Short-term Indicators of Industry
Brazil - March 2015

*Seasonally Adjusted Series
Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria

Comparing with the same month last year, the industrial employment shrank 5.1% in March 2015, with the contingent of employees recording reduction in the 18 sectors surveyed. The main negative pressures came from means of transportation (-10.0%), communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-12.1%), fabricated metal products (-10.2%), machinery and equipment (-6.1%), food and beverages (-2.0%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-8.1%), footwear and leather (-7.4%), wearing apparel (-5.1%), basic metals (-6.0%), paper and press (-3.6%), petroleum refining and ethanol production (-8.1%), textiles (-3.2%), mining and quarrying industries (-4.4%) and non-metallic mineral products (-2.2%).

In the cumulative index of the first quarter of the year, there was decrease of 4.6%, with negative rates in the 18 sectors surveyed. The main negative contributions came from means of transportation (-8.8%), communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-11.9%), fabricated metal products (-9.3%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-8.2%), machinery and equipment (-5.1%), food and beverages (-1.5%), footwear and leather (-7.1%), wearing apparel (-4.3%), basic metals (-6.3%), paper and press (-3.4%), petroleum products and ethanol production (-6.6%), textiles (-2.6%) and mining and quarrying industries (-4.0%).

In the quarterly analysis, the industrial employment, shrinking 4.6% in the third quarter of 2015, registered the 14th consecutive quarter of negative results, increasing the pace of decline over the first (-2.0%) and second (-2.8%), the third (-3.7%) and fourth (-4.4%) quarters of the 2014 - all comparisons against the same periods last year. The dynamism loss between the last quarter last year and the first quarter of 2015 was seen in 12 of the 18 sectors surveyed, with a highlight to communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-8.4% to -11.9%), means of transportation (-7.8% to -8.8%), fabricated metal products (-8.4% to -9.3%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-6.7% to -8.2%), non-metallic mineral products (-0.2% to -1.3%), wood (-1.7% to -4.1%) and chemicals (0.7% to -0.2%). On the other hand, the sector of food and beverages, which moved from -2.7% in the October-December period of 2014 to -1.5% in the following quarter, registered the main gain between the two periods.

Number of hours paid changes -0.3% in March

In March 2015, the number of hours paid to industrial workers, discounted the seasonal influences, posted a negative change of 0.3% against the previous month, after remaining stable in February (0.0%) and registering slight advance of 0.1% last January, when it interrupted eight months of consecutive negative rates, accumulating in this period a loss of 5.1%. As a result, the quarterly moving average had a negative change (-0.1%) in the quarter ended in March 2015 over the level registered in the previous month and kept the prevailing negative behavior seen since May 2013. In the seasonally adjusted series, quarter against previous quarter, the number of hours paid in the industry contracted 0.4% in the January-March 2015 period, the seventh negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison, accumulating in this period, a reduction of 7.7%.

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the number of hours paid decreased 5.1% in March 2015 , the 22nd consecutive negative rate in that type of comparison. There was widespread fall, for 16 of the 18 segments surveyed had reduction. The main negative influences came from means of transportation (-9.8%), fabricated metal products (-10.1%), communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-10.4%), food and beverages (-2.1%), machinery and equipment (-6.0%), footwear and leather (-9.5%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-8.6%), wearing apparel (-4.6%), basic metals (-7.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-3.6%), paper and press (-4.0%) and petroleum refinement and ethanol production (-9.4%). On the other hand, textiles, with a slight change of 0.1%, recorded the only positive result this month.

In the cumulative index of the first quarter of 2015, the number of hours paid in the industry fell 5.2%, repeating the magnitude of decline observed in the last quarter of 2014 (-5.3%), both comparisons made against the same period in the previous year. In this comparison, 17 of the 18 sectors surveyed recorded decrease. The main negative impacts came from means of transportation (-9.1%), fabricated metal products (-10.1%), communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-10.0%), food and beverages (-2.2%), machinery and equipment (-6.3%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-9.5%), footwear and leather (-8.9%), basic metals (-8.3%), wearing apparel (-4.3%), paper and press (-4.5%), non-metallic mineral products (-3.4%) and petroleum refinement and ethanol production (-8.0%). Conversely, the sector of chemicals (0.0%) was the only one not to present negative results in the cumulative index of the year.

