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Industry rises in 8 of 14 places surveyed in December, advances in 12 of 15 places in cumulative in 2017

February 08, 2018 09h00 AM | Last Updated: February 15, 2018 12h45 PM

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the national industrial output increased 2.8% from November to December 2017 and eight out of 14 places surveyed registered positive rates in this period. The biggest advances were recorded in Rio Grande do Sul (6.8%) and Amazonas (6.2%). Ceará (4.9%), São Paulo (3.0%), Santa Catarina (1.6%), Paraná (1.6%), Rio de Janeiro (1.0%) and Minas Gerais (0.2%) were the other places that posted positive indexes. On the other hand, Goiás (-2.7%) reported the biggest drop this month. The other negative rates were registered in Pará (-1.8%), Pernambuco (-1.8%), Espírito Santo (-1.7%), Bahia (-1.5%) and the Northeast Region (-0.2%). The rise was more widespread in the cumulative index in the year: 12 out of 15 places expanded in 2017, highlighted by the two-digit growth in Pará (10.1%), whereas Bahia (-1.7%), Pernambuco (-0.9%) and the Northeast Region (-0.5%) were the only ones to record drops in the cumulative rate in 2017.

Short-term Indicators of Industry – Regional Results - December 2017
Places  Variação (%)
December 2017 / November 2017* December 2017 / December 2016 Cumulative January-December Cumulative in the Last 12 Months
Amazonas 6.2 10.9 3.7 3.7
Pará -1.8 6.1 10.1 10.1
Northeast Region -0.2 -2.3 -0.5 -0.5
Ceará 4.9 -0.1 2.2 2.2
Pernambuco -1.8 -2.5 -0.9 -0.9
Bahia -1.5 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7
Minas Gerais 0.2 -1.5 1.5 1.5
Espírito Santo -1.7 -5.1 1.7 1.7
Rio de Janeiro 1.0 7.2 4.2 4.2
São Paulo 3.0 10.1 3.4 3.4
Paraná 1.6 -0.5 4.4 4.4
Santa Catarina 1.6 3.9 4.5 4.5
Rio Grande do Sul 6.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Mato Grosso - 5.8 3.9 3.9
Goiás -2.7 4.0 3.7 3.7
Brazil 2.8 4.3 2.5 2.5

Still in the seasonally-adjusted series, the quarterly moving average for the whole industry rose 1.2% in the period ended in December against the level of the previous month. In regional terms, eight places registered positive rates, highlighted by Rio Grande do Sul (2.7%), Amazonas (2.2%), Espírito Santo (1.5%), Ceará (1.3%), Santa Catarina (1.1%) and São Paulo (1.0%). On the other hand, Bahia (-1.5%) and Goiás (-1.0%) recorded the biggest drops.

Compared with the same month a year ago, the national industry increased 4.3% in December 2017, posting positive rates in eight out of 15 places surveyed. Amazonas (10.9%) and São Paulo (10.1%) reported the highest rises, mainly leveraged by the growth in the sectors of other transportation equipment, computer equipment, electronic and optical products in the former place; and of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, food products and basic metals, in the latter. Rio de Janeiro (7.2%), Pará (6.1%) and Mato Grosso (5.8%) also rose above the national average (4.3%), whereas Goiás (4.0%), Santa Catarina (3.9%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.3%) were the other places that rose this month.

Conversely, Espírito Santo (-5.1%) recorded the biggest drop this month, pressed, at a great extent, by mining and quarrying industries (crude petroleum oil and natural gas), pulp, paper and paper products (pulp) and non-metallic mineral products (Portland cement). The other negative figures were reported in Pernambuco (-2.5%), the Northeast Region (-2.3%), Bahia (-1.8%), Minas Gerais (-1.5%), Paraná (-0.5%) and Ceará (-0.1%).

Pace of production in quarter increases in 10 of 15 places surveyed

In the quarterly analysis, the industry average increased 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2017, the highest positive rate since the second quarter of 2013 (5.1%) and maintained the positive trend of the first three quarter of 2017: January-March (1.3%), April-June (0.4%) and July-September (3.2%), all of them compared with the same period of the previous year.

The increase in the pace of production registered between the third (3.2%) and the fourth quarter of 2017 (4.9%) was registered in ten out of 15 places surveyed, highlighted by Goiás (from 2.2% to 10.6%), Rio de Janeiro (from 1.7% to 7.8%), Mato Grosso (from 6.9% to 11.8%), Amazonas (from 3.8% to 7.5%), Santa Catarina (from 4.2% to 7.2%) and São Paulo (from 5.3% to 8.1%). On the other hand, Bahia (from 6.8% to -0.6%) and Paraná (from 6.8% to 2.4%) recorded the biggest reductions between the two periods.

In 2017, industry grows in 12 of 15 places surveyed

In the cumulative rate for the January-December 2017 period against the same period last year, the growth of the national output reached 12 out of 15 places surveyed, highlighted by the two-digit advance registered in Pará (10.1%). Santa Catarina (4.5%), Paraná (4.4%), Rio de Janeiro (4.2%), Mato Grosso (3.9%), Amazonas (3.7%), Goiás (3.7%) and São Paulo (3.4%) also grew above the industry average (2.5%), while Ceará (2.2%), Espírito Santo (1.7%), Minas Gerais (1.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (0.1%) were the other places that recorded positive positive results.

In these places, the greater dynamism was particularly influenced by the expansion in the manufacture of capital goods (especially those for the transportation, construction and agricultural sectors); of intermediate goods (iron ore, petroleum, pulp, steel industry and soybean extraction derivatives); of durable consumer goods (cars and brown goods); and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (footwear, textiles and wearing apparel).

Conversely, Bahia (-1.7%) posted the biggest drop in the year, mainly pressed by the negative behavior of the sectors of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (diesel fuel, fuel oil, naphtha for petrochemistry and motor gasoline) and of basic metals (copper and copper-alloy bars, profiles and rebars). The Northeast Region (-0.5%) and Pernambuco (-0.9%) also fell in this period.

In relation to the cumulative index in the last 12 months, the growth of 2.5% in December was the highest one since July 2011 (2.8%). In regional terms, 12 out of 15 places surveyed registered positive rates this month, yet only six increased the pace compared with the November index: Goiás (from 2.8% to 3.7%), Mato Grosso (from 3.1% to 3.9%), São Paulo (from 2.7% to 3.4%), Bahia (from -2.4% to -1.7%), Amazonas (from 3.2% to 3.7%) and Rio de Janeiro (from 3.7% to 4.2%). Meanwhile, Pernambuco (from 0.0% to -0.9%), Espírito Santo (from 2.3% to 1.7%), Paraná (from 4.9% to 4.4%), Pará (from 10.5% to 10.1%), Ceará (from 2.6% to 2.2%) and Minas Gerais (from 1.9% to 1.5%) recorded the major reductions in the pace between the two periods.