In April 2018, prices of the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries changed 1.56% in relation to the previous month, a higher result than that of March (1.08%). This was the highest increase since October 2017 (1.80%). Of the 24 activities, 21 presented positive price changes, just as in the previous month.

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The Producer Price Index (IPP) of the Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the evolution of the "factory gate" prices of products, without taxes and freight. It includes information by major economic categories: capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods (durable, semi-durable and non-durable).

In comparison with March 2018, the four largest changess were observed among the products of the following industrial activities: mining and quarrying industries (4.83%), petroleum refining and ethanol products (4.31%), other transportation equipment (3.04%) and wood (2.98%).

In terms of influence, in the comparison with March, the highlights of April were: refining of petroleum and ethanol products (0.49 pp), food (0.24 pp), mining and quarrying industries (0.20 pp) and basic metals (0.16 pp).

In April/2018, the cumulative index in the year (April/2018 vs. December/2017) reached 3.54%, against the 1.94% result in March/2018. The activities that, in April/2018, had the greatest changes in this indicator were: mining and quarrying (13.25%), other chemicals (7.03%), basic metals (6.18%) and wearing apparel and accessories (5.99%). In this indicator, the most influential sectors were: other chemical products (0.68 pp), petroleum refining and ethanol products (0.57 pp), mining and quarrying industries (0.52 pp) and basic metals (0.50 pp).

When comparing April 2018 to April 2017, the change was 8.03%, against 6.26% in the 12-month comparions in March 2018. The four largest changes occurred in petroleum refining and ethanol products ( 27.23%), mining and quarrying industries (23.91%), paper and pulp (17.05%) and other chemical products (12.15%).

In this indicator, the most influential sectors were petroleum refining and ethanol products (2.68 pp), other chemical products (1.16 pp), basic metals (0.94 pp) and mining and quarrying industries (0.89 pp).

In April 2018, the price change of 1.56% against March reflected among the major economic categories as follows: 1.90% in capital goods; 2.26% in intermediate goods; and 0.29% in consumer goods, with 0.14% being the change observed in durable consumer goods and 0.34% in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

The influence of the major economic categories on the general industry result (1.56%) was as follows: 0.16 pp for capital goods, 1.30 pp for intermediate goods and 0.10 pp for consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, 0.09 pp was due to the price changes observed in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods and 0.01 pp in durable consumer goods.

In April, the cumulative index in the year was 3.54%, with 3.26% being the change of capital goods (with influence of 0.28 pp), 5.57% of intermediate goods (3.17 pp) and 0.26% of consumer goods (0.09 pp). In the latter case, there was an influence of 0.13 pp on durable consumer goods and -0.04 pp on semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.

The accumulated in 12 months reached 8.03% in April, with the following variations: capital goods, 7.16% (0.61 pp); intermediate goods, 11.75% (6.59 pp); and consumer goods, 2.33% (0.82pp). The influence of durable consumer goods was 0.38pp and that of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods was 0.45 pp. 

Five sectors stand out in April

Mining and quarrying industries: in April, prices changed 4.83%, in relation to the previous month. As a result, the cumulative rate of the year was 13.25%. In comparison with April 2017, there was a change of 23.91% in the prices of the sector. The prices of "crude petroleum oil" in the monthly, cumulative and 12-month changes were highlighted.

Food products: for the third consecutive month, the prices of the sector presented a positive average change of 1.28%, in April. As a result, the cumulative figure for the year was 2.19%, the second consecutive positive result after a series with 14 negative results (the last positive, before March and April, was December 2017, 8.79%).

In comparison with the same month of the previous year, the most recent prices are still lower than those of April 2017, -0.58%. It should be noted that in this comparison, the result is negative for 11 months, but the lowest point occurred in September 2017, -7.57%.

