In the seasonally-adjusted series, the reduced pace of the national industrial output was followed by eight out of the 14 places surveyed between June and July 2015.

The sharpest declines were registered in Paraná (-6.3%) and Ceará (-5.2%). Paraná interrupted three consecutive months of positive rates, which recorded a cumulative expansion of 2.1%. Ceará offset part of the cumulative growth of 7.0% between May and June 2015. Santa Catarina (-2.4%) and São Paulo (-1.8%) also recorded steeper declines than the national average (-1.5%), whereas Amazonas (-1.5%), Espírito Santo (-1.4%), Minas Gerais (-1.3%) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.9%) were the other places that posted negative indexes in July 2015. On the other hand, Rio Grande do Sul (6.8%) and Bahia (5.2%) registered the highest increases: the former offset part of the cumulative loss of 7.3% between April and June, and the latter recorded two consecutive months of expansion and posted a cumulative gain of 8.3% in the period. The other positive figures were registered in the Northeast Region (3.3%), Pernambuco (3.3%), Goiás (0.6%) and Pará (0.4%). The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

Short-term Indicators of Industry
Regional Results
July 2015

* Seasonally-adjusted series
 

Still concerning the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the overall industry pointed to a decline of 0.6% in the quarter ending in July 2015 over the previous month, and maintained the downward trend started in September 2014. In regional terms, also considering the marginal movement of this index, eight places recorded negative rates, highlighted by the sharper declines reported in Paraná (-1.9%), Santa Catarina (-0.9%) and São Paulo (-0.8%). Conversely, Bahia (2.4%) posted the major advance in July 2015.

In relation to July 2014, industry declines in 11 of 15 places surveyed

Having registered negative figures in 11 out of the 15 places surveyed, the industrial sector reduced 8.9% in relation to July 2014. Amazonas (-18.2%), Ceará (-13.7%), São Paulo (-12.0%) and Paraná (-11.5%) recorded the most intense retreats. Santa Catarina (-9.8%) also recorded a sharper drop than the national average (-8.9%), whereas Rio de Janeiro (-8.3%), Minas Gerais (-7.7%), Rio Grande do Sul (-4.7%), the Northeast Region (-4.3%), Goiás (-3.3%) and Pernambuco (-2.5%) were the other places that posted negative rates in July 2015. On the other hand, Pará (6.8%) and Espírito Santo (3.4%) registered the highest advances in July, leveraged, at a great extent, by the positive behavior coming from the mining and quarrying industries (crude or processed iron ores), in the former place; mining and quarrying industries (crude petroleum oil) and basic metals (uncoated hot-rolled steel carbon coils and carbon steel ingots, blocks, rods or plates), in the latter. The other positive figures were reported in Mato Grosso (0.7%) and Bahia (0.4%).

Analysis of four-month periods also shows decline

The reduced pace of production was also evident in the comparison between the index of the first four-month period of the year and the May-July period of 2015, both of them against the same periods last year, in which seven out of the 15 places surveyed lost dynamism, following the movement of the national index, which changed from -6.3% to -7.0%. In this same type of comparison, Espírito Santo (from 19.0% to 10.1%), Pernambuco (from -0.2% to -5.3%), São Paulo (from -6.8% to -11.5%), Goiás (from -0.9% to -4.2%) and Pará (from 8.0% to 5.4%) registered the highest losses, while Bahia (from -12.3% to -0.4%) and Amazonas (from -17.9% to -11.0%), which reduced the magnitude of their losses, recorded the major gains of pace between the two periods.

Industrial Output Indicators
Monthly Survey of Industry - Physical Production - Regional Results
(Base: Same period last year)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

In the cumulative index in the year, industry retreats in 12 of 15 places

In the cumulative indicator for January-July 2015 against the same period last year, the reduced production reached 12 out of the 15 places surveyed, eight of them declining more than the industry average (-6.6%): Amazonas (-15.2%), Rio Grande do Sul (-9.8%), São Paulo (-8.9%), Ceará (-8.9%), Bahia (-7.2%), Paraná (-7.1%), Minas Gerais (-7.0%) and Santa Catarina (-6.7%). In this comparison, the other places that recorded negative figures were Rio de Janeiro (-5.3%), the Northeast Region (-5.0%), Goiás (-2.6%) and Pernambuco (-2.2%).

Conversely, Espírito Santo (14.9%) and Pará (6.8%) posted the most intense advances in the cumulative index in the year, leveraged, at a great extent, by the positive behavior coming from the mining and quarrying sector, whereas Mato Grosso (0.3%) reported the most moderate advance.

In the cumulative index in 12 months, industry declines in 11 of 15 places

Having declined 5.3% in July 2015, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – registered a steeper fall than that reported last June (-4.9%) and maintained the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%). In regional terms, 11 out of the 15 places surveyed posted negative rates in July 2015 and 11 registered lower dynamism against the index of last June. The main reductions in the pace of decline between June and July were registered in Amazonas (from -11.7% to -12.9%), Ceará (from -5.6% to -6.5%), Mato Grosso (from 3.1% to 2.3%), Espírito Santo (from 15.1% to 14.4%), Rio de Janeiro (from -3.7% to -4.4%) and Santa Catarina (from -4.4% to -5.1%), whereas Pará (from 5.2% to 5.9%), Bahia (from -4.7% to -4.1%) and Rio Grande do Sul (from -7.6% to -7.0%) reported the gains between the two periods.

Industrial Output Indicators
Monthly Survey of Industry - Physical Production - Regional Results
Cumulative Index in the Last 12 Months
(Base: Previous last 12 months)

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria