In January 2018, the prices of mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries changed by 0.43% against those of a month ago, with a result above that of the December/November 2017 comparison (0.42%). A total 12 of the 24 activities surveyed recorded positive price changes, against 16 in the previous month.  The complete publication and the complementary material for the IPP are available in the column on the right. 

The Producer Price Index (IPP) measures the evolution of “factory gate” prices, excluded taxes or freight, for 23 manufacturing industry sectors, and it presents information on major economic categories: capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods (durable and semi-durable). 

Against figures of December 2017, the four main changes were observed among products from the following industrial activities: manufacure of wearing apparel and accessories (4.05%), petroleum refining and alcohol products (3.15%), non-metallic minerals (-2.74%) and printing (-2.65%).

In terms of influence, in the January 2018/December 2017 comparison, the highlights were: petroleum refining and alcohol products (0.36 p.p.), food products (-0.20 p.p.), other chemicals (0.18 p.p.) and motor vehicles (0.14 p.p.).

In the comparison with January 2017, the change of prices was 4.28%, versus 4.15% in December 2017. The four main price changes occurred in petroleum refining and alcohol products (16.01%), pulp and paper (14.25%), mining and quarrying (10.66%) and basic metals (10.44%). The most influential sectors in this comparison were: petroleum refining and alcohol products (1.69 p.p.), food products (-1.29 p.p.), other chemicals (0.84 p.p.) and basic metals (0.79 p.p.).

In January 2018, the change of 0.43% in comparison with December 2017 had the following effects on the major economic categories the following way: 0.14% in capital goods; 0.84% in intermediate goods; and -0.16% in consumer goods, with a change of 1.07% observed in durable consumer goods and of -0.54% in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods.  

The influence of major economic categories in the result of overall industry (0.43%) was: capital goods, 0.01 p.p., intermediate goods, 0.48 p.p.; and consumer goods, -0.05 p.p. In the case of consumer goods, -0.14 p.p. was relative to the price changes in semi and non-durable goods and of 0.09 p.p. in durable consumer goods.

In January, the cumulative index in 12 months was 4.28%, with the following changes: capital goods, 4.57% (0.39 p.p.); intermediate goods, 6.34% (3.55 p.p.); and consumer goods, 0.96% (0.34 p.p.), being the contribution of durable consumer goods, 0.39 p.p., and that of semi and non-durable goods, -0.05 p.p.

Five sectors stand out in January 

Food products: in January 2018, the prices of the sector changed by -1.08%, in comparison with December 2017. Against the same month a year ago, the change was -6.18%, a lower result than in the cumulative figure of 2017 (-7.28%). The relevance of this sector resulted from its influence on the monthly and on the annual result.

From the perspective of M/M-1, the positive change was observed in “chocolate candies and cacao chocolates”; in terms of influence, in “residue of soybean oil extraction”. In relation to the other highlights, except for “crystallized sugar”, all the products are meat (beef and pork), all of them with negative change (including “crystalized sugar”). January is usually marked by fall of prices after the December festivities. The influence of four highlights amounted to -0.59 p.p. (-1.08%).

Petroleum refining and alcohol products: the average change of prices in the sector, in the comparison January 2018/December 2017, was 3.15%, the sixth positive result in a row. Against January 2017, the change was 16.01%, below the end of 2017 (18.70%), but a result 10.94 percentage points below the average of the series (5.07%) which started in December 2010.

The highlight in this sector occurred because it got the first position (in the case of the change in M/M-12 and of the influence on M/M-1 and on M/M-12) or the second position (in the January 2018/December 2017 comparison) in the four indicators calculated. 

Other chemicals: the average change of prices in January against December was 1.84%, with a cumulative increase of 9.04% in the last 12 months - an opposite trend to that of January 2017, when the cumulative index in 12 months was -11.10%. The recovery of prices is directly related to international results, the cost of imported raw material, the price of petroleum products, mainly of naphtha (with significant increase in the last 12 months) and the result of price changes of products in the sector itself, such as “ammonium” and “caustic soda”.

The four most influentail products in the month-on-month comparison (“non-saturated ethylene (etheno)”, “herbicides for use in agriculture”, “caustic soda” and “inseticides for juse in agriculture”) influenced the positive result by 1.29 p.p., in a total 1.84% in the month, that is, the 28 products contributed positively with 0.55 p.p.

Basic metals: the comparison of prices in January 2018 versus those of December 2017, there was a change of -0.09%, interrupting a series of four positive results. In the annual comparison, the recorded change was 10.44%.

Considering the most influential products in the month-on-month comparison, there were two positive results: “cold-rolled carbon steel coil, uncoated” and “cold-rolled carbon steel coil, uncoated”. Negative changes came from: “non-alloy unwrought aluminum” and “carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates”. These four products represented 0.72 percentage points of change in the month, that is, 0.63 percentage points and influenced the other 18 products.

Motor vehicles: in January, the change observed in the sector was 1.27%, in comparison with the immediately previous month. That was the 17^th positive change in the last 18 months (August was the only month to record negative price change, in 2017, 0.08%). The result of this month is the highest since May 2017, when there was a change of 1.35%. As a result, the cumulative change in the last 12 months reached 5.11%. In January 2017, the indicator was 2.47%.

Besides being one of the most influential sectors in the calculation of the general index, with a contribution of 11.34%, only second to the sectors of food products (19.54%) and petroleum refining and alcohol products (12.23%), motor vehicles was also a highlight, among all the sectors surveyed, for having recorded the fourth biggest influence on the monthly change (0.14 p.p. in 0.43%).