The fourth estimate of the national harvest of grain, legumes and oilseeds in 2017 added up to 233.1 million tonnes, 26.2% higher than that obtained in 2016 (184.7 million tonnes). The estimated area to be harvested was of 60.8 million hectares, representing an increase of 6.5% over the area harvested in 2016 (57.1 million hectares). The output and the area increased 1.2% and 0.2% in relation to the March report, respectively. Rice, corn and soybeans were the three main products in this group, which, altogether, represented 93.7% of the production estimate and accounted for 87.9% of the area to be harvested. The area for soybeans increased 2.4%, the area for corn, 16.5%, and the area for rice, 3.3% in relation to the previous year. Concerning the output, the increases were of 17.5% for soybeans, 13.5% for rice and 46.8% for corn. The complete publication of the survey can be accessed here.

The first crop of beans was estimated at 1,578,494 tonnes. Compared with March, the increase of 1.0% in the output reflected the increase of 1.4% in the estimated planted area. The increase in the expected production of the first crop of beans was mainly due to the state of Pernambuco, whose estimated production was 121.4% higher than in March; the planted area and the average yield also increased by 81.5% and 26.9%, respectively.

The second crop of beans was estimated with a decrease of 3.2% over the March estimate, reflecting the drop in the planted area (-2.6%). The forecast of the average yield also reduced (-0.7%). The decrease in the expected output of the second crop of beans was mainly due to the state of São Paulo, whose planted area shrank 41.0% over March, causing the estimated production to reduce by 60.9%, which represented a loss of 45,139 tonnes.

Concerning the third crop of beans, an increase of 1.0% was expected in the production estimate in relation to March. The biggest producers in this harvest were Minas Gerais (40.8%) and Goiás (31.5%). In Minas Gerais, GCEA/MG expected an increase of 5.4% in the production estimate over March. For Goiás, GCEA/GO expected a reduction of 3.5%. 

ORANGES - The production estimate of oranges reached 14,586,402 tonnes, representing a reduction of 1.5% over the last month. The area to be harvested retracted 3.7%, while the average yield increased 2.3%. The data reflected the reduction in the output estimates in São Paulo and Paraná this month, which were 1.6% and 7.5%, respectively. These Federation Units accounted for 77.9% of the overall production in 2016.

A significant reduction in the planted area has been noticed in São Paulo over the last years, due to a long period of depreciation in the prices of this fruit. As the biggest national producer, São Paulo accounted for 70.0% of oranges produced in Brazil. However, the recent recovery of the prices of orange boxes have been encouraging the producers to increase their investment in the orchards. A rainier weather has also been fostering the production in the orchards in São Paulo.

CORN GRAIN - The national production of corn remained encouraging in 2017, now that the first crop has been harvested and most of the second crops have been planted. The surveys carried out in April pointed out to a new increase in the output, which should hit 93,457,859 tonnes, representing an increase of 1.2% in relation to the estimate last month. This rise was mainly due to the increase of 2.4% in the cropped area of small-harvest corn, which should add up to 11,988,263 hectares, as well as to the revision of the average yield of the first crop of corn by 0.9%, reaching 5,446 kg/ha.

Even considering the positive revision of 0.9% in the average yield of the production of corn - 1st crop, the surveys carried out in April pointed out that the volume harvested should not be much different than that reported in the previous month, adding up to 30,266,439 tonnes and offset by the reduction of 0.8% in the harvested area, estimated at 5,557,535 hectares. The production in Goiás significantly increased (3.0%), mainly influenced by the revision in the harvested area, which showed a rise of 2.3%. On the other hand, the output of corn - 1st crop dropped 3.2% in the Northeast Region, highlighted by Bahia. As the biggest regional producer, Bahia recorded a production 10.7% lower than that expected last month, since the crop areas were adjusted and should reach 363,800 hectares, a reduction of 9.9%. A drought between December and January precluded the plantation of at least 50,000 hectares in this state, also impacting the average yield by 0.9%, which should hit 3,998 kg/ha. In the first crop of this grain, the Northeast Region should be responsible for 32.9% of the area harvested in Brazil. As a result of the low average yield obtained (2,274 kg/ha), it represented only 13.7% of the volume produced in this period.  

