The fourth estimate of 2018 for the national crops of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was 230.0 million metric tons, 4.4% less than in 2017 (240.6 million metric tons), a reduction of 10.6 million metric tons.

The estimate of the area to be harvested was 61.2 million hectares, an increase of only 28 739 hectares (or 0.0%) compared to the area harvested in 2017. In relation to March's estimate (229.3 million metric tons), production increased by 0.3%, or 712,428 metric tons, and the area fell by 0.1% or 45,024 hectares. In addition, rice, corn and soybeans accounted for 92.9% of the production estimate and 87.0% of the area to be harvested.

In relation to 2017, there was a 2.6% increase in the area of soybean and reductions of 7.3% in the corn area and 3.5% in the rice area. Soybean production is expected to hit a record high of 115.6 million metric tons, up 0.6 percent from last year, while corn and rice are expected to fall 13.0 percent and 6.8 percent, respectively. The complete publication, the time series and the presentation of the LSPA are on the right of this page.

Among the Major Regions, production was distributed as follows: Central-West (100.9 million metric tons), South (77.6 million metric tons), Southeast (23.1 million metric tons), Northeast (19.6 million metric tons) tonnes) and North (8.7 million metric tons).

April estimate for March 2017

In April, there were changes in the following production estimates in relation to March: beans 3rd crop (17.3%), barley (13.9%), coffea canephora (7.7%), cocoa (7.6%), oats (7.0%), coffea arabica (3.4%), sorghum (1.2%), wheat (1.0%), beans 1st crop (0.8%), corn 2nd crop (0.4%), beans 2nd crop (0.3%), rice (-1.4%), corn 1st crop (-3.2%) and banana (-3.4%).

PADDY RICE - Production was estimated at 11.6 million metric tons, down 1.4% over the previous month. Data were mainly influenced by Rio Grande do Sul, the largest cereal producer with 70.1% of the national total, which this month reduced its production estimate by 2.3%, totaling 8.1 million metric tons. In Tocantins, production estimates increased by 5.6% in relation to the previous month, with an increase of 2.2% in the planted area and a 3.3% increase in the average yield. In this state, rainfall has helped crops with water reservoirs for irrigation.

BANANA - Production was estimated at 7.0 million metric tons, a decline of 3.4% compared to March, with a fall of 3.3% in the area to be harvested. In the Northeast, Bahia revised down its production, which is expected to reach 912.0 thousand metric tons, with decrease of 17.4% in production and of 18.2% in the area to be harvested. Due to the long drought, some irrigation projects, such as Ponto Novo, stopped producing. São Paulo (-1.6%), Goiás (-14.7%) and Paraná (-12.9%) also reported a decline in production estimates this month. In São Paulo, the area to be harvested fell by 1.9%, with the average yield increasing by 0.4%. In Paraná, there was a decrease in both the planted area and the area to be harvested (6.2%) and the average yield (7.1%). In Goiás, there was only a decrease in the average yield (14.7%).

COCOANUT - The estimated production is 232.1 thousand metric tons, an increase of 7.6% in relation to March. In April, Bahia revised up its production estimate to 103.2 thousand metric tons, an increase of 19.4%. The average yield increased 33.3%, while the area to be harvested fell 10.4%. The revision is due to the positive expectations regarding the weather in the region.

COFFEE BEANS - Estimates of coffee production are of 3.3 million metric tons (55.3 million 60kg sacks), an increase of 4.4% compared to March, while the average yield increased 4.7 %. The rainny weather has benefited crops in the major producing states. Estimates of arabica production (2.5 million metric tons, or 42.1 million sacks) increased by 3.4%, reflecting the average yield, which increased by the same proportion. São Paulo updated its data, estimating a production of 358.9 thousand metric tons (6.0 million sacks), an increase of 32.1%, following the average yield (a high of 31.3%). In Bahia, the production estimate fell 2.8% due to yield revision. There was an increase of 27.2% in the area planted with arabica in the state, with 25.0 thousand hectares being added. However, most of these lands should begin to produce only in the coming years. Rio de Janeiro also reported a 6.7% drop in the estimate of arabica, thanks to a 4.4% reduction in yield and a 2.2% reduction in the area to be harvested.

For coffea canephora (conillon), the production estimate was 789.7 thousand metric tons, an increase of 7.7% in relation to March. The area to be harvested fell by 1.5%, however, the average yield increased by 9.3%. Rondônia, the second largest producer, with 146.2 thousand metric tons (2.4 million 60kg sacks), revised up its production, estimating an increase of 67.6%, reflecting the average yield (increase of 79.9%), while the area to be harvested fell 6.8%. State coffee growers have been gaining in productivity in recent years, thanks to increased investments in technology. In Bahia, the production estimate fell 3.0%, reflecting reductions of 2.2% in the area to be harvested and 0.8% in the average yield.

