The third forecast for the 2018 harvest showed that the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds in 2018 was estimated at 224.3 million tonnes, 6.8% smaller than the 2017 harvest. This reduction was mainly due to the smaller output forecasted for corn (15.0 million tonnes) and soybeans (2.7 million tonnes). The comparison with the previous forecast pointed out an increase of 4.8 million tonnes (2.2%), due to the good climate conditions reported in December, which caused positive impacts, particularly in the production of soybeans (3.8%), corn - 1st crop (3.1%) and rice (2.1%).

The December estimate for the national harvest of grains in 2017 added up to 240.6 million tonnes, 29.5% (54.8 million tonnes) bigger than in 2016 (185.8 million tonnes). The area to be harvested (61.2 million hectares) rose 7.2% against 2016 (57.1 million hectares). Compared with the November report (241.9 million tonnes), the estimated production decreased 0.5%.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, represented 94.4% of the output estimate and accounted for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2016, the area for soybeans increased 2.2%, the area for corn, 19.3% and the area for rice, 4.3%. Concerning production, soybeans rose 19.4%, corn increased 55.2% and rice, 17.2%. This information came from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production - LSPA. Click here to access the complete publication.

In the 2017 survey, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains with a contribution of 26.3%, followed by Paraná (17.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (14.7%). These states together accounted for 58.3% of the national forecast.

For 2018, third projection estimates harvest 6.8% smaller than 2017

In this third forecast, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 224.3 million tonnes for 2018, 6.8% smaller than the total obtained in the crop harvested in 2017. This reduction was mainly due to the smaller output forecasted for corn (15.0 million tonnes) and soybeans (2.7 million tonnes).

Among the five most important products for the next harvest, three of them should register negative changes in the output: paddy rice (-5.9%), corn - 1st crop (-14.4%) and soybean grain (-2.4%). Possible positive changes could be: upland cottonseed (4.7%) and beans - 1st crop (5.0%). In this forecast, field information represented 98.1% of the expected national production, whereas projections accounted for only 1.9% of the total estimated now.

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The third projection reported a cotton output of 4.0 million tonnes, an increase of 0.2% in relation to the survey carried out last month. The planted area and the area to be harvested increased 0.1% and the average yield, 0.1%. An area of 1.0 million hectares of cotton should be planted in Brazil as a whole. As the second largest producer in Brazil, Bahia estimated a production of 914.8 million tonnes and should account for 22.8% of the total to be harvested in 2018. The output should grow 9.8% over 2017. For Mato Grosso, the largest producer in Brazil, 2.7 million tonnes were estimated, an increase of 3.2% in relation to that obtained in 2017. These two states should contribute with 89.0% to the national production of cotton in 2018.

PADDY RICE - The third projection of the production of rice for 2018 was of 11.7 million tonnes, an increase of 2.1% in relation to the survey carried out in November and a reduction of 5.9% in relation to that obtained in 2017. As the largest producer in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul should account for 71.0% of the total to be harvested in 2018. The production was estimated at 8.3 million tonnes, a reduction of 4.7% over 2017. The planted area of rice also dropped (-2.5%). As the second national producer, Santa Catarina should harvest 1.1 million tonnes at an expected average yield of 7,305 kg/ha, a retreat of 4.9% in relation to the 2017 harvest. This state maintained the same November estimates for December.

COFFEE BEANS - The production of coffee was estimated at 3.2 million tonnes (53.2 million 60-kg sacks) for 2018, an increase of 14.9% in relation to the 2017 harvest. For coffea arabica, the output was estimated at 2.5 million tonnes or 41.4 million 60-kg sacks, representing a growth of 18.6% and accounting for 77.8% of the total coffee to be harvested. Although the planted area and the area to be harvested retracted 10.2% and 2.2%, respectively, the average yield, of 1,690 kg/ha, recorded an increase of 21.2%, as a result of the biennial positive bearings in 2018, since this type of coffee alternates years of low and high production. For coffea canephora (conillon), the output was estimated at 707.1 thousand tonnes, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year. Although the planted area retracted 15.7%, the average yield grew 2.6%.