Once again, the second crop of corn was positively revised, increasing 1.7% over the last month and reaching 63,191,420 tonnes. This rise was mainly due to the increase in the production areas, which should hit nearly 12 million hectares, 2.3% more than in the previous survey. Mato Grosso do Sul, which should account for 14.4% of the overall production in this period, estimated an increase of 104,438 hectares in the planted area in April. It should increase the state production by 7.9%, since the average yield also rose 1.5%. GCEA/MS estimated an output of 9,078,000 tonnes in the second crop in 2017. The production in Paraná, which accounted for 22.0% of the small harvest, was also positively revised by 1.5%, reaching 13,877,010 tonnes. These data were mainly influenced by the increase in the planted area by 27,340 hectares.

SOYBEAN GRAIN - Having harvested nearly all the crops, the expected record harvest in 2017 was about to confirm. After updating the data in April, the production remained increasing, now estimated at 112,858,921 tonnes, representing an increase of 1.7% when compared with the volume released last month. The confirmation of the good performance of the crops influenced the revision of the estimate of the average yield, which was raised by 1.8% and should reach 3,327 kg/ha as a national average. The states of Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais stood out, as their average yield increased 1.6%, 2.8%, 5.0% and 7.1%, respectively.  

GCEA/PR raised the production estimate in Paraná by 1.8%. As the second biggest soybean producer in Brazil and accounting for 17.4% of the overall production, Paraná should produce 19,584,146 tonnes, a record volume in the state. The harvest was virtually complete and the climate conditions were ideal for the development of this crop, which, coupled with the high technology used by its producers, should register an average yield of 3,651 kg/ha or 60.9 sacks/ha, a new state record.

The state of Mato Grosso do Sul had its output positively revised by 6.0%, hitting 8,756,373 tonnes. According to GCEA/MS, this harvest recorded a higher productivity, estimated at 3,402 kg/ha, due to the good climate conditions during the development of the crop, which was considered a 'super harvest'. This state should account for 7.8% of the national output this year, ranking in the fifth position among the Federation Units.

 GCEA/MG registered a significant increase of 7.1% in the average yield in Minas Gerais, which should reach 3,433 kg/ha. The early harvest unveiled an improvement in the productivity in the municipalities, mainly in the Northeast, Minas Gerais Triangle and High Paranaíba. This increase directly impacted the rise in the state output, which should hit 4,905,415 tonnes, a volume 6.8% higher than that released in the previous month.

WHEAT - The production estimate of wheat reached 5,633,928 tonnes, representing a reduction of 2.8% over the last month. The area to be planted and the average yield decreased by 2.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

GCEA/PR reduced the production estimate in Paraná this month by 4.4%, when compared with the previous month. A total of 3,149,806 tonnes of the product should be harvested. Considering that the prices were not so rewarding and the high risk in this activity due to the climate uncertainties, many producers preferred to anticipate the cropping of soybeans in order to assure a bigger 'planting window' for the second crop of corn. Up to the end of the period, the cropping was made in about 15.0% of the expected area. The crops planted hitherto showed a nice aspect, passing through the stages of germination (80.0%) and vegetative growth (20.0%).

April's estimate in relation to the production in 2016

Among the 26 major products, 15 recorded a positive percentage change in the estimated production in relation to the previous year: upland cottonseed (7.6%), peanuts in the shell – 2nd crop (36.6%), paddy rice (13.5%), potatoes - 1st crop (4.0%), potatoes - 2nd crop (3.5%), cacao nuts (10.5%), coffee beans - canephora (24.6%), sugarcane (0.3%), onions (1.7%), bean seed - 1st crop (38.4%), bean seed - 2nd crop (35.4%), corn grain - 1st crop (24.1%), corn grain - 2nd crop (60.9%), soybean grain (17.5%), and sorghum grain (64.3%). Eleven products registered a negative change: peanuts in the shell - 1st crop (-1.6%), oat grain (-21.9%), potatoes - 3rd crop (-6.7%), coffee beans - arabica (-14.7%), barley grain (-5.1%), bean seed - 3rd crop (-0.6%), oranges (-8.4%), castor beans (-50.8%), cassava (-9.6%), wheat grain (-15.9%) and triticale grain(-2,8%).