In February 2018, prices in mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries changed 0.41% in relation to January, a lower result than that of the comparison between January and December (0.47%). Of the 24 activities, 21 had positive price change, against 13 of the previous month. The complete publication and support material of the IPP can be accessed on the right column of this page.

The Producer Price Index (IPP) of the Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing Industries measures the evolution of the "factory gate" prices of products, without taxes and freight. It includes information by major economic categories: capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods ( durable, semi-durable and non-durable).

The four biggest changes of February/2018 occurred among the products of the following industrial activities: petroleum refining and ethanol products (-3.15%), basic metals (2.51%), mining and quarrying industries (2.25%) and non-metallic minerals (2.03%).

In terms of influence, in the comparison between February 2018 and January 2018 (0.41%), the highlights were petroleum refining and ethanol products (-0.37 pp), basic metals (0.20 pp), food products (0.18 pp) and other chemicals (0.11 pp).

In February, the cumulative indicator of the year (against February/17) reached 0.89%, against 0.47% in January. Among the activities that had the greatest percentage changes, the highlights are: manufacture of wearing apparel and accessories (4.10%), mining and quarrying industries (3.50%), beverages (-3.38%) and other chemicals (3.05%). In this indicator, the sectors of highest influence were: other chemicals (0.29 p.p.), basic metals (0.20 p.p.), motor vehicles (0.16 p.p.) and mining and quarrying (0.14 p.p.).

Comparing with February 2017, the price change hit 5.23%, against 4.33% in January 2018. The four major price changes came from mining and quarrying industries (19.16%), pulp and paper (15.96%), petroleum refining and ethanol products (13.81%) and other chemicals (10.44%). In this indicator, the sectors of higher influence were: petroleum refining and ethanol production (1.45 p.p.), other chemical products (0.98 p.p.), food products (-0.82 p.p.) and basic metals (0.77 p.p.).

In February 2018, the price change of 0.41% against January reflected in the Major Economic Categories like this: 0.46% in capital goods; 0.87% in intermediate goods; and -0.36% in consumer goods, of which 0.09% is the change seen in durable consumer goods and -0.51%, in semi and non-durable consumer goods.

The influence of the major economic categories in the general result was as follows: 0.04 p.p. of capital goods, 0.50 p.p. of intermediate goods and -0.13 p.p. of consumer goods. In the case of consumer goods, -0.13 p.p. was due to price changes observed in semi and non-durable consumer goods and 0.01 p.p. in durable consumer goods.

As to the cumulative index over the year (current month against December last year), price changes of industry increased 0.89%, until February: 0.74% in capital goods (with influence of 0.06 p.p.), 1.74% in intermediate goods (0.99 p.p.) and -0.48% in consumer goods (-0.17 p.p.). In the latter case, the result was influenced at 0.11 p.p. by durable consumer goods and at -0.28, by semi- and non-durable consumer goods.

In February, the cumulative index over 12 months was 5.23%, with the following changes: capital goods, 5.48% (0.47 p.p.); intermediate goods, 7.70% (4.32 p.p.); and consumer goods, 1.25% (0.44 p.p.), but the influence of durable consumer goods was 0.42 p.p. and of semi- and non-durable consumer goods, of 0.02 p.p.

Six sectors were highlights in January

Mining and quarrying industries: in February, the average change of prices in the sector was 2.25% - the third consecutive positive change, accumulating a rise of 8.25% in those three months (December 2017 to February 2018). In 2018, prices changed 3.50%, opposite to what occurred in February 2017, when the cumulative index was -3.11%. In the comparison with the same month a year ago, in February the rate was 19.16%, the biggest rate since November 2017 (27.55%).

Two main products in terms of weight in the calculation of the sector had distinct trends: "iron ores", with a positive price change, and "crude petroleum oil", with a negative one. Both moves are coherent with the commodities' behavior in the international market.

The highlight of the sector is because it is among the greatest changes in the three comparisons: against the previous month (third biggest); against December last year, cumulative (second biggest); and against the same month a year ago (the biggest). Besides, it was the fourth sector in terms of influence in the cumulative result of the year (0.14 p.p. in 0.89%).

Food products: after two months, the price change seen in February (in comparison against January) was positive: 0.95%. This result was only surpassed in July 2016 (1.74%). It is worth highlighting that in the 20 results between July 2016 and February 2018, nine were positive and 11 negative. Despite the positive result, the cumulative index in the year kept negative, -0.13%. It is the 14th consecutive month of negative results in this indicator, although that of February was less intense. In the comparison between 2018 and 2017, the result was -3.98%. In that case, it is the ninth consecutive negative result, but, of them, the change of February is only sharper than that of June 2017, -1.97%.

February data are influenced by quite clear movements: on the one hand, the lower production in the dairies and the undersupply of soybeans in Argentina explain to a great extent the effects on the prices of "residue of soybean oil extraction" and "sterilized milk/UHT/long life milk"; on the other hand, a lower demand made both prices of "granulated sugar" and “animal feed and supplements" decrease in the period. With two prices up and two down, the influence of the four products in highlight, in the comparison with the previous month, was 1.53 p.p., in 0.95%, i. e., -0.58 p.p. was the net influence of the other 39 products of the sector.