Among the products with the greatest change are those related to "slaughtering and manufacturing of meat products", since, among the four most intense changes, three are from this group and, among the most intense influences, two. In the case of changes, the most important ones are meat ("fresh or cooled pork", "frozen beef" and "chicken giblets, fresh or cooled") and "cocoa butter"

In the case of influence, in addition to "frozen beef", which also appeared in as a highlight change, three other products are listed: "fresh or cooled beef", "soybean extraction residues" and "granulated sugar" (the only one with negative influence). The influence of the four products adds to 0.49 p.p., at 1.28%.

The food sector is highlighted in this analysis as the second largest influence on the result of the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries, 0.24 pp, at 1.56%, only behind "Petroleum refining and ethanol products "(0.49 pp) .The sector is also the largest contributor to the calculation of the index (19.65%).

Petroleum products and ethanol products: in April, industry prices changed by an average of 4.31%, the highest rate since November 2017 (5.89%). With the result of April, prices accumulated 4.96% in the year, compared to April 2017, when the cumulative index was -2.07%. In the last twelve months, the rate was 27.23%, the highest in the series. Among the products highlighted, both in terms of inflation and influence, only the price of "ethyl alcohol (anhydrous or hydrated)" had a negative change. Among those that had a positive chnage, the most significant products were: "diesel oil and other fuel oils" (almost 53%) and "motor gasoline" (around 16%).

It is worth mentioning that the emphasis given to the sector relates to the fact that it was the most influential sector in the results of the month against the previous month, 0.49 pp in 1.56%, and also in the result of the cumulative index in 12 months, 2.68 pp in 8.03%.

Other chemical products: the chemical industry in April had an average price change, compared to March, of 1.00%, completing eight consecutive months of increasing prices (17.12% in this period). As a result, there was a positive chnage of 7.03% in the year and 12.15% in the last 12 months, a situation quite different from that occurred in April 2017, when the cumulative index in 12 months reached 0.01%.

The results observed in the month are closely linked to the international results, to the costs of imported raw materials, to the prices of oil products, especially naphtha, to the reduction of the supply of some products by interruptions occurring in some production units, to the increase of the dollar in in relation to the real, which reached 3.9% in the month and, finally, to the results of price changes of the sector's own products.

Among those who had price increases in the month, the highlights were "styrene-butadiene rubber" and "superphosphates". On the other hand, prices of "unsaturated propene (propylene)" and "unsaturated polyester resin" fell. However, "unsaturated propene (propylene)" was the only highlight with a negative value among the four that most influenced the results in month-to-month comparisons.

The other products that most influenced the results in the month, in the cumulative index in the year and in the cumulative in the last 12 months had positive results: "fertilizers or fertilizers based on NPK", stood out in the month and in the cumulative index over the last 12 months; " Unsaturated ethylene (ethene)" and "polypropylene (PP)", which appear in the cumulative rate in 2018 and cumulative in the last 12 months; "HDPE", which appears in the month and cumulative of the year and finally "herbicides for agricultural use", a highlight in the three types of comparison.

Basic Metals: in relation to March 2018, there was a chnage of 2.00%, the seventh positive result in the last eight months (in January 2018 the change was -0.06%); therefore, the activity accumulated in the year a change of 6.18% and, in the last 12 months, 11.82% (18th consecutive positive change). An analysis of the series' index numbers indicates that, between December 2013 (base series) and April 2018, industry prices had a cumulative change of 38.53%; the third largest change among the activities.

It is interesting to note that the four products that most influenced the result in the month (change x contribution) also appear with the greatest changes; They are "other steel alloy  bars, other than stainless steel", "copper and copper alloys bars and coils", "unwrought aluminum alloys" and "carbon steel ingots, blocks, billets or plates". These four products represented 1.82pp of the change in the month, that is, just 0.18pp corresponds to the influence of the other 18 products.

The main influences in cumulative rates in the year and in 12 months were the same products: "nonalloyed unwrought aluminum", "hot- and cold-rolled coil of uncoated carbon steel" and finally "carbon steel ingots, blocks, billets or plates ".