In the seasonally-adjusted series, volume of sales of the retail trade advanced 1.5% in November 2015 over the immediately previous month. In this same comparison, nominal revenue changed 2.3%. For volume of sales, the second consecutive positive change on the margin helped to contribute to halt the downward trend of the quarterly moving average indicator (0.6%), reported since December 2014. In this same indicator, the change in nominal revenue remained positive (1.3%). In the seasonally-unadjusted series, total volume of sales dropped 7.8% over November 2014, registering the eighth negative rate in a row in this type of comparison and the most intense since March 2003 (-11.4%). As a result, the figures remained negative for volume of sales in the cumulative index between January and November 2015 (-4.0%) and in the last 12 months (-3.5%). In these same comparisons, nominal revenue remained on the positive side, changing, respectively: 1.4%; 3.3% and 3,6%.

Concerning the extended retail trade – which includes the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and of construction material in addition to retail –, the changes over the immediately previous month were positive, recording rates of 0.5% for volume of sales and of 1.1% for nominal revenue. In the comparisons involving the previous year, volume of sales posted negative figures, dropping 13.2% in relation to November 2014, the steepest drop in its time series, 8.4% in the cumulative index in the year and 7.8% in the cumulative index in the last 12 months. On its turn, nominal revenue also decreased over November 2014 (-5.4%), registering a cumulative rate in the January-November period and in the last 12 months of -1.8% and -1.3%, respectively.

The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here. 

Five of the eight activities surveyed recorded positive change

From October to November 2015, in the seasonally adjusted series, the increment of 1.5% in the volume of sales of the retail trade activity had a predominance of positive results, reaching five of the eight activities which form retail trade. The main highlights were furniture and household appliances (6.9%) and other articles of personal and domestic use (4.1%). The performance of these segments in November indicate the advance of Christmas purchases, as observed in previous years. The other positive rates came from: pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics (1.2%) and textiles, apparel and footwear (0.6%). It is worth mentioning the significant increase of 17.4% in office, computer and communication equipment. On the other hand, among the activities facing decrease in volume of sales, in relation to October 2015, can be mentioned: hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-1.5%); books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-0.7%) and fuels and lubricants (-0.3%). Considering extended retail trade, the change of 0.5% stops three months of negative rates in a row, in a period with cumulative decrease of 4.0%. The result of November was mainly affected by the performance of vehicles and motorcycles, parts and pieces (1.2%) and construction material (0.6%), which also interrupted a sequence of negative rates.

In comparison with the same month in the previous year, the retail trade sector recorded decrease of 7.8% in November 2015, with a widespread number of negative results among the activities which form retail trade. Among the activities, the reduction of volume of sales in hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco (-5.7%) accounted for the main negative impact on the formation of the overall rate, followed by furniture and household appliances (-14.7%); textiles, apparel and footwear (-15.6%) and fuels and lubricants (-12.0%). These four sectors, together, accounted for more than 90% of the overall result for retail trade. The other activities which recorded negative rates had virtually no significant influence on the interannual result of sales in November: other articles of personal and domestic use (-4.8%), books, newspapers, magazines and stationery (-18.6%) and office, computer and communication material and equipment (-5.6%). On the other hand, pharmaceutical, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics, with increase of 2.0% in comparison with November 2014, was the only one to account for a positive contribution.

TABLE 1
BRAZIL - INDICATORS OF THE VOLUME OF SALES OF RETAIL TRADE AND EXTENDED RETAIL TRADE: PMC - November 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Serviços e Comércio.
(1) Séries com ajuste sazonal
(2) O indicador do comércio varejista é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 8.
(3) O indicador do comércio varejista ampliado é composto pelos resultados das atividades numeradas de 1 a 10

With decrease of 5.7% over the result of November 2014, the activity hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco represented the main negative contribution to volume of sales in the month. The rise of prices of food at home from October to November (about 2.5%) is one of the factors to be considerd in the negative performance of the sector in the month, besides the impact of the continuous decrease of real income. Cumulative indexes in the year and in the last twelve months were -2.4% and -2.3%, respectively, results which placed the sector above the overall retail trade average. The activity furniture and household articles, with decrease of 14.7% in relation to November 2014, accounted for the second biggest contribution to the overall retail trade rate. As a result, having recorded rates of -13.5% cumulative from January to November and of -12.3% cumulative in the last 12 months, the segment remained below the retail average. Since sales are linked to the availability of credit, the results of the sector, below the overall average, were affected mainly by the rise of interest rate in credit operations for natural persons between November 2014 and November 2015. 