BEAN SEED - The production of beans was estimated at 3.4 million tonnes for the 2018 harvest, an increase of 4.2% in relation to the crop harvested in 2017. The first crop should produce 1.6 million tonnes; the second crop, 1.3 million tonnes and the third crop, 519.6 thousand tonnes. A reduction of 0.9% was registered in relation to the second projection in the production estimates of beans - 1st crop, with an increase of 1.5% in the area to be harvested and a retreat of 2.3% in the average yield. Piauí (111.5%), Alagoas (195.3%), Maranhão (9.7%), São Paulo (14.5%), Minas Gerais (0.7%) and Rio Grande do Sul (17.7%) expected a bigger production, while Ceará (-51.5%) and Espírito Santo (-4.8%) expected reductions.

The area to be planted in the summer (first crop) harvest was 1.8 million hectares, 0.1% smaller than that in 2017. The area to be harvested expected an increase of 4.0%. The average yield should grow 0.9%, provided that the climate conditions favor the development of the crops as happened in the 2017 harvest. In absolute terms, the biggest increases in the output for this harvest in relation to the previous forecast were reported by Piauí (65,360 tonnes), São Paulo (21,091 tonnes) and Rio Grande do Sul (10,304 tonnes). Ceará reported the biggest reduction in the output (113,638 tonnes).

CORN GRAIN - The third projection of corn grain estimated a production of 84.5 million tonnes in 2018, a drop of 15.1% over the 2017 harvest. The 2017 harvest was record due to significant increases in the planted area and in the average yield, reaching 99.6 million tonnes, which rose the basis of comparison for the output next year. Following the trend over the last years, the second crop should record the biggest volume harvested in Brazil, about 69.2% of the national production in 2018, adding up to 57.9 million tonnes, a decrease of 15.4% compared with 2017.

The first crop of corn should hit 26.6 million tonnes, which represented a drop of 14.4% compared with the previous period. Compared with the second forecast, the estimated production increased 3.1%, mainly due to Rio Grande do Sul, which increased its estimated production for the previous month by 11.6%, changing from 4.4 to 4.9 million tonnes.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - The third production estimate for 2018 added up to 112.3 million tonnes, an increase of 3.8% over the previous month and a reduction of 2.4% in relation to the 2017 harvest. The area to be planted was 34.5 million hectares, an increase of 1.2% in relation to the previous month and of 1.7% in relation to 2017.

Despite the rise of 2.6% in the average yield in the monthly comparison, it declined 4.2% over the previous year, as a result of climate uncertainties during the crop cycle. It should be highlighted that rainfall had been abundant and regular in the major producer states in the 2017 harvest, reaching a historical record of production in Brazil. Therefore, it was a relatively high basis of comparison. The December forecast for soybeans was exclusively based on field information.

As the prices paid for soybeans tended to be better than those paid for corn, it should stimulate the cropping of soybeans, which should account for 50.1% of the whole harvest of grains in Brazil. As the third biggest producer of soybeans, Rio Grande do Sul estimated an output of 17.8 million tonnes, a reduction of 5.0% in relation to 2017. Compared with the information from the previous month, the production estimate grew 21.3%, due to the increases of 16.9% in the estimated average yield and of 3.9% in the estimated harvested area.

Goiás was another state that renew the information from the previous month. The production should hit 10.5 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.8%. Nevertheless, the production in Goiás should decrease 7.5% over 2017.

Highlights in December 2017 estimates over November

In the December LSPA, the changes in the following production estimates, compared with November, stood out: oranges (8.1%), potatoes - 3rd crop (6.7%), beans - 3rd crop (2.6%), beans - 1st crop (-0.8%), beans - 2nd crop (-1.0%), sugarcane (-3.8%), wheat (-17.1%), barley (-24.0%) and oat (-30.2%).

