In the seasonally-adjusted series, the industrial output declined 2.4% in November 2015 over the immediately previous month, registering the sixth consecutive negative figure and a cumulative loss of 8.3% in this period. This drop was the most intense since December 2013 (-2.8%). Compared with the same month of the previous year in the series not seasonally adjusted, the overall industry dropped 12.4% in November 2015, recording the 21st negative rate in a row in this type of comparison and the sharpest one since April 2009 (-14.1%). In the cumulative index in the 11 months of 2015, the industrial sector reduced 8.1%, deepening the decline of 6.0% recorded in the first semester of 2015. As the overall industry declined 7.7% in November 2015, the annualized rate – cumulative indicator in the last 12 months – posted the most intense loss since November 2009 (-9.4%) and kept the downward trend started in March 2014 (2.1%). Click here to access the complete publication.

Table 1
Indicators of Industrial Output by Major Economic Categories -
Brazil - November 2015

Source: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Indústria
*Seasonally-adjusted series

Output down in 14 out of 24 segments surveyed over October

The drop of 2.4% in the industrial activity between October and November showed a predominance of negative results, reaching three out of the four major economic categories and 14 out of the 24 segments surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative influences were registered in mining and quarrying industries (-10.9%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-7.8%), both intensifying the pace of decline versus the previous month (-1.8% and -1.1%, respectively). It is worth highlighting in this month that these sectors were influenced by the dam rupture in the mining town of Mariana (MG) and the strike of the oil workers. Other important negative contributions came from food products (-2.2%), non-metallic mineral products (-3.5%), computer, electronic and optical products (-6.0%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-3.9%), tobacco products (-14.9%), other chemicals (-4.4%) and other transportation equipment (-3.8%). Among the ten sectors that increased the output, the most important performance was registered by motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (1.3%), basic metals (1.4%), beverages (1.4%), toiletries, soaps, cleaning products and personal hygiene products (0.7%), with the first interrupting three consecutive months of output drops, period in which it registered a cumulative drop of 19.2%; the second intensifying positive rates recorded last October (0.2%); the third reversing a negative change of 0.1% of the previous month; and the last eliminating part of the drop of 2.3% reported in October.

Among the major economic categories, compared with the immediately previous month, intermediate goods (-3.8%) and durable consumer goods (-3.2%) recorded the steepest drops in November 2015, the first remaining dropping since last February and posting a cumulative drop of 10.9% and the second indicating the fourth consecutive negative result, with a drop of 18.9% in this period. The segment of capital goods (-1.6%) also registered a negative rate in this month, with a less intense drop than the national average (-2.4%), yet registering the second consecutive decline and a cumulative loss of 3.7% in this period. Having advanced 0.4%, the sector of semi and non-durable consumer goods marked the only positive result in November 2015, eliminating part of the decline of 1.0% registered in the previous month.

Quarterly moving average declines 1.6%

In the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index declined 1.6% in the quarter ended in November 2015, against the level of the previous month, keeping the downward trend started in October 2014. Among the major economic categories, still in relation to the marginal movement of this index, durable consumer goods (-5.1%) posted the steepest reduction in November, keeping the sequence of negative rates started in December 2014 and registering a loss of 30.7% in this period. The segments of intermediate goods (-2.1%) and capital goods (-0.8%) also registered negative rates in November 2015, with the first keeping the downward trend started in October 2014 and the second proceeding with a negative performance since October 2014 and recording a cumulative decline of 33.0% in this period. The sector of semi and non-durable consumer goods (0.0%) repeated the level of the previous month, after four months of consecutive negative results which posted a cumulative reduction of 2.0%.

Industry declines 12.4% against November 2014

Compared with the same month a year ago, the industrial output dropped 12.4% in November 2015, pointing to a widespread profile of negative figures and reaching the four major economic categories, 24 out of the 26 sectors, 68 out of the 79 groups and 76.4% out of the 805 products surveyed. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-35.3%) exerted the major negative influence on the industry average, pressed, at a great extent, by the drop in the manufacturing of cars, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers, bodies for buses and trucks, and car pieces. Other relevant negative contributions came from coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-12.0%), mining and quarrying industries (-10.5%), computer, electronic and optical products (-34.2%), machinery and equipment (-16.3%), other chemicals (-9.2%), non-metallic mineral products (-13.6%), fabricated metal products (-14.0%), basic metals (-9.0%), plastic and rubber products (-11.6%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-15.2%), other transportation equipment (-21.2%), furniture (-22.9%), textiles (-19.0%) and miscellaneous products (-20.6%). On the other hand, food products (0.7%) and beverages (1.3%) were the two activities that increased the production in November.