The highlight of the sector is due to the influence of the monthly comparison (the third one, 0.18 p.p. in 0.41%) and in the comparison with the same month a year ago (the third one, -0.82 p.p. in 5.23%).

Petroleum refining and ethanol products: the prices of petroleum derivatives and "ethyl alcohol (anhydrous or hydrated)" changed, on average, -3.15%, in the comparison between February against January. As in January the change had been 3.15%, those results almost offset each other. All in all, the cumulative index in the year stood at -0.10%, the first negative result since July 2017 (-3.17%). In the comparison with February 2017, the most recent prices are 13.81% higher, a lower result than all those from January 2018 to October 2017 - that of September 2017 was 11.40%.

Among the products of greatest influence on the monthly result, all of them are petroleum derivatives and only one of them, "aviation kerosene", increased. However, in the annual comparison, all changes of the most influential products are positive. The products are the same, except for "aviation kerosene", which was replaced by "naphthas".

The sector was the first one in terms of influence and change in the comparison with January (-0.37 p.p. in 0.41%), and the third in change and first in influence in the comparison with February 2017 (1.45 p.p. in 5.23%).

Other chemical products: the prices of the chemistal industry in February rose 1.12% in relation to January, achieving six months of highs in a row. As a result, the cumulative index in the last 12 months stood at 10.44%, differently from the -8.90% recorded in February 2017.

Considering the influence, in the comparison with the previous month, and the cumulative index in the year, three products are repeated and are also the products with a greater weight in the chemistry sector: "NPK fertilizers and manure", with a negative result, "unsaturated ethylene (ethene)" and "polypropylene (PP)" with positive results - the last two were highlights among the products with a higher impact in the last 12 months. The other highlights in influence were "unsaturated propene (propylene)", in month against previous month and in cumulative in 12 months, and, finally, "herbicides for agricultural use", in the cumulative in the year.

Of note is the fact that the four products of biggest influence in month against previous month - "NPK fertilizers and manure", "unsaturated ethylene (ethene)", "herbicides for agricultural use" and polypropylene (PP)" - had an impact on the net positive result of 0.54 p.p. in the change of 1.12% in the month, i. e., the other 28 products contributed positively with 0.58 p.p.

Basic metals: in the comparison with January 2018, there was a change of 2.51%, the fifth positive in the last six months and the highest rise among all the activities analyzed by the IPP. Thus, the activity accumulated a change of 9.94% in the last 12 months (16th positive consecutive change in this type of indicator) and of 2.44% in the cumulative index of the year. Between December 2013 and February 2018, the prices of the sector had an average high of 33.65%.

Coils were the products of highest increases, considering the month against previous month results and the cumulative index of the year. Among the most influential products in the month, there are, besides "carbon steel hot-rolled coil, uncoated" and "carbon steel cold-rolled coil, uncoated", "unwrought non-alloy aluminum" and also "carbon steel ingots, blocks, billets or plates". Those four products contributed with 1.90 p.p. in the month, i. e., 0.61 p.p. is the influence of the other 18 products.

The sector's behavior has been influenced by the combination of the steel product groups and non-ferrous materials (copper and aluminum), which have different price behaviors. The first group, that of steel, is affected by the surplus of the steel capacity in the world (despite the several production cuts in China, together with price rises) and by the fluctuation of the iron ore values, a product that has been recovering prices since the second half of 2017. As to the second group - non-ferrous materials -, prices usually have results linked to the international stock markets.

Motor vehicles: in February, the price changes in the sector was of 0.24%, in relation to January. That was the sixth high in a row and the 18th of the last 19 months (just August 2017 had a negative price change, of -0.08%). As a result, together with January’s result (1.27%), the cumulative change of the year reached 1.51%.

Besides being one of the sectors of biggest weight in the calculation of the general index, with 11.32% (just behind the food sector, with 19.65% and petroleum refining and ethanol products, with 11.80%), the activity of motor vehicles stood out, presenting the third highest influence in the cumulative index of the year (0.16 p.p. in 0.89%).

The four products of biggest influence in the monthly index had a positive impact in February: "flex-fuel, gasoline or ethanol passenger car with any engine power output", "gearbox for motor vehicles", "bodies for buses" and "engine parts for motor vehicles" - the first and last products are among those with the highest weights in the sector. The influence of those four products that mostly exerted an impact on the monthly change was of 0.17 p.p., i. e., the other 21 products of the activity contributed just with 0.07 p.p.

In relation to the long-run indicators (cumulative in the year and in the last 12 months), all the four products of greatest influence also had a negative impact, three were shared by both indicators: "flex-fuel, gasoline or ethanol passenger car with any engine power output", "diesel truck with load capacity above 5t" and "chassis with engine for buses or for trucks". All of them are among the four products of biggest weight in the activity.

In relation to the cumulative of the year, there is also the product "engine parts for motor vehicles" (presenting the third bigger weight in the sector). Conversely, in the cumulative index over 12 months, the highlight is the product "tractor-truck for trailers and semi-trailers". This and further information can be seen in the table below.