In July 2015, in the seasonally adjusted series, the industrial output in Brazil declined 1.5% over the previous month, the second consecutive negative figure, accumulating a 2.4% loss in this period. As a result, the industry stood 14.1% below the record level reached in June 2013. Comparing with the same month a year ago in the seasonally-unadjusted series, the industry dropped 8.9% in July 2015, the 17th consecutive negative rate and more intense than those reported in March (-3.3%), April (-7.7%), May (-8.8%) and June (-2.8%). Thus, the industrial sector recorded a cumulative reduction of 6.6% in the seven months of 2015. Having declined 5.3% in July 2015, the annualized rate - cumulative indicator in the last 12 months - recorded a sharper drop than that reported last June (-4.9%) and kept the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%). Click here to access the complete publication.

Industry Output Indicators by Major Economic Categories
Brazil - July 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally Adjusted Series

Over July, output down in 14 out of 24 segments surveyed

The drop of 1.5% in the industrial activity between June and July showed predominance of negative results, reaching three out of the four major economic categories and 14 out of the 24 segments surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative influence was registered by food products, which shrank 6.2%, offsetting the expansion of 4.3% observed in the previous month. Other negative important contributions to the industry overall came from the activities de beverages (-6.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.7%) and mining and quarrying (-1.5%), with the first one offsetting part of the 7.1% growth accumulated in the months of May and June; the second one interrupting three months of positive rates, when it accumulated a gain of 3.6%; and the last one accumulated a 2.6% drop in the last three months, after advancing 4.3% between December 2014 and April 2015. There were also losses in the sectors of wood products (-7.6%), rubber and plastic material products (-2.2%), mixed products (-5.5%) and fabricated metal products (-1.8%). On the other hand, among the ten sectors that expanded the production this month, the most important performance was registered by the sector of machinery and equipment, which advanced 6.5%, interrupting five months of negative results in a row. In this period, it recorded a 11.9% reduction. Other important positive impacts were seen in the sectors of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (1.4%) and computer, electronic and optical products (3.2%), with the first one growing again after a cumulative drop of 24.4% between October 2014 and June 2015; and the second one posting the first positive result since last January, with a cumulative loss of 28.2%.

Among the major economic categories, semi and non-durable consumer goods, shrinking 3.4% in the comparison with June, showed the sharpest reduction, eliminating the 3.1% expansion accumulated in the last months of May and June. The manufacturing sectors of intermediate goods (-2.1%) and capital goods (-1.9%) also recorded negative rates, both in the sixth consecutive month of output drops and accumulating in this period losses of 4.4% and 17.7%, respectively. On the other hand, the segment of durable consumer goods, advancing 9.6%, had the only positive result this month, after accumulating a loss of 25.2% between October last year and June 2015.

Quarterly moving average down 0.6%

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index declined 0.6% in the quarter ended in July 2015, against the level of the previous month, keeping the downward trend started in September 2014. Among the major economic categories, still in relation to this index on margin, capital goods (2.0%), intermediate goods (-0.9%) and durable consumer goods (-0.5%) posted the most intense reductions, with the first one accumulating a 11.7% loss in the last four months; the second one keeping the negative behavior seen since October 2014; and the last one keeping the downward trend initiated in November last year. Also posting a negative figure this month, the sector producing semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%), after a slight increase of 0.2% in the previous month, interrupted the downward trend started in September 2014.

Industry declines 8.9% against July 2014

Compared with July 2014, the industrial sector dropped 8.9% in July 2015, pointing to a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching the four major economic categories, 23 out of the 26 sectors, 72 out of the 79 groups and 69.9% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies, which reduced 19.1%, and food products (-7.2%) exerted the major negative influences on the formation of the industry, average, pushed by the reduction in the production of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods, cars, trailers and semi-trailers, bodies for buses and trucks and car parts, in the first sector; and crystallized sugar, VHP sugar and refined cane sugar, concentrated orange juice, frozen, chilled or fresh beef, chocolate candies and candy bars, cookies and powdered milk, in the second. Other negative relevant contributions came from computer, electronic and optical products (-34.8%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.2%), machinery and equipment (-15.1%), fabricated metal products (-13.0%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-15.7%), basic metals (-7.9%), other chemicals (-6.4%), pharmaceuticals (-14.3%), beverages (-10.5%), rubber and plastic material products (-9.0%) and textiles (-18.6%). Among the three activities that increased the production, the main impact was caused by mining and quarrying industries (2.9%), leveraged by the advances in crude iron ore and in crude petroleum oil.

