In November 2014, the national industrial output dropped 0.7% over the immediately previous month in the seasonally adjusted series, after changing -0.3% in September and 0.1% in October. Compared with the same month of the previous year, the overall industry registered a fall of 5.8% in November 2014, the ninth negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and the most intense since last June (-6.9%). As a result, the industrial sector recorded a cumulative drop of 3.2% in the first 11 months of the year. By declining 3.2% in November 2014, the cumulative indicator in the last 12 months maintained the downward trend started last March (2.0%) and posted the highest negative figure since January 2010 (-4.8%).

The complete publication of the survey and all its results can be accessed on page https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/2014/pimpfbr/.

Indicators of Industrial Production by Major Economic Categories
Brazil - November 2014

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

11 out of 24 sectors surveyed drop in November

The reduction of 0.7% in the industrial activity between October and November showed negative figures in three out of the four major economic categories and in 11 out of the 24 sectors surveyed. By declining 3.4%, food products registered the main negative impact. Other negative contributions came from the activities of coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.1%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-4.0%), basic metals (-1.9%), mining and quarrying industries (-0.7%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-2.8%) and machinery and equipment (-1.0%). Among 12 sectors that expanded the production in November, the most important performances were recorded in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (1.2%), miscellaneous manufacturing (11.9%), pharmaceuticals and pharm-chemicals (3.6%) and non-metallic mineral products (1.3%). It is worth highlighting that these activities posted negative rates last October: -2.0%, -3.7%, -10.3% and -2.1%, respectively.

Still comparing with the previous month, durable consumer goods (-2.1%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-1.3%) registered the sharpest drops, both of them recording two consecutive months of negative figures, when they posted cumulative losses of 3.6% and 1.8%, respectively. By negatively changing 0.2%, the segment of capital goods also registered a drop in the production and halted two consecutive months of positive rates, when it recorded a cumulative expansion of 1.0%. In November 2014, the sector producing intermediate goods (0.0%) repeated the same level of the previous month and posted a null change for the second month in a row.

Quarterly moving average changes -0.3%

Still in the seasonally adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index pointed to a negative change of 0.3% in the quarter ended in November, against the previous month, after having recorded positive rates in September (0.4%) and October (0.1%). Among the major economic categories, intermediate goods (-0.6%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%) posted negative rates. On the other hand, positive indexes were reported by durable consumer goods (1.5%) and capital goods (0.3%).

Industrial output falls 5.8% compared with November 2013

Compared with the same month last year, the industrial sector fell 5.8% in November 2014. Negative figures prevailed, since all four major economic categories and the majority (22) of the 26 sectors declined the production. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-14.4%) and food products (-8.7%) exerted the highest negative influences. Other relevant negative contributions to the overall industry came from basic metals (-11.4%), machinery and equipment (-8.8%), fabricated metal products (-12.1%), computer equipment, electronic and optical products (-14.1%), other chemicals (-5.3%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-9.2%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-1.7%), rubber and plastic products (-5.0%) and non-metallic mineral products (-4.7%). Among the four activities that increased the production, the main impact was reported by mining and quarrying industries (4.1%).

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, durable consumer goods (-11.0%) and capital goods (-9.7%) registered the steepest declines among the major economic categories. Like the industry average, the sectors producing intermediate goods (-5.8%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-3.1%) also registered negative rates in November.

The sector producing durable consumer goods declined 11.0% in the monthly index of November 2014, recording the ninth consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison. In November, this sector was particularly pressed by the reduced manufacturing of cars (-10.8%), still influenced by reduced shifts and collective vacations in a number of producing units. Other important negative impacts came from brown goods (-30.4%), motorcycles (-19.9%), furniture (-6.1%) and white goods (-7.6%). By advancing 1.5%, the main positive influence was reported by the group of other household appliances.

By declining 9.7%, the segment of capital goods also recorded the ninth consecutive negative figure in the monthly index. This segment was influenced by the decline reported by the majority of its groups, highlighted by the reduction of 15.9% in capital goods for transportation equipment. The other negative rates were posted in capital goods for agriculture (-17.7%), for construction (-25.7%), for industrial use (-1.1%) and for electricity (-5.5%), whereas the group of capital goods for mixed use (5.7%) registered the only positive figure.

By reducing 3.1%, the segment of semi and non-durable consumer goods also recorded a negative figure in the monthly index. The performance in November was mainly explained by the declines posted in the groups of fuels (-9.7%) and semi-durable (-4.4%). It is worth highlighting the negative figures registered in the sub-sectors of food and beverages for domestic consumption (-1.5%) andnon-durable (-1.3%).

The fall in the production of intermediate goods (-5.8%) was the ninth consecutive negative rate in the comparison against the same month a year ago, and the most intense since April 2012 (-6.0%). The November figure was mainly explained by the decline in the products associated with the activities of food products (-16.3%), basic metals (-11.4%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-14.7%), fabricated metal products (-15.1%), other chemicals (-5.7%), rubber and plastic products (-5.4%), non-metallic mineral products (-4.7%), textiles (-7.7%) and machinery and equipment (-3.0%). The positive pressures were recorded in mining and quarrying industries (4.1%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (1.5%) and pulp, paper and paper products (1.0%). Still in this category, it is worth mentioning the negative figures posted in the groups of inputs for civil construction (-7.7%), which marked the ninth consecutive drop in this type of comparison, and packaging (-1.8%).

Cumulative index in the year falls 3.2%

Considering the cumulative index in the 11 months of 2014, against the same period a year ago, the industrial sector dropped 3.2%. Negative rates prevailed in the four major economic categories, 19 out of the 26 sectors, 61 out of the 79 groups and 63.7% out of the 805 products surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative impact was reported in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-17.3%). Other relevant negative contributions to the overall industry came from the sectors of fabricated metal products (-11.1%), basic metals (-7.1%), machinery and equipment (-5.6%), other chemicals (-4.0%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-7.5%), rubber and plastic products (-4.2%) and food products (-0.9%). Among the seven activities that increased the production, the main influences were recorded in mining and quarrying industries (5.4%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.7%).

Among the major economic categories, the profile of the cumulative index in the 11 months of 2014 showed less dynamism for durable consumer goods (-9.1%) and capital goods (-8.8%), especially pressed by the reduced manufacturing of cars (-15.0%) in the former, and of capital goods for transportation equipment (-16.5%) in the latter. The segments of intermediate goods (-2.9%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%) also registered negative figures in the cumulative index in the year, though less intense than the national average (-3.2%).