Still comparing with the same month a year ago, capital goods (-31.2%) and durable consumer goods (-29.1%) registered the steepest declines among the major economic categories. The sectors producing intermediate goods (-10.8%) and semi and non-durable consumer goods (-4.8%) also recorded negative rates this month, yet below the national average (-12.4%).

The sector of capital goods (-31.2%) registered the 21st consecutive negative rate, with a lower figure than that registered in the previous month (-32.8%). In the formation of the November´s index, this segment was influenced by the retraction of all of its groups, with a highlight to the reduction of 35.2% in capital goods for transportation equipment, pressed by the reduced manufacturing of tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, trucks, vehicles for transportation of goods, trailers and semi-trailers, ships (including oil tankers and platforms), airplanes, buses and rail cars for transportation of goods. The other negative rates were registered by capital goods for mixed use (-37.0%), for construction (-53.8%), for industrial use (-6.5%), for agriculture (-21.5%) and for electricity (-13.1%).

The sector producing durable consumer goods fell 29.1% in the monthly index of November 2015, the 21st negative rate in a row in this kind of comparison and the most intense since June 2014 (-32.8%). In November, this sector was particularly pressed by the reduced manufacturing of cars (-34.2%) and of white (-18.6%), and brown goods (-25.8%), influenced by reduced shifts and collective vacations in a number of producing units. Other important negative impacts came from motorcycles (-37.2%), furniture (-20.7%) and other household appliances (-14.1%).

The production of intermediate goods (-10.8%) posted the 20th  negative rate in a row and the most intense since July 2009 (-11.1%). This result was explained by the decline in the products related to the activities of mining and quarrying industries (-10.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-15.2%), motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-26.4%), other chemicals (-9.2%), basic metals (-9.0%), non-metallic mineral products (-13.7%), fabricated metal products (-15.4%), plastic and rubber products (-11.5%), textiles (-20.9%), pulp, paper and paper products (-4.1%) and food products (-0.9%). The only positive pressure came from machinery and equipment (3.2%).

It is worth highlighting that the reduction in the groups of inputs for civil construction (-17.3%), with the 21st consecutive negative rate, and packaging (-5.9%), which registered the 11th decline compared with the same month a year ago.

The reduction in the production of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-4.8%) was the 13th consecutive negative rate in November 2015 compared with the same month in the previous year, but had a less significant drop than that posted in the months of July (9.1%), August (-7.3%), September (-7.2%) and October (-7.5%). The performance in November was explained by the declines registered in the activities of semi-durable consumer goods (-12.7%), non-durable consumer goods (-10.0%) and fuels (-3.1%). On the other hand, the subsectors of food and beverages processed for domestic consumption (1.1%) registered the only positive result in this category.

Cumulative index in 2015 falls 8.1%

In the cumulative index between January and November 2015 over the same period in the previous year, the industrial sector dropped 8.1%. Negative rates prevailed, since the four major economic categories, 25 out of the 26 sectors, 71 out of the 79 groups and 77.6% out of the 805 products surveyed declined their production. Among the sectors, the main negative impact was reported in motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (-25.6%), pressed by the reduced manufacturing of about 97% of the products investigated in this activity. The highlights were the drops seen in cars, trucks, tractor trucks for trailers and semi-trailers, vehicles for transportation of goods, car pieces, trailers and semi-trailers, and bodies for trucks and buses. Other negative contributions came from the sectors of computer, electronic and optical products (-29.6%), machinery and equipment (-13.8%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (-5.8%), basic metals (-8.5%), food products (-2.8%), fabricated metal products (-10.9%), pharm-chemicals and pharmaceuticals (-12.9%), plastic and rubber products (-8.8%), electrical machinery and apparatus (-11.4%), non-metallic mineral products (-7.2%), other chemicals (-4.7%), wearing apparel and accessories (-10.4%) and textiles (-14.2%). On the other hand, the only positive influence was reported by mining and quarrying industries (4.7%), leveraged by iron ores and crude petroleum oil.

Among the major economic categories, the behavior of the results of the eleven months of 2015 showed lower dynamism for capital goods (-25.1%) and durable consumer goods (-18.3%), particularly pressed by the reduction in the manufacture of capital goods for transportation equipment (-30.6%), in the first category, and of cars (-19.1%) and household appliances (-22.0%), in the second one. The segments of semi and non-durable consumer goods (-6.9%) and of intermediate goods (-4.9%) also registered negative rates in the cumulative index in the year. The former segment declining below the magnitude of the drop of the national average (-8.1%), and the latter recording the most moderate decline among the major economic categories.