The fourth estimate of 2016 for the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds accounted for 205.4 million metric tons, 1.9% higher than that of 2015 (209.4 million metric tons). The estimate of the area to be harvested is of 58.5 million hectares, recording an increase of 1.6% compared with the harvested area in 2015 (57.6 million hectares). In comparison with March's report, the output fell 2.2% and the area increased 0.3%. Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which together represented 92.9% of the estimated output and accounted for 87.1% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there were increments of 2.9% for the area of soybeans and of 2.9% in the area for corn; in the rice area there was reduction of 7.7%. Concerning production, the increase was of 1.3% for soybeans and decreases of 7.6% for rice and of 5.0% for corn.

The complete publication can be accessed here.

In regional terms, the volume of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central-West Region, 87.0 million metric tons; South, 74.6 million metric tons; Southeast, 20.9 million metric tons; Northeast, 15.8 million metric tons; and North, 7.1 million metric tons. In the comparison with the last crop, there was increase of 8.3% in the Southeast Region and reductions of 8.2% in the Northeast Region, of 4.7% in the Northeast Region, of 3.2% in the Central-West Region and of 1.7% in the South Region. In the estimate for 2016, Mato Grosso led the national production of grains (25.1%), followed by Paraná (18.3%) and Rio Grande do Sul (15.0%), which together accounted for 58.4% of the national forecast.

April's estimate in relation to March 2016

In the Systematic Survey of the Agricultural Production of April the highlights were the changes in the following production estimates over March: sorghum (4.8%), cocoa (3.6%), beans 3rd crop (-0.9%), beans - 1st crop (-1.2%), cassava (-1.2%), soybeans (-1.7%), coffea canephora (-4.3%), corn 2nd crop (-4.5%), upland cotton (-8.4%), barley (-17.6%) and triticale (-18.4%).

UPLAND COTTON SEED – Production, now estimated at 3.6 million metric tons, decreased 8.4% in relation to the previous month. Such change is due to the decrease of the national average yield (3.628 kg/ha), 7.0% lower than that of March. The estimates of the planted area and the area to be harvested also decreased, becoming 1.4% and 1.5% lower, respectively. Bahia is the main state to influence this fall. The state which continues as the second major national producer estimates a decrease of 27.9%, becoming 857.2 thousand metric tons. This pessimist estimate is due to the droughts which stroke again the state causing the average yield to fall 24.4%, resulting in the new estimate of 2,908 kg/ha. The estimates of the planted area and the area to be harvested were also revised down, both 4.6% lower than March's report.

COCOA NUTS – The estimate production of cocoa nuts in April reached 263,638 metric tons, 3.6% higher than in March. The planted area and the area to be harvested increased by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively, with the expected average yield of 402 kg/ha, being revised up to 2.6%. Data reflect the estimates of Pará, which recorded increases of 5.1% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested, 3.9% in the average yield and 9.2% in the production, in comparison with the previous month.

COFFEE BEANS – A few weeks from the beginning of the harvesting period, the production estimate of coffee in 2016 reached 3.0 million metric tons or 49.9 million sacks (60 kg sack), with the arabica probably participating with 78.9% of this total and the canephora with 21.1%. In April, weather conditions were favorable in the major producing regions of arabica in Minas Gerais, with the national output being revised up to 0.4% over the previous month. Minas Gerais is the major producer of the country and responsible for 68.4% of the total to be harvested, with a 0.4% increase in the production estimate. As to canephora, Espírito Santo reported a reduction of 6.6% against the previous month, with an average yield 6.5% lower. The state must register a crop of 425.0 thousand metric tons or 7.1 million sacks (60 kg sack). Espírito Santo participates with 67.3% of the national canephora crop, which, in April, was reviewed at 631.6 thousand metric tons, or 10.6 million sacks (60 kg sack).

BEAN SEEDS - Compared with March, the estimates for the total planted area with bean seeds decreased 0.4% and the average yield fell 0.4%. That influenced the production estimate, which stood 0.8% lower. The biggest producers are Paraná, with 21.8%; Minas Gerais, with 17.2%; and Bahia, with 10.2%. Beans 1st crop is estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, which represents a fall of 1.2% over March's estimate, reflecting the drop of the estimate of the harvested area (0.8%) and of the average yield (0.6%). The shrinking production expectation for beans 1st crop is due, mainly, to the Northeast Region States, which produce 37.1% of the total grain in this crop, recording a 0.9% reduction in the planted area, a 0.2% fall in the average yield and a 1.2% drop in the production estimate. The North Region has also reduced the estimates of planted area by 8.8%, of average yield by 18.8% and of production by 26.0%. Rondônia, the biggest producer in the area, had its estimates reduced as it follows: planted area (-9.9%), average yield (-29.5%) and production (-36.5%). As to the 3rd crop, besides the fall of 0.4% in the estimate of the planted area and of 0.5% for the average yield, the output forecast was reduced by 0.9% in relation to March, standing at 359,711 metric tons. Minas Gerais, which is the major producer of this harvesting period, contributing with 52.0% to the national overall, reduced by 0.4% the planted area estimate, by 1.3% the average yield expected and by 1.6% the production estimate. Mato Grosso, which must produce 15.3% of the total for the 3rd crop, expected the planted area to reduce 2.1%, the output estimate, 2.3% and the average yield, 0.2% in relation to March.

