In October 2014, the national industrial output remained unchanged (0.0%) in relation to that of the previous month...

In October 2014, the national output of industry remained unchanged (0.0%) in relation to that of the previous month, in the seasonally adjusted series, after recording negative change of 0.2% in September. In series without adjustment, against the same month a year ago, industry faced decline of 3.6%, the eighth consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison. As a result, the industrial sector recorded decrease of 3.0% in the ten months of the year. The annualized rate, the cumulative indicator in the last 12 months, having decreased 2.6% and remained on a downward trend since last March (2.0%), recorded the main negative result since September 2012 (-2.9%).

The complete publication is available at https://www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/industria/2014/pimpfbr

Sixteen of the 24 subsectors surveyed recorded decrease in October

The national activity of industry (0.0%) repeated, in October 2014, the level reached in the previous month, but there was predominance of those facing output decline, once 16 of the 24 subsectors surveyed presented decrease. The main negative contributions came from pharmaceuticals (-9.7%) and motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (-2.2%). Other important negative contributions to the industry overall came from the activities of non-metallic mineral products (-2.1%), rubber and plastic products (-1.7%), leather, travel articles and footwear (-3.2%), tobacco products (-6.2%) and beverages (-1.3%). On the other hand, among the six subsectors which recorded increase of output in the month, the best food products (2.5%). It is worth mentioning the positive impacts from the subsectors of computer equipment, electronic and optical products (4,7%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (0.9%) and other transportation equipment (5.0%).

Among the major economic categories, also in comparison with the previous month, intermediate goods and capital goods (0.0%) followed the overall result of industry and repeated the same level as in September. The sectors which produce durable consumer goods (-0.8%) and semi-durable and non-durable goods (-0.6%) recorded decrease of output in the month.

Quarterly moving average changes by 0.1%

Also in the seasonally-adjusted series, the evolution of the quarterly moving average index for the industry overall brought increase of 0.1% in the quarter which ended in October. It was the second consecutive result, with decline in relation to September (0.3%). Among the economic categories, durable consumer goods (0.9%) and capital goods (0.2%) recorded increases. The segment of intermediate goods (0.0%) repeated the same levels as in the previous month, whereas the sector which produces semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, with change of -0.1%, presented the only negative rate.

Compared with the October 2013 figure, industrial output fell 3.6%

The comparison with the same month a year ago shows decrease of 3.6% in October 2014, with a widespread presence of negative results in regional terms, since the four major economic categories and most of (23) the 26 subsectors surveyed recorded decline of output. Among the activities, motor vehicles, trailers and trunks , which recorded decrease of 16.5%, accounted for the main negative contributions to the average of industry. Other relevant negative contributions to the national total came from the subsectors of metal products (-13.9%), basic metals (-8.3%), machinery and equipment (-8.0%), other chemicals (-5.7%), electrical machinery and apparatuses (-6.5%) and non-metallic mineral products (-4.6%). On the other hand, among the three activities with increase of output, the main impacts came from mining and quarrying industry (6.4%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (6.3%).

Also in the comparison with the same month in the previous year, capital goods (-11.4%) and durable consumer goods (-9.4%) recorded the main decreases among the major economic categories. The segments of intermediate goods (-2.8%) and of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (-0.1%) also recorded negative results in the month, but not as negative as the national average (-3.6%).

The sector producing capital goods fell 11.4% in terms of the monthly index, the eighth consecutive negative rate in this type of comparison, worse than in the previous month (-9.5%). The segment was affected by the decrease observed in most of its groups, the main highlight being 19.8% of capital goods for tranportation equipment. The other negatiove rates were recorded by agricultural capital goods (-18.5%), for construction (-19.5%), for industrial use (-3.0%) and for electricity(-3.6%), whereas the group capital goods for mixed use (6.6%) presented the only positive result.

The segment of durable consumer goods, having decreased 9.4% in terms of the monthly index, and also recorded the eighth consecutive negative result and bigger decrease than in September (-7.1%). In October, the sector was influenced by the reduced production of cars (-13.3%). Other important negative impacts came from brown goods (-19.5%), motorcycles (-17.2%), furniture (-5.3%) and white goods (-4.2%). On the contrary, the main positive influence was observed in other household appliances (1.7%).

The reduction in the output of intermediate goods (-2.8%) in October 2014, the eighth consecutive negative rate in comparison with the same month a year ago, resulted mainly from the decreases in products related to the following activities: motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (-13.2%), metal products (-16.1%), basic metals (-8.3%), other chemicals (-5.8%), non-metallic mineral products (-4.6%), rubber and plastic products (-3.6%), food products (-1.5%), machinery and equipment (-5.3%) and textiles (-6.0%). Positive contributions came from mining and quarrying industry (6.4%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (7.4%). Also in this category, it is also worth mentioning the negative results observed in the groups of inputs for civil construction (-6.0%), which recorded the eighth consecutive decrease in this type of comparison, and packaging (-3.3%), which faces decrease once more after having increased 0.6% last September.

Also in the comparison with the same month a year ago, the segment of semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, with change of -0.1%, also recorded a negative result and reversed the expansion of 2.0% observed in September. The performance of the month resulted from the decrease in the subsector of semi-durable goods (-3.0%). On the other hand, fuels (3.9%) recorded the only positive result in the month, whereas the groups of non-durable goods (0.0%) and food and beverages (0.0%) remained unchanged in the month-on-month comparison.

Cumulative index in the year falls 3.0%

The cumulative index of the first 10 months of 2014, compared with the same period a year before, reflected the decrease of industrial production (3.0%), with a widespread presence of negative rates, reaching three of the four major economic categories, 19 of the 26 subsectors, 58 of the 79 groups and 63.0% of the 805 products surveyed. Among the sectors, the main negative impact came from motor vehicles, trailers and trunks (-18.0%). Other relevant negative contributions to the national total came from the subsectors of metal products (-11.4%), basic metals (-6.6%), machinery and equipment (-5.3%), other chemicals (-4.3%), electrical machinery and apparatuses (-7.7%) and rubber and plastic products (-3.9%). On the other hand, among the three activities with increase of output, the main impacts came from mining and quarrying industry (5.5%), coke, petroleum products and biofuels (3.2%) and pharmaceuticals (5.4%).

Among the main economic categories, the profile of results for the cumulative index in the year in the first ten months of 2014 recorded less dynamism in durable consumer goods (-9.6%) and capital goods (-8.8%), mainly affected the decrease of output of cars (-16.7%), in the former one, and transportation equipment (-16.6%), in the latter. The segment of intermediate goods (-2.5%) also recorded a negative result in the cumulative index in the year, but with less significant decrease than the national average (-3.0%). On the other hand, the sector producing semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods (0.2%) was the only one presenting a positive rate.