The twelfth estimate of the national harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds[i] added up to 192.8 million metric tons [ii], 2.4% higher than that obtained in 2013 (188.2 million metric tons) and 0.9% lower than the survey of November 2014. The estimated area to be harvested (56.3 million ha) increased 6.6% over 2013 (52.8 million ha) and declined 0.1% in relation to November. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which altogether represented 92.0% of the production estimate and accounted for 84.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2013, there were area increases of 516 ha for rice (0.0%) and of 2.4 million ha for soybeans (8.5%). Corn had its area to be harvested reduced by 83,399 ha (-0.5%). As to the production in relation to 2013, highs of 3.3% for rice and of 5.8% for soybeans were reported, as well as a decline of 5.4% for corn. The third projection of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds for 2015 was 202.9 million metric tons, 5.2% above the harvest in 2014. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/agropecuaria/lspa.

The regional distribution of the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was: Central-West, 83.0 million t; South, 70.8 million t; Southeast, 17.9 million t; Northeast, 15.6 million t and North, 5.5 million t. The survey registered an increase of 11.1% in the North Region, 30.5% in the Northeast Region and 5.7% in the Central-West Region over the last harvest. The South and Southeast decreased by 3.1% and 9.3%, respectively, in relation to 2013.

 December estimate in relation to November

In December, the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production highlighted the negative changes of the following production estimates, compared with November: triticale (3.5%), wheat (16.7%), oat (21.5%) and rye (22.6%).

Influenced by the reports of the South Region, the production of oat, rye, wheat and triticale (winter cereals) decreased in relation to November.   These crops were very affected by damaging weather and pests. As the main cereal in this period, wheat registered in December an estimated production for the 2014 harvest of 6,176,786 t and an expected average yield of 2,207 kg/ha, respectively less 16.7% and 17.1% when compared with November. The planted area and the area to be harvested increased 0.5%.

December estimate in relation to 2013

Among the 26 main products, 15 recorded a rise in the estimated production in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (26.0%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (35.9%), paddy rice (3.3%), potatoes - 3rd crop (24.6%), cacao nuts (7.3%), coffee beans (canephora) (22.2%), onions (6.4%), bean seed - 1st crop (29.1%), bean seed - 2nd crop (1.3%), castor beans (203.8%), cassava (8.8%), corn grain - 2nd crop (3.9%), soybean grain (5.8%), sorghum grain (3.9%) and wheat grain (8.0%). Eleven products posted a negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (14.6%), oat grain (23.0%), potatoes - 1st crop (0.8%), potatoes - 2nd crop (0.2%), coffee beans (arabica) (15.6%), sugarcane (6.7%), barley grain (19.7%), bean seed - 3rd crop (9.7%), oranges (8.8%), corn grain - 1st crop (10.4%) and triticale grain (5.8%).

The most significant rises in relation to 2013 were soybeans (4,743,073 t), cassava (1,862,046 t) and corn - 2nd crop (1,786,174 t). The highest drops were sugarcane
(-49,304,807 t), corn - 1st crop (-3,568,492 t) and oranges (-1,432,688 t).

Third projection for 2015 harvest

In the third projection for the 2015 harvest, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds was estimated at 202.9 million metric tons, 5.2% above the crop harvested in 2014. This rise was due to increased projections for the Northeast (+24.7%), Southeast (+10.5%) and South (+7.5%). Among the eight main products, six recorded rises in the production: coffea arabica (1.1%), beans - 1st crop (16.2%), peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (18.4%), soybeans (11.4%), paddy rice (3.2%) and corn - 1st crop (3.0%), whereas two posted a negative change in production: upland cotton (-7.4%) and coffea canephora (-1.1%).

Concerning the estimated area, the following products registered positive changes: coffea canephora (0.9%), beans - 1st crop (6.5%), soybeans (3.1%) corn - 1st crop (1.3%). The following products recorded negative changes: upland cotton (-7.9%), rice (-1.0%) and coffea arabica (-2.0%), whereas peanuts - 1st crop remained virtually stable (0.0%) by reducing only 21 hectares.

The figures estimated in the regions and states surveyed were added to the projections based on the information obtained in previous years, in the case of Federation Units with no initial estimates.