CASSAVA, the production estimate of cassava in 2016 reached 22.4 million metric tons, a drop of 1.2% over the previous month. The area to be harvested and the average yield contracted 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The production estimate drop in April, in relation to March, is due to the reduction of the production estimates of the North Region, which fell 3.0% on account of the crop reports of Rondônia (-2.7%), Pará (-5.0%) and Amapá (-5.2%). Despite the fast recovery in the last months, the current market prices of the root's metric ton are still at relatively low levels, discouraging new crop investments.

CORN GRAIN – The national production of corn grain, accounting now for 81.2 million metric tons, was revised down to 3.1% in April, in relation to March, due to the 5.1% drop of the expected average yield. The reduction of the output expectation was mainly influenced principally because of data on corn 2nd crop. For this crop, 53.5 million metric tons are expected, a 4.5% decrease over March's forecast. For this month, both the estimate for the planted area and that of the area to be harvested were revised up, the increases were of 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The drawback occurred with the average yield, which declined 7.8% over the previous month. Goiás' estimates influenced the drop of the figures of this second harvest period, registering a fall of 34.1% in the output, following the decrease of the average yield (-33.9%). Mato Grosso estimates a 21.0 million metric tons crop, representing 39.3% of the total to be harvested nationally for corn 2nd crop. The high of 4.7% in production is a consequence of the positive review of 7.4% in the planted area and in the area to be harvested. The average yield had a decrease of 2.6%, becoming 5,542 kg/ha. Paraná rose the expectation of the planted area to 2.5% in relation to March. Even with this increase, the drop of 4.3% in the average yield made the production estimate go down by 1.9%. The expected production for the state is of 12.4 million metric tons.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – Despite the 1.7% reduction, in relation to the previous month, the national production of soybeans still hit a record. In an area of 33.0 million metric tons, the forecast is of an output of 98.5 million metric tons of the legume. Mato Grosso leads the national production, with 28.0% of every production in the country. The expected soybean production for the state is of 27.6 million metric tons, a figure 1.0% lower than in March. April's review brought decrease for the output forecast of Maranhão (-29.8%) and Bahia (-8.6%).

SORGHUM GRAIN – In April, the production estimate of sorghum had an increase of 4.8% against the previous month. The country must produce 1.9 million metric tons of this cereal. In Goiás, the main producer and responsible for 46.2% of the production estimate of the country for 2016, the low rainfall in 2016 has not yet affected the crops. The production estimate was up 16.1% over March.

WINTER CEREALS (grain) – The production estimate of wheat, barley and triticale are falling 2.2%, 17.6% and 18.4%, respectively, over the previous month, mostly due to the 2.0%, 19.4% and 33.6% reduction in the area to be planted, respectively. Paraná is the biggest producer. For two consecutive years, winter crops in the South had losses caused by the adverse weather in the end of the cycle. Besides, the increase of the planted area with corn 2nd crop reduces the “planting window” of these winter crops, notably in Paraná.

April 2016's estimate in relation to the production obtained in 2015

Among the 26 main products, 13 registered positive change in the production estimate, in relation to the previous year: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (19.4%), oat grain (1.7%), potatoes - 1st crop (2.3%), potatoes - 2nd crop (5.1%), cocoa nuts (3.3%), coffee beans – arabica (18.4%), barley grain (16.3%), bean seed - 1st crop (7.6%), bean seed - 2nd crop (5.0%), castor beans (13.4%), soybean grain (1.3%), wheat grain (4.7%) and triticale grain (9.2%). With a negative change, there were also 13 products: upland cotton seeds (11.5%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (0.3%), paddy rice (7.6%), potatoes - 3rd crop (25.1%), coffee beans – canephora (3.6%), sugarcane (2.7%), onions (2.5%), bean seeds - 3rd crop (18.9%), oranges (2.7%), cassava (1.6%), corn grain 1st crop (5.5%), corn grain 2nd crop (4.8%) and sorghum grain (9.6%).

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) is a monthly survey to forecast and monitor the harvest of the main agricultural products, whose information is obtained by means of the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and/or Regional Commissions (COREA). The latter are consolidated in state level by the Agriculture Statistics Coordinating Groups (GCEA) and, later, evaluated at national level, by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO). This Commission is formed by representatives from IBGE and from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to users’ needs of harvest data, the surveys relative to Cereals (rice, corn, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, wheat and triticale), Legumes (peanuts and beans) and Oilseeds (cotton seed, castor beans, soybeans and sunflower) have been conducted in close partnership with the National Supply Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture (CONAB), a subdivision of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). That initiative is the result of a process (started in March, 2007) of harmonization of official harvest estimates for the main Brazilian crops.