, while the area of corn increased 11.1% and of rice, 2.0%. Concerning the output, the increases were of 13.2% for soybeans, 11.1% for rice and 39.6% for corn. The complete publication can be accessed here.

In this evaluation, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 24.3%, followed by Paraná (18.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.8%). These states, together, accounted for 60.3% of the expected national output. Other important states in terms of grain production were Goiás (10.1%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7.7%), Minas Gerais (5.9%), Bahia (3.6%), São Paulo (3.6%), Santa Caratina (2.9%) and Maranhão (2.0%), which are also among the group of ten biggest producers in the country.

Output estimate of February for 2017 surpasses January figure by 1.3%

In the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production of February the highlights were changes in the following estimates, versus results of January: coffee - canephora (3.8%), soybeans (1.3%), rice (1.0%), corn (0.5%) and cotton (-2.0%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED The estimated Brazilian output of cotton decreased by 2.0% in comparison with figures in the previous month, staying at 3,650,823 metric tons. The area to be planted was reduced by 0.8%, with a change from 956,254 hectares, whereas the average yield fell by 1.2%. The GCEA/BA reduced by 4.4% the output estimate of Bahia, the second main producer in the country, which recorded a decrease of 5.1% in comparison with the previous month. Goiás had its output estimate reduced by 26.0% by the GCEA/GO, which informed a decrease of the same percentage in the area planted with this crop. The GCEA/MT maintained the estimates of Mato Grosso, the main producer in the country, with a participation of 66.3% in the total amount to be harvested this year.

ARROZ (em casca) - The year 2017 remains presenting favorable climate conditions for the development of crops in the main producing states. That reflects expectations about increase in the national output of this cereal. The country is expected to produce a total 11,759,096 metric tons, in an area of 1,977,433 hectares, with an average yield of 5,947 kg/ha. In February, there was an increase of 1.0% in the estimated national output versus the previous month, mainly influenced by the increase of 1.0% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested in Rio Grande do Sul where, according to Emater/Ascar, most of the municipalities surpassed the estimated planting figures. As a result, the state is expected to reach 1,102,383 hectares of planted area. In the other areas of the country there was not significant change in the output. That ends up not affecting the figures for national output observed so far.

COFFEE BEAN (CANEPHORA) -The estimated production reached 540,189 thousand metric tons or 9 million 60-kg sacks, an increase of 3.8% over the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested increased 14.4% and 0.7%, respectively, whereas the average yield increased 3.0%. The GCEA/ES revised the estimates for Espírito Santo, the main national producer of coffea canephora (conillon). The estimated output is 339, 367 metric tons, with an increase of 6.1% versus the figure in the previous month, due to changes of 1.1% in the area to be harvested and of 4.9% in average yield. The planted area was revised to 312,255 hectares, with increase of 24.0%, which led to renewed interest of producers to invest in crops and to recover the production potential of coffee crops in comeing years. In 2015 and 2016, as a result of the drought which affected the main producing areas in the state, the crops faced, at different levels, several adverse conditions. Several crops had no change of recovery and needed replanting. After the restart of the rain period in the end of 2016, the technicians have evaluated the conditions of crops and improved month after month the output estimates for 2017.

CORN GRAIN - The estimated output of corn in 2017 remains on an upward trend, and reached, in February, the expected volume of 88,458,923 metric tons, with increase of 0.5% in relation to the previous month. The production of corn 1st and @nd crop contributed to the rise of the expected volume in 2017. The estimated output of corn - 1st crop hit 29,838,994 metric tons, an increase of 0.6%. This change was caused mainly by the expectation of biggest productivity in the South Region, the main poducer of summer crops with 43.7% of the total volume, and which led to increase of the average yield 1.2%, being possible to hit 7,672 kg/ha. Minas Gerais, which once more is expected to be the biggest producer of corn - 1st crop, had its areas positively reevaluated by 1.9% by the GCEA/MG, the main highlihjts being Conceição das Alagoas, in the area known as the Minas Triangle, and São João del Rei, in the Central Region, which affected production by 1.0%. The state is expected to produce 5,693,048 metric tons in the year In the 2nd crop, the Central West region is supposed to account for 65.7% of the national output, with 38 505 429 metric tons. This volume representes na increase of o.6% in the output of that region, in comparison with the estimate of the previous month. The GCEA/GO increased by 179 719 metric tons the output estimate of Goiás, due to an extension in planted áaea by 2.2%. This estimate, together with na increase of 98,500 hectares of planted área in Pará, as expected by the GCEA/PA, which also had na increase of 375,750 metric tons in its output estimate in relation to th previous month, contributed to the increase of 0.5% of the volume produced in the 2nd crop in the country, which hit 58,619,929 metric tons, representing a total 66.3% of the ntional output of this grain.

SOYBEAN (grain) - With the harvesting period almost over in the main producing state, there still an estimate for a record harvest in 2017. Th expected output is 108,404,791 metric tons, a figure 1.3% bigger than in January, which means an increase of 1,365,383 metric tons. The good climate conditions in the beginning of the year facilitated the growing of crops and, as a result, rose the average yield by 1.1%. Mato Grosso do Sul, which, by means of its GCEA, increased its output estimate by 6.5%, is expected to reach 8,262,000 metric tons, a new record in the state. With the current pace of crops and the maintenance of good climate conditions, the productivity of crops in the state rose 5.9% this month. The same was true for the states of Paraná (1.4%), Rio Grande do Sul (1.1%), and Goiás (2.1%). Besides the favoravble climate conditions, the high prices at the time of planting led to high investments in technology by producers, forming a production network in several states. Nevertheless, the expectation for a record harvest in Brazil and in the United States has influenced the price of the product in international stock markets. According to information from the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (CEPEA), the prices of soybeans for the last 30 days on the Paranaguá Port (PR), has changed from R$ 79.60 to R$ 72.50, a decrease of about 9.0%.

February estimate in relation to the 2013 output

Among the 26 main products, 16 recorded a rising percent change in the estimated production versus figures in the previous year: upland cottonseed (8.2%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (35.7%), paddy rice (11.1%), potatoes - 1st crop (4.9%), cacao nuts (28.4%), coffee beans (canephora) (15.3%), onions (0.2%), bean seed - 1st crop (40.1%), bean seed - 2nd crop (37.8%), castor beans (18.4%), corn grain - 1st crop (22.7%), corn graion - 2nd crop (50.2%), soybean grain (13.2%), sorghum grain (62.4%) and triticale grain (11.9%). Ten products recorded negative changes: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-2.3%), oat grain (-20.5%), potatoe 3rd crop (-16.1%), coffee bean - arabica (-16.7%), sugarcane (-1.0%), barley grain (-1.0%), bean grain - 3rd crop (-0.8%), orange (-7.4%), cassava (-12.5%) and wheat grain (-3.6%). The surveys about Cereals, legumes and oilseeds have been conducted in partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in October, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.