In March 2016, the national industrial output advanced 1.4% over the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, after dropping 2.7% in February. Compared with the same month of the previous year in the not seasonally adjusted series, the overall industry registered a fall of 11.4%, in March 2016, the 25th negative rate in a row in this type of comparison and higher than February's (-9.8%). Therefore, in the cumulative index for the first three months of 2016, the industrial sector registered a 11.7% reduction. The annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – with a decrease of 9.7% in March 2016, posted the most intense drop since October 2009 (-10.3%) and kept the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%).

Indicators of Industrial Outptut by Major Economic Categories
Brazil - March 2016

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally Adjusted Series

In the seasonally adjusted series, industry grows in 12 of the 24 segments

The 1.4% growth in the industrial activity between February and March of 2016 was seen in all the four major economic categories and in 12 out of the 24 segments surveyed. Among the sectors, the main positive influence was recorded by food products, which advanced 4.6%, offsetting the 2.1% drop accumulated between January and February 2016. Other important positive contributions on the industry overall came from machinery and equipment (8.5%), pharmaceuticals (8.3%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (2.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (3.6%) and wood products (4.2%). It is worth highlighting that, except for the last activity (which recorded growth for the third month in a row and accumulated a gain of 13.8% in this period), the others recorded negative rates last February: -8.0%, -0.3%, -9.3% and -3.1%, respectively. On the other hand, among the ten sectors that increased the output this month, the major performance in the global average was done by coke, petroleum products and biofuels, which fell 6.5%, interrupting three months of consecutive positive rates and that accumulated an expansion of 8.1%. Other relevant negative impacts were seen in the sectors pulp, paper and paper products
(-3.1%), mining and quarrying (-0.9%), basic metals (-2.1%), rubber and plastic (-2.9%) and furniture (-4.6%).

Among the major economic categories, comparing with the previous month, capital goods, advancing 2.2%, posted the sharpest advance in March 2016 and the third positive rate in a row, accumulating in this period a gain of 3.1%. It is worth highlighting that these results interrupted three months of output decrease and accumulated a reduction of 11.2%. The segments of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.9%) and durable consumer goods (0.3%) and of intermediate goods (0.1%) also increased production this month, but with a lower intensity than that of the national average (1.4%). With this month's results, the first one eliminated a drop of 0.6% observed last February when it interrupted three consecutive months of production growth, with a cumulative gain of 0.8% in the period; the second one grew again after a 8.5% loss in the first two months of the year and the last one showed a slight increase, after dropping 1.9% in the previous month.

Quarterly moving average falls 0.3%

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry declined 0.3%, in the quarter ended in March 2016, against the level of the previous month, keeping the downward trend started in November 2014. Among the major economic categories, in relation to the movement of this index on margin, durable consumer goods (-2.9%) recorded the sharpest drop this month and intensified the pace of decline seen in the previous month (-0.3%). The segment of intermediate goods (-0.3%) also registered negative figures in March 2016 and kept the downward trend started in September 2014. On the other hand, the sector of capital goods (1.0%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (0.2%) recorded advance this month, with the first sector breaking the sequence of negative results started in October 2014; and the second one keeping a slightly positive behavior since January 2016, after accumulating a 2.0% loss between July and December 2015.

Industrial output falls 11.4% in relation to March 2015

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial sector dropped 11.4% in March 2016, pointing to a prevalence of negative figures and reaching the four major economic categories, 22 out of the 26 sectors, 65 out of the 79 groups and 75.5% out of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, which fell 23.8%, and mining and quarrying (-16.6%) exerted the major negative influences in the formation of the industry average, pushed, to a great extent, by the items automobiles, trucks, car parts, vehicles for the transportation of goods, chassis with truck and bus engines, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers and bodies for buses and trucks, in the first activity; and iron ores and crude petroleum oil, in the second. Other relevant negative contributions came from machinery and equipment
(-17.8%), basic metals (-14.4%), computer, electronic and optical products (-31.1%), fabricated metal products (-19.6%), rubber and plastic (-16.8%), petroleum products and biofuels (-5.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-14.3%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-17.4%), other transportation equipment (-22.0%), textiles (-15.7%) and furniture
(-17.9%). On the other hand, still considering the comparison with March de 2015, the activities tobacco products (17.4%) and pharmaceuticals (2.7%) exerted the main positive influence this month.

Comparing with the same month a year ago, capital goods (-24.5%) and durable consumer goods, (-24.3%) recorded, in March 2016, the sharpest drops among the major economic categories. The producing sectors of intermediate goods (-10.9%) and semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-3.8%) also recorded negative results this month, yet both below the national average (-11.4%).

In the cumulative index for the January-February period of 2016, over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector posted a decrease of 11.7%, with widespread fall, since the four major economic categories, 23 of the 26 segments, 63 of the 79 groups and 75.4% of the 805 products surveyed had reduction in the production. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, which fell 27.8%, and mining and quarrying (-15.3%) exerted the major negative influences in the formation of the industry average, pushed, to a great extent, by the items cars, trucks, car parts, vehicles for the transportation of goods, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, chassis with bus and truck engines and bodies for buses, in the first activity; and iron ores and crude petroleum oil, in the second. Other relevant negative contributions to the national overall came from machinery and equipment (-23.7%), computer, electronic and optical products (-34.7%), de basic metals (-13.9%), rubber and plastic (-15.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-20.5%), fabricated metal products
(-17.0%), non-metallic mineral products (-13.4%), other transportation equipment (-23.6%), beverages (-7.9%), textiles (-15.9%), wearing apparel and accessories (-11.4%), furniture (-15.7%) and food products (-1.4%). On the other hand, the activities of tobacco products (31.3%) and pulp, paper and paper products (1.7%) exerted the main positive influences this month.

Among the major economic categories, the behavior of the results of the first two months of 2016 showed lower dynamism for capital goods (-28.9%) and durable consumer goods
(-27.3%), particularly pressed by the reduction in the manufacture of capital goods for transportation equipment (-28.6%), in the first category; and of cars (-25.3%) and household appliances (-34.8%), in the second one. The segments of intermediate goods (-10.3%) and of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-4.5%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index of the first quarter of the year. The former segment declining below the magnitude of the drop of the national average (-11.7%), and the latter recording the most moderate fall among the major economic categories.

Industry falls 11.7% in the first quarter of 2016

In a quarterly basis, signs of a lower dynamism of the industrial activity were also evident, with the industrial sector falling 11.7% in the first three months of 2016 - the eighth consecutive negative rate, and keeping a two-digit fall seen in the last quarter of 2015 (-11.9%), both comparisons against the periods of the previous year. Among the major economic categories, all kept the negative behavior between these two periods, but just intermediate goods, from -9.6% in the fourth quarter of 2015 to -10.3% in the following quarter, intensified the loss, pushed, to a great extent, by the reduction coming from mining and quarrying (from -7.4% to -15.3%). The sector of capital goods (from -31.9% to -28.9%) showed the major contraction in the pace of decline between the two periods, but remained with the highest negative result in the first quarter of 2016. The segments of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (from -6.3% to -4.5%) and of durable consumer goods (from -27.9% to -27.3%) also recorded reduction in the loss magnitude between both periods, with the first one pointing out to a less sharp negative rate among the major economic categories; and the second keeping the drop far above the industry average. The reduction in the output of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-7.4%) in October 2015 was the 12th consecutive negative rate in the comparison with the same month a year ago, almost repeating the results recorded last August (-7.5%) and September (-7.5%). The performance this month was explained by the contraction found in all groups: semi-durable (-17.1%), non-durable (-9.3%), food and beverages for household consumption (-2.5%) and fuels (-5.1%).