Average figures in the last five years with extreme values eliminated were used to compute the projection for the 2015 harvest. Field information accounted for 68.0% of the estimated national production, while the estimates accounted for 32.0%.

UPLAND COTTONSEED - The third projection posted an increase of 0.1% in relation to the previous month, adding up to 3,972,695 t. In relation to 2014, the production should fall 7.4% and the planted and harvested areas, 8.0% and 7.9%, respectively. The expected average yield should rise 0.5%.

The biggest producers of cotton in Brazil, Mato Grosso (59.0%) and Bahia (27.4%), repeated the production estimates reported in November. The highest changes were reported in Piauí, which increased its estimated production by 32.1%, from 40,798 t to 53,905 t, and Mato Grosso do Sul, which reported a reduction of 5.9% in relation to the previous month.

PADDY RICE - The estimated production of rice for the 2015 harvest was 12,539,971 t, representing an increase of 0.3% in relation to the previous month, despite the drop of 1.2% in the area to be harvested. The average yield was adjusted in 1.5% in December, changing from 5,307 kg/ha to 5,389 kg/ha. The production should grow 3.2% in relation to the previous year, highlighted by the average yield, which should increase 4.2%, while the planted area and the area to be harvested should drop 1.3% and 1.0%, respectively.

As the biggest national producer, Rio Grande do Sul should contribute with 68.6% of the production (or 8,598,757 t) in an area of 1,124,565 ha and with an average yield of 7,646 kg/ha, the latter increasing 2.2% in relation to the previous month. The planted area dropped 2.4%. The producers had been planting soybeans in fallow lands of rice.

TOTAL COFFEE BEANS - The expected production for 2015 added up to 2,721,199 t. The expected production of coffea arabica added up to 1,938,432 t or 32.3 million 60 kg sacks, an increase of 1.1% over 2014. Although 2015 should be a "low" year, its production should surpass that of 2014, which lost 15.6% against 2013.

The estimated production of coffea canephora in 2015 dropped 1.1%, changing from 791,512 t or 13.2 million 60 kg sacks to 782,767 t or 13.1 million 60 kg sacks, reflecting the reduced production of Espírito Santo. As the biggest producer of this species, Espírito Santo contributed with 74.8% of the national production with an expected production of 585,570 t or 9.8 million 60 kg sacks. Espírito Santo reported drops of 15.7% in the planted area, of 0.4% in the area to be harvested and of 1.8% in the average yield in relation to 2014, which recorded an increase of 21.8% over 2013 and was considered a very good year for coffee crops in this state.

BEAN SEED - 1st crop - The third estimate for the area to be planted was 1,798,664 hectares, 0.9% lower than that in the previous month, reflecting the low prices paid to producers. The average yield should rise 3.2%, resulting in an increase of 2.3% in the estimated production, which should reach 1,636,269 t.

The highest percentage changes in relation to 2014 were the rise in Piauí (85.8%) and the drop in Mato Grosso do Sul (-69.6%). As the biggest producer with a participation of 21.1% of the total, Paraná estimated a reduction of 18.1% against 2014.

By increasing 76.5% and 79.1% in Piauí and Bahia, respectively, the production of beans - 1st crop should grow 16.2% compared with 2014.

CORN GRAIN - 1st crop – The estimated production reached 31,515,697 t, representing a rise of 1.0% in relation to the previous month and reflecting the increase of 1.1% in the average yield, which changed from 5,090 kg/ha to 5,146 kg/ha. Compared with the previous year, the production should grow 3.0%, reflecting the estimated increase of 1.3% in the harvested area and of 1.7% in the expected yield in relation to 2014. Minas Gerais remained the leader with an estimate of 6,070,241 t.

SOYBEAN GRAIN – The third projection estimated a production of 96,288,404 t, 0.9% above the information reported in the previous month. Such growth could be explained by the increases in the estimates of area and average yield: 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. The expected increase in relation to 2014 was of 11.4% for the production, 3.1% for the area to be harvested and 8.0% for the average yield.

As a reflection of the prices, the production of soybeans should stand out in 2015 as it did in 2014. Although the prices decreased last year, they were still favorable when compared with those of other commodities. By participating with 28.4% of the total harvested (27,340,529 t), Mato Grosso should be the biggest producer of soybeans in Brazil in 2015.