March estimate in relation to February 2017

The following output estimates stood out in March in relation to February: upland cotton (2.8%), beans - 2nd crop (2.6%), banana (2.0%), corn - 2nd crop (1.7%), soybeans (1.2%), sugarcane (0.4%), corn - 1st crop (0.2%), beans - 1st crop (0.1%), beans - 3rd crop (-1.6%), wheat (-9.1%) and cashew nuts (-10.4%).

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The third production estimate of cotton was of 4.4 million tonnes, representing an increase of 2.8% in relation to the February forecast. The planted area and the area to be harvested grew 2.2%. The average yield was estimated at 4,012 kg/ha, an increase of 0.6% over the previous month. An area of 1.1 million hectares of cotton should be planted in Brazil as a whole. The output estimate in Mato Grosso, the largest producer in Brazil and accounting for 67.2% of the total to be produced, was of 3.0 million tonnes, 0.9% higher than the last estimate. The planted area rose 0.7% and the average yield was expected to increase 0.2%.

BANANA - The output estimate of 7.2 million tonnes was 2.0% higher than last month. The planted area reached 530.8 thousand hectares, representing an increase of 1.1%, while the average yield of 14,633 kg/ha increased 1.3%. This month, the production estimate in the Northeast increased 4.8%, highlighted by Pernambuco (26.7%, an increase of 86.2 thousand tonnes) and Rio Grande do Norte (39.1%, an increase of 58.1 thousand tonnes). In Ceará, the production estimate retreated 7.7% or less 32.2 thousand tonnes.

SUGARCANE - The estimate of the national output of sugarcane was of 675.5 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4% in relation to the previous month. Rainfall in the first quarter favored the development of sugarcane crops in the Center-South region, where most of the national production is concentrated. This growth was due to the productivity, which increased in the same proportion. Mato Grosso, Alagoas and Espírito Santo increased their estimates of planted area. On the other hand, the increases in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul were due to the improved productivity. The states of Pernambuco and Rio Grande do Norte reduced their output, due to the smaller planted area.

CASHEW NUTS - The estimated production of 133.2 thousand tonnes declined 10.4% over February. The planted area shrank 8.0% and the area to be harvested, 9.3%. The average yield also reduced by 1.2%. Ceará, the largest producer of cashew nuts with 69.4 thousand tonnes, increased 1.3% in relation to the previous month, being now responsible for 52.1% of the total to be harvested in 2018.

BEAN SEED - Compared with February, the estimate for the planted area rose 1.1%, rising the production by 0.8%. The average yield reduced 0.5%. Considering the three harvests, the largest producers in this survey were Paraná (20.6% of the national output), Minas Gerais (16.9%) and Goiás (10.0%).

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1.6 million tonnes, an increase of noly 0.1% against the output estimate in February. Pernambuco stood out, as its expected production rose 11.3%, due to the increase of 17.8% in the planted area. The average yield fell 9.4%. Mato Grosso registered a decrease of 41.0% in the production, caused by the reduction of 46.0% in the planted area. Nevertheless, this state has only 8.4 thousand hectares cropped with beans - 1st crop. The average yield rose 9.1%.

The second crop of beans was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, an increase of 2.6% over the February estimate, following the planted area, which rose 3.0%. The average yield was reduced by 0.6%. Pernambuco and Alagoas also increased their production estimates by 5.7% and 13.0%, respectively, due to the increase in the planted area, which was influenced by the return of rainfall. The output estimate in Goiás declined 5.5%, due to the drop of 6.7% in the planted area. The average yield grew 1.4%.

Concerning the third crop of beans, a reduction of 1.6% was expected in relation to February. Goiás exerted the biggest influence in this result, as the estimates pointed out a reduction of 3.0% in the planted area, 1.9% in the average yield and 4.1% in the production. In spite of contributing with just 0.6% to the third crop, Paraná registered a reduction of 45.7% in the estimated output, in accordance with the reduction in the planted area (-46.0%).

CORN GRAIN - The forecast of the total harvest of corn (87.2 million tonnes) pointed to a reduction of 12.4% compared with the previous year.

The expected production for the first crop was of 26.5 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 14.7% over 2017. The planted area retreated 7.1%, adding up to 5.3 million hectares. The average yield (5.027 kg/ha) fell 9.9%. The estimated output in Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina remained stable between February and March. In the same period, Paraná reduced by 4.0%, adding up to 2.9 million tonnes, due to the negative revisions of 1.3% in the planted area and of 2.7% in the average yield.

The production estimate for the second crop was of 60.7 million tonnes, representing a rise of 1.7% over the previous month. The planted area was of 11.4 million hectares, representing an increase of 0.7%, whereas the average yield was of 5,323 kg/ha, an increase of 0.9%. In relation to February, the estimated output in Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and São Paulo remained stable. Accounting for nearly 40.0% of the Brazilian production of corn - 2nd crop, Mato Grosso rose its estimated output by 3.7%, due to the improved productivity (3.1%). Even with the late cropping, rainfall has been favoring the crops.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - The estimated production of 114.5 million tonnes rose 1.2% in March over February, getting closer to the 2017 record of 115.0 million tonnes. Altogether, they were 1.4 million tonnes more than the February estimate. The production estimate in the Northeast rose 6.2%, highlighted by the rises of 8,5% in Bahia, which reported an increase of 396.8 thousand tonnes over February, expecting to reach 5.1 million tonnes; of 4.9% in Piauí (increase of 111.8 thousand tonnes, expecting to reach 2.4 million tonnes) and of 3.4% in Maranhão, which reported an increase of 95.8 thousand tonnes, expecting to reach 2.9 million tonnes.

Mato Grosso stood out in the Central-West, by increasing 1.6% its estimated production over February. Producing 31.2 million tonnes, this state should account for 27.2% of the total production in 2018. The estimated production in Goiás (11.5 million tonnes) rose 2.6% and, in Mato Grosso do Sul, the increase was of 1.9%, consolidating an output of 8.9 million tonnes.

Accounting for 34.5% of the national overall, the estimate in the South Region retreated 0.4% in March in relation to the previous month. Paraná reported a reduction of 0.9% in its estimated production. The output in Paraná should reach 19.3 million tonnes.

WHEAT GRAIN - The estimate of the production of wheat (5.6 million tonnes) retreated 9.1% over the previous month. The planted area and the area to be harvested declined 13.5%, while the average yield increased 5.1%. The unattractive value of the sack of the product, low liquidity and recent adversities with the weather have been affecting the intention to plant wheat in the South Region, which accounted for 85.5% of the total harvested in 2017. Accounting for 52.2% of the total produced in 2017, Paraná, the largest producer in Brazil, reported a decline of 14.3% in the estimate production this month, due to the retraction of 22.8% in the estimates of planted area and area to be harvested. Only the average yield was revised upwards (10.9%). Despite the decreasing interest in cropping winter cereals, the producers remained optimistic regarding the weather in 2018.

March estimate in relation to the output in 2017

Among the 26 products surveyed, half of them recorded a positive change in the estimated production in relation to the previous year, as seen in the table below.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions - COMEAs and/or Regional Commissions - COREAs. The latter are consolidated at state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups - GCEAs and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics - CEPAGRO. This Commission is formed by representatives from the IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply - MAPA.

Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.