POTATOES - As a whole, Brazil should produce 4.3 million tonnes in 2017, an increase of 1.7% in relation to the previous month. The planted area and harvested area rose 2.8%, yet the average yield retreated 1.1%. The production estimate for the first crop did not change over the previous month and the output should reach 2.0 million tonnes. The production estimate for the second crop was 1.2 million tonnes, representing an increase of 0.2% in relation to the previous month. The harvested area rose 1.3%, offsetting the retraction of 1.1% in the average yield. An output of 1.1 million tonnes was estimated for the third crop, representing an increase of 6.7% against November. The harvested area grew 11.7%, offsetting the retraction of 4.4% in the average yield.

SUGARCANE - The harvested area reduced 7.9% between November and December, while the output fell 3.8%. On the other hand, the average yield was positively adjusted by 4.5%, changing from 70,886 kg/ha in November to 74,044 kg/ha in December. The changes were mostly influenced by São Paulo, responsible for 53.8% of the total produced in Brazil. In this state, the planted area was reduced by 12.8% and the production, by 6.3%, being estimated at 370.0 million tonnes. Nevertheless, the average yield increased 8.9% (78,241 kg/ha).

WINTER CEREALS - The winter crops were already harvested. Producing 4.2 million tonnes, which represented a retreat of 17.1% over the previous month, wheat is the major winter cereal produced in Brazil. The average yield decreased by this same percentage, being estimated at 2,217 kg/ha. For oat, the output was estimated at 609.1 thousand tonnes, a retraction of 30.2% in relation to the previous month. As to barley, the output should reach 286.4 thousand tonnes, representing a reduction of 24.0% over the previous month. The average yield declined 25.9%, while the harvested area increased 2.5%. Due to climate changes, winter cereals have been experiencing production shortage over the last years. Lack of rainfall during cropping and the beginning of the vegetative growth phase, off-season frosts and excess of rainfall in the end of the cycle have been frequently happening in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, causing serious losses to the producers. In addition, wheat prices were not attracting wheat farmers, who have been reducing the planted area of this cereal.

BEAN SEED - The production estimate was of 3.3 million tonnes, a drop of 0.3% in relation to the previous month. The data that mostly influenced this decrease in the output were those from Paraíba, Ceará and Pernambuco. In Paraíba, the production was estimated at 21.2 thousand tonnes, representing a retraction of 29.4%. In Ceará, the output was estimated at 133.2 thousand tonnes (-5.4%), whereas it was estimated at 59.5 thousand tonnes (-6.0%) in Pernambuco.

In December, the first crop reduced 0.8% as a result of the drop in the estimates for Paraíba (-23.1%), Ceará (-4.8%) and Pernambuco (-8.8%), due to the lack of rainfall in the producer regions. The second crop reduced 1.0%, as a result of declines in the output of Ceará (-20.5%), Paraíba (-35.6%), Pernambuco (-4.0%), Sergipe (-3.4%), Minas Gerais (-1.2%), Espírito Santo (-8.9%), Acre (-8.3%), Tocantins (-5.6%) and Maranhão (2.1%). For the third crop, the production estimate grew 2.6%, when 543.8 thousand tonnes were harvested. Having estimated an output of 76.5 thousand tonnes of beans, a rise of 23.8% over the previous month, São Paulo was responsible for this increase, as a result of the increase in the planted area (22.0%).

ORANGES - The production estimate in December was 8.1% bigger than last month, a total of 18.7 million tonnes produced in 629.8 thousand hectares. The increase was due to the fair distribution of rainfall, particularly in the citriculture area in São Paulo, which favored bigger and heavier fruits. The production in São Paulo (14.3 million tonnes) increased 10.1% over November, whereas Paraná forecast a monthly increase of 13.3%, a total of 850.0 thousand tonnes.  The average yields in these states grew 16.3% and 12.7%, respectively, as a result of the increasing investments in the crops, as prices remained steady in most part of 2017.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA).

The surveys relative to cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), legumes (peanuts and beans) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.