The segment of textiles, apparel and footwear, with decrease of 15.6% in terms of volume of sales over November 2014, accounted for the third negative contribution to the overall rate. It is Worth mentioning that this was the biggest decrease recorded in its time series. In terms of cumulative performance, the results were -8.4% in the period January-November and -7.6% cumulative in the last 12 months. Even considering apparel prices below the inflation index, the cumulative result of this activity is below the average of retails trade.

Fuels and lubricants, with decrease of 12.0% in volume of sales in relation to November 2014, represented the biggest negative contribution to the overall retail result. In cumulative terms, the activity rates were -5.8% for the first eleven months and -5.1% for the last 12 ones. These results, below the average of industry, were influenced by the rise of prices of the main products which forms this activity, with a change above inflation levels.

Other articles of personal and domestic use, with a change of -4.8% it records the fifth negative rate in a row. for cumulative indicators, the rate for the first eleven months of the year was -0.3% and for the last 12 months, 0.7%.

Extended retail trade falls by 13.2% in comparison with November 2014

Extended retail trade, which encompasses retail trade and the activities of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces and construction materia, recorded increse of 0.5% in comparison with the figure in the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted sales volume, whereas, for nominal revenue, the rate was 1.1%. The higher level of volume of sales from October to November reflects, above all, the performance of sales of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces, which recorded a rate of 1.2% and interrupted a sequence of three months of decrease in this kind of comparison. In this period, there was decrease of 5.5%. The performance of construction material also contributed to the positive result of extended retail trade, since the increase of 0.6% interrupted four months of negative rates, in a period with cumulative decrease of 3.6%.

In comparison with the same mont h a year before (without seasonal adjustment), the changes for total extended retail were -13.2% for volume of sales and -5.4% for nominal revenue. In terms of volume of sales, the cumulative rates were -8.4% in the year and -7.8% in the last 12 month. Nominal revenue recorded -5,4%. Regarding voluem fo sales, cumulative rates were -8.4% in the year and -7.8% in the last 12 months, with nominal revenue recording changes of -1.8% and -1.3%, respectively. The sector of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces (-24.5%) extended, in November, decrease in sales in relation to the result in the previous month (-23.9%), whereas the segment of construction material (-13.5%) decelerated in comparison with the October result (-15.8%).

Retail figures were positive in 19 of the 27 Federation Units

From October to November 2015, in the seasonally adjusted series, retail sales were positive in 19 of the 27 Federation Units, the main highlights coming from: Pará (3.0%) and Roraima (2.9%), as shown in Graph 5. On the other hand, Amapá (-2.9%) and Paraná (-1.6%) recorded the worst decreases in this type of comparison.

Versus figures in November 2014, without seasonal adjustment, retail trade recorded decrease in 26 of the 27 states for volume of sales, the main highlights being: Amapá, with -27.4%. Roraima (4.0%) was the only state to record increase of sales volume in November. As for the participation in the composition of negative retail trade rate, the highlights, in order, were: São Paulo (-6.0%); Rio Grande do Sul (-10.9%), followed by Paraná (-10.0%) and Santa Catarina (-11.3%).

All the 27 Federation Units also registered negative changes compared with November last year. In terms of volume of sales, the highlights were Amapá, with -26.8%; Tocantins (-24.2%); Espírito Santo (-22.8%) and Goiás (-21.7%). The states accounting for the main negative impacts were São Paulo, with a rate of -6.9% and Rio de Janeiro (-15.1%).