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, capital goods (-27.8%) and durable consumer goods (-13.7%) registered the steepest decline among the major economic categories. The segments of semi- and non-durable consumer goods (-9.2%) and of intermediate goods (-5.6%) also recorded negative rates this month, the first one registering a fall above the level of the national average (-8.9%), and the second with a less intense drop among the major economic categories.

The producing sector of capital goods, shrinking 27.8% in the monthly index of July 2015, recorded the 17th negative consecutive rate and the sharpest since the beginning of the time series in this kind of comparison. In the formation of this month´s index, this segment was influenced by the decline in the majority of its groups, with a highlight to the reduction of 31.8% in capital goods for transportation equipment, mainly pressed by the reduced manufacturing of trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers, buses and passenger rail cars. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for mixed use (-34.1%), for construction (-56.9%), for agriculture (-26.4%) and for electricity (-17.0%), whereas capital goods for industrial use (0.6%) recorded the only positive figure in July 2015.

The segment of durable consumer goods fell 13.7% in the monthly index of July 2015, the 17th negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and far sharper than that of last June (-1.0%). This month the sector was pressed by the reduced manufacturing of "white goods" (-26.8%), "brown goods" (-26.2%) and cars (-3.6%), influenced by reduced shifts and collective vacations in a number of producing units. Other negative impacts came from motorcycles (-25.3%), furniture (-19.2%) and other household appliances (-22.2%).

The output reduction of semi- and non-durable goods (-9.2%) in July 2015 was the ninth negative consecutive result in the comparison with the same month a year ago and intensified the pace of decline over the value seen last June (-2.4%). The performance this month was due to the falls in the non-durable groups: food and beverages for domestic consumption (-8.8%), non-durable (-9.7%), semi-durable goods (11.3%) and fuels (-6.7%).

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the production of intermediate goods (-5.6%) recorded the 16th consecutive negative rate and the sharpest one since November last year (-5.8%). The result was explained by the drops in the products related to the activities of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-16.2%), fabricated metal products (-16.3%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6,0%), basic metals (-7,9%), food products (-5,9%), other chemicals (-6.3%), rubber and plastic material products (-8.6%), textiles (-20.3%) non-metallic mineral products (-6.8%), whereas positive pressures were registered in mining and quarrying (2.9%), machinery and equipment (6.4%) pulp, paper and paper products (3.8%). In that same category, there was decrease in the civil construction input (-12.7%), the 17th consecutive negative rate, and packaging (-3.0%), which offset the positive result seen in the previous month (0.6%).

Cumulative index in 2015 down 6.6%

In the cumulative index for the January-July 2015 period, over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector dropped 6.6%. Negative rates prevailed, since the four major economic categories, 23 out of the 26 sectors, 67 out of the 79 groups and 71.1% of the 805 products surveyed declined their production. Among the sectors, the main negative impact was reported in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-20.2%), pressed by the reduced manufacturing of about 92% of the products investigated in this activity. The highlights were the drops seen in cars, trucks and tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, car parts, trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for the transportation of goods and bodies for trucks and buses. Other negative relevant contributions came from the sectors of computer, electronic and optical products (-29.0%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-6.0%), machinery and equipment (-11,4%), food products (-3,8%), basic metals (-7,6%), pharmaceuticals   (-15.5%), fabricated metal products (-9.2%), beverages (-7.6%), rubber and plastic material products (-6.5%), wearing apparel and accessories (-10.5%) and non-metallic mineral products (-5.4%).

Among the major economic categories, the behavior of the results of the first seven months of 2015 showed lower dynamism for capital goods (-20.9%) and durable consumer goods (-14.2%), pressed by the reduction in the manufacture of capital goods for transportation equipment (-26.6%), in the first category, and of cars (-13.0%), in the second one. The segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-7.0%) and intermediate goods (-3.4%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index in the year. The former segment surpassed the magnitude of the drop of the national average (6.6%), and the latter recorded the most moderate decline among the major economic categories.