In the quarterly base, the number of hours paid shrank 5.2% in the January-March period of 2015, the 15th negative rate in a row in this type of comparison, but with pace of decline close to the one seen in the fourth quarter of 2014 (-5.3%), all comparisons against the same periods a year ago. Among these two periods, six of the 18 activities increased the pace, with a highlight to food and beverages, moving from -3.7% last quarter 2014 to -2.2% in the three first months of 2015, machinery and equipment (-8.5% to -6.3%), rubber and plastic (-3.6% to -2.0%), footwear and leather (-10.5% to -8.9%) and textiles (-3.0% to -1.8%). The greatest losses between these two periods came from the sectors of non-metallic mineral products (-1.0% to -3.4%), communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-7.7% to -10.0%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-7.3% to -9.5%), means of transportation (-7.8% to -9.1%) and paper and press (from -3.8% to -4.5%).

The annual rate moving from -4.4% in February to –4.6% in March, kept the downward trend initiated in September 2013 (-1.0%).

Value of the real payroll changes -0.1% in March

In March 2015, the value of the real payroll of the industrial workers (seasonally adjusted) had a slight change of 0.1% over the previous month, after showing decrease in January (-0.7%) and February (-0.6%). This month, there is a positive influence of the mining and quarrying sector (11.8%), after a decrease of 17.9% in the previous month, since the manufacturing industry (-0.4%) remained going down for the third consecutive second. With these results, the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall recorded a change of 0.4% in the quarter ended in March 2015 over the result of the previous quarter, after registering a change of 0.3% last February. In the seasonally adjusted series, quarter against previous quarter, the value of the real payroll had a contraction of 0.5% in the January-March period in 2015, the fourth negative consecutive rate in this type of comparison, accumulating in this period, a reduction of 5.2%.

In the comparison with the same month a year ago, the value of the real payroll fell 4.3% in March 2015, the 10th negative rate in a row in that type of comparison. There were negative results in 17 of the 18 sectors surveyed, with a highlight to means of transportation (-8.4%), fabricated metal products (-9.1%), basic metals (-9.4%), communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-7.6%), machinery and equipment (-2.9%), footwear and leather (-8.8%), rubber and plastic (-4.0%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-6.2%), paper and press (-2.7%), tobacco (-24.8%), mining and quarrying industries (-1.9%), petroleum refinement and ethanol production (-4.5%) and textiles (-3.4%). On the other hand, the sector of wood, with a change of 0.3%, registered the only positive rate this month.

In the cumulative index over the first quarter 2015, the value of the real payroll decreased 4.9% and increased the pace of decline seen in the last quarter of 2014 (-3.9%), both comparisons made against the same period in the previous year. The rates were negative in the 18 activities surveyed, pushed, mainly, by the drops in means of transportation (-8.8%), communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-11.1%), fabricated metal products (-10.5%), machinery and equipment (-3.7%), basic metals (-7.2%), mining and quarrying industries (-4.9%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-7.3%), footwear and leather (-8.7%), rubber and plastic (-3.9%), food and beverages (-1.2%) and paper and press (-2.4%).

In the quarterly analysis, the value of the real payroll in the industry, shrinking 4.9% in the third quarter of 2015, registered the third consecutive quarter of negative results with a clear loss of pace over the indexes of the first (-2.1%), second (0.5%), third (-2.9%) and fourth (-3.9%) quarters of 2014 - all comparisons against the same periods last year. The dynamism loss between the last quarter last year and the first quarter of 2015 was seen in 12 of the 18 sectors surveyed, with a highlight to means of transportation (-4.6% to -8.8%), mining and quarrying industries (-2.4% to -4.9%), basic metals (-3.3% to -7.2%), non-metallic mineral products (0.9% to -2.3%), paper and press (-0.6% to -2.4%), other products of the manufacturing industry (-4.3% to -7.3%), chemicals (0.8% to -0.3%) and communication and electric-electronic machinery and apparatus (-9.6% to -11.1%). On the other hand, the sector of food and beverages, which increased from -3.4% in the October-December period of 2014 to -1.2% in the following quarter, registered the main gain between the two periods.

The annualized rate, showing reduction of 2.8% in March 2015, posted the most intense negative result since January 2004 (-3.0%) and kept the downward trend stated in January 2014 (1.6%).