WINTER CEREALS (grains) - Wheat production is estimated at 5.6 million metric tons, up 1.0% over March. The average yield was raised by 0.9% and the planted area and area to be harvested grew 0.1%. In Paraná, the production estimate fell 0.6% thanks to a 0.6% drop in the area to be planted. In Rio Grande do Sul, production estimates increased by 3.4%, due to better climate expectations. In São Paulo, the production estimate fell 5.8%, with a proportional reduction of the area to be harvested with the cereal. For barley, the production estimate is 423.9 thousand metric tons, an increase of 13.9%. Estimates of production increased 14.9% in Paraná and 9.0% in Rio Grande do Sul, the main producers of the cereal. Regarding oats, the production estimate is 752.1 thousand metric tons, an increase of 7.0%. Estimates of production increased by 5.2% in Paraná and 16.2% in Rio Grande do Sul, the main producers of the cereal.

BEANS (grain) - Compared to March, the estimate for the planted area of ​​beans rose by 0.9% and the average yield, 2.1%, increasing production by 3.0%. Altogether, the country should harvest a harvest of 3.5 million metric tons. The 1st crop was estimated at 1.6 million metric tons, an increase of only 0.8% compared to March. Bahia was the highlight, with production expected to be reduced by 11.6%. This reduction was due to the planted area, which decreased by 8.3%, as well as by a 3.6% reduction in average yield. São Paulo, responsible for 12.8% of the quantity produced in this first crop, had a 20.7% increase in the production estimate, following increases of 18.0% in the planted area and 2.3% in the average yield. In Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, the estimate of the production of the 1st crop beans declined 9.1% and 4.1%, respectively, due to the lack of rainfall. The 2nd crop was estimated at 1.3 million metric tons, an increase of 0.3% against March, following the planted area, which rose 0.5% while the average yield fell 0.2%. In April, production increases were estimated in Mato Grosso do Sul (23.5%), Rio Grande do Sul (7.1%) and Alagoas (7.3%) and falls in Bahia (0.9%), Santa Catarina (0.4%) and São Paulo (22.5%). Regarding the 3rd crop, the estimate was 17.3% higher in production than in March. Altogether, the country must produce 585.9 thousand metric tons in this crop. São Paulo was the state with the greatest influence on this result, with estimates indicating a 94.7% increase in planted area, 28.7% in average yield and 150.4% in production. In the Federal District, a 45.1% decline in production was estimated, due to reductions of 41.9% in planted area and 5.5% in average yield.

CORN (grain) - The April estimate for production was 86.6 million metric tons, down 0.7% from March. Negative adjustments in the estimates of production (3.2%), planted area (2.9%) and average yield (0.3%) in the 1st crop were responsible for the decrease of the total corn crop, as increases in the estimates of production (0.4%), planted area (0.3%) and average yield (0.2%) were observed for the 2nd crop. The decrease of 860.2 thousand metric tons estimated for the 1st crop was partially offset by the increase of 250.8 thousand metric tons in the 2nd crop, resulting in a decrease of 609.4 thousand metric tons in the 2018 crop. In the summer harvest, producers prioritized the planting of soybeans, thanks to better profitability expectations. Revisions of production in São Paulo (-382.9 thousand metric tons), Rio Grande do Sul (-353.1 thousand metric tons) and Santa Catarina (-206.7 thousand metric tons) were the main causes of the decrease of the estimates of the 1st crop in April, compared to March. For the second corn crop, São Paulo stood out with an increase of 775.5 thousand metric tons of grains. Mato Grosso do Sul had the largest drop in production, with 540.0 thousand metric tons.

SOYBEANS (grain) - The estimated soybean production in April 2018 reached a record high of 115.6 million metric tons. It was 1.0% higher than the one estimated in March and 0.6% higher than the previous record of 2017. As a whole, they were 1.1 million metric tons more than the March estimate and 0.6 million metric tons more than 2017. IN the April/March comparison, the greatest high occurred in Mato Grosso do Sul (810.0 thousand metric tons, 9.1%), São Paulo (480.1 thousand metric tons, 16.9%) and Goiás (100.6 thousand metric tons, 0.9%), while the largest reductions were in Rio Grande do Sul (428.9 thousand metric tons, 2.4%) and Paraná (45.3 thousand metric tons, 0.2%). The record harvest can be attributed to the 2.6% increase in the area compared to 2017, considering that the average yield of 3,324 kg/ha in 2018 was 2.0% lower than in 2017 (3,392 kg/ha). Although rainfalls at the beginning of the 2018 crop were delayed, there were no major climatic problems in the Central-West and in the "MATOPIBA" during the legume cycle.

SORGO (grain) - Estimates of sorghum production are of 2.4 million metric tons, an increase of 1.2% compared to March. The data reflect the revision of São Paulo production, which in April was 99.0 thousand metric tons (a high of 37.2 thousand metric tons), or 60.2% more than in March. The estimated production of Bahia, 82.4 thousand metric tons, fell 15.3%, following the average yield that fell 14.9% due to water restrictions. As a whole, the state estimated a production of 36.0 thousand metric tons. In the Federal District, there was an 8.5% decline in the production estimate, with the average yield decreasing 18.1%.

March estimate for production in 2017

Among the 26 products surveyed, 18 presented a positive change in production estimates in relation to the previous year, as